JSE Direct with Simon Brown JustOneLap.com

Nvidia's Financial Performance
Nvidia's Q1 Results: Revenue up 262% year-on-year to $26 billion. Net income up 628% year-on-year to $14.9 billion. Gross margins at 78.9%. Stock Split: 10-for-1 stock split set for 7 June. Market Reaction: Stock traded over $1,000 in the aftermarket.
Anglo American and BHP Group BHP's Third Offer: Anglo American rejects BHP’s third offer. Deal Concerns: Issues with the price and risk of the deal. Next Steps: Extended deadline for BHP's offer to 29 May. Richemont's* Results Richemont's Position: Holding steady in a tough luxury market. Earnings Growth: Expected around 10% over the next few years. Preferred Stock: Richemont favored over LVMH for its focused luxury product line. Copper Market Copper Boom: Strong performance but cautious outlook due to potential price pullbacks. Investment Options: Local ETNs and offshore ETFs available for copper investment. Structured Products Educational Video: Power Hour session on structured products by Kevin Swartz from Standard Bank. Features: Capital protection and enhanced upside. Pick n Pay's Plan Sales Update: For 52 weeks ending 25 February, bleak results expected. Market Reaction: Stock closed 4.5% higher on news of a plan. South African Economic Indicators CPI Inflation: 5.2% for April. Primary Surplus: Revenue exceeded expenditure (excluding interest). Vehicle Sector Analysis Companies Covered: Combined Motor Holdings (CMH), WeBuyCars, Motus, and Zeda. WeBuyCars showed strong sales growth. Motus and CMH had high dividend yields. Zeda focuses on car rentals and mobility as a service. CMH preferred for its consistent performance and dividend yield. Home Building Sector Analysis Companies Covered: Calgro M3* and Balwin. Balwin struggling with higher-priced units. Calgro M3's flexible pricing strategy favored in current market conditions. [caption id="attachment_42201" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Calgro M3 vs Balwin[/caption]
Santova Directors' Selling Director Sales: Recent director sales not seen as a significant concern. Market Impact: Director selling viewed as a neutral action. Disclaimer JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with JSE Limited. Views expressed are solely those of the presenter.
* I hold ungeared positions.
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Anglo-American vs. BHP Group Anglo-American rejects BHP Group's offer, unveils its own restructuring plan. Anglo-American to divest De Beers, Anglo-American Platinum, coking coal in Western Australia, and reduce spending on UK fertilizer businesses. Focus on high-quality iron ore and copper assets. Discusses shareholder likelihood of accepting Anglo-American's plan over BHP Group's offer. Discussion on lab-grown diamonds and potential impacts on the market. Market Insights Tencent's positive results impact Naspers and Prosus. NASDAQ and S&P close at all-time highs. Analysis of South African market trends, influenced by gold stocks, Naspers, Prosus, Richemont, and Rand strength.  
[caption id="attachment_42112" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Top40 close 15 May 2024[/caption]
Discussion on upcoming elections' market impact. NHI bill signed, causing sell-off in healthcare stocks. US imposing more tariffs on China, strategic implications discussed. Company Highlights Positive financial results from Calgro M3* and Raubex. Calgro M3 reports good numbers, discusses share buybacks and future prospects.  
[caption id="attachment_42113" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Clagro M3 close 15 May 2024[/caption]
Raubex impresses with strong financial performance, diversification strategies. Preview of forthcoming corporate earnings announcements and economic data releases. Notable events include Richemont*, Palo Alto, Netcare, Astral, Famous Brands, Coronation, UK and US inflation data, FOMC minutes, and Nvidia results.
* I hold ungeared positions.
Simon Brown

Introduction:
Simon Brown kicks off the episode discussing the current state of the Rand, noting its stability leading up to the elections despite fluctuations. Speculation around ANC's momentum in the polls and potential coalition scenarios. The impact of the dollar's weakness on the Rand's performance.
Structured Products: Simon delves into the concept of structured products, which offer capital guarantees and enhanced returns through strategic investment mechanisms like options and bonds. Announcement of an upcoming Power Hour with Standard Bank focusing on structured products. Brief overview of actively managed certificates, also at next weeks Standard Bank Power Hour. FNB's New ETNs: FNB's introduction of new Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs), including a variety of indices and US-listed stocks. Explanation of Compo and Quanto variations, tailored to currency impacts. Highlights of recently launched ETNs, such as Nvidia, Booking Holdings, Eli Lilly, and Palo Alto Networks. Amazon.co.za's Arrival: Simon provides insights into Amazon.co.za's debut in South Africa, discussing initial observations and comparisons with local competitors. Discussion on the potential impact of Amazon's entry on brick-and-mortar retailers and existing online platforms. Exploring Small Caps: Simon poses the question of whether local small caps on the JSE offer value or pose as value traps. Definition and implications of value traps in investments, emphasising the importance of dividends and price appreciation. Insights from John Biccard of Investec on potential post-election performance in small caps. Examination of various small cap stocks, analysing dividend yields, price-to-book ratios, and earnings potential. Simon's perspective on the opportunities and challenges presented by small cap investments, urging caution and strategic analysis. * I hold ungeared positions.
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Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook Jerome Powell's statement from the FOMC meeting: "Inflation remains too high and the path forward is uncertain." No rate cut was announced at the FOMC meeting. Speculation on upcoming rate cut possibilities and their impact on the economy. Local economic outlook and potential changes due to the upcoming election. BHP Group's Interest in Anglo-American BHP Group's* proposal to buy parts of Anglo-American, leading to market speculation. Complexities of the deal and potential impact on stock prices. Analysis of BHP Group's interest in Anglo-American's assets, particularly in copper Potential effects of the deal on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and overall market sentiment. Historical context of Anglo-American's significance in South Africa's mining industry. Chinese Market and Economic Data Overview of China's economic challenges and recent data indicating resilience. Discussion on Chinese stock market performance and factors influencing consumer sentiment.
Oil Market Dynamics Analysis of recent fluctuations in oil prices and underlying supply-demand dynamics. Impact of US oil production and global economic conditions on oil prices. Implications for South African consumers and petrol prices.
Retail Bonds and Sygnia ETF Changes Update on retail bond rates for May and potential changes in June. Sygnia's planned changes to ETFs, including the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Fang AI funds. Clicks Results and Market Analysis
Review of Clicks' financial results and market response. Analysis of Clicks' performance in the retail sector and future outlook. Discussion on Clicks' valuation and potential investment opportunities. * I hold ungeared positions.
 

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Capitec Results: Simon analyzes Capitec's recent financial results, highlighting strong metrics such as return on equity, active clients, and app usage. However, he notes concerns about the bank's expensive valuation compared to its competitors. SARB Monetary Policy Review: Simon discusses the South African Reserve Bank's recent review, indicating a reluctance for rate cuts in the near future due to inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties.
Key takeaway from the bi-annual Monetary Policy Review of the @SAReserveBank:
Don’t bet on a domestic interest rate cut this year. https://t.co/mhRS5vKIFQ pic.twitter.com/sc5p9GPcf5
— Adrian Saville (@AdrianSaville) April 24, 2024
 
Sasol Woes: Simon discusses Sasol's poor performance following a production update, expressing skepticism about its future prospects despite its low stock price.
Other Market Updates: Simon touches on Tencent's positive performance, gold and oil price movements, and the potential impact on global markets
* I hold ungeared positions.
 

UK and Local Inflation:
UK inflation surprises at 3.2%, lowest in over two years. US Fed unlikely to cut rates soon, waiting for FOMC meetings. South Africa's CPI data for March at 5.3%, showing a positive trend. Potential for SA rate cuts, depending on US decisions. [caption id="attachment_41866" align="aligncenter" width="849"] SA Inflation 5.3% for March 2024[/caption]
China and Commodities: China's GDP surpasses expectations at 5.3%, amid concerns over Fitch downgrade. Export data reflects overstocking, driving prices down. Despite challenges, China's market appears interesting. [caption id="attachment_41867" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Chinese GDP YearONYear per quarter[/caption]
PGMs, oil, gold, and other commodities. Gold remains strong, targeting $2500. Recent attack on Israel by Iran affects oil prices. WeBuyCars listing and potential market impact. Transaction Capital analysis and investor considerations.

Purple Capital* Results: Purple Capital swings back to profit, surprising the market. Key financial highlights and insights into EasyEquities performance. Exploration of new products and their impact on revenue. Analysis of client cohort growth and its implications. Positive outlook on Purple Capital's performance. Expectations of potential price pullback. Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.