Less Noise, More Signal

Pascal

Welcome to Less Noise, More Signal. In a world saturated with news, hype, and endless chatter, finding clarity can seem like searching for a needle in a haystack. I have taken on this challenge and made it my mission to cut through the noise by amplifying the signal. Who am I? I am Pascal Hügli. With a background in political philosophy, a career in investment management, and a deep expertise in Bitcoin and digital assets, I am here to explore the ideas and connections that others do not bother to see. It’s not just about finding the right answers; it’s about asking the right questions. In each episode, I interview the most insightful thinkers in their respective fields. Every guest contributes a vital piece to the puzzle, helping us form a clearer picture of the forces shaping our world of macro, finance, and money. Listen in as my guests and I tilt the balance from noise to signal, one podcast episode at a time. Let’s cut through the clutter and focus on what truly matters. Ready to elevate your understanding? Let’s dive in.

  1. 2 DAYS AGO

    The Truth About Bitcoin, Gold & Liquidity (w/ Michael Nadeau)

    In this conversation Michael Nadeau and Pascal Hügli share insights into the unique characteristics of Bitcoin, the dynamics of the crypto market, and the importance of liquidity and macroeconomic factors. They discuss investment strategies, the significance of production costs in determining Bitcoin's fair value, and the role of developer activity in blockchain ecosystems. Additionally, they analyze how to value blockchains and the serious nature of meme coins in the investment landscape. Chapters: 00:00 Introduction Michael Nadeau 02:09 Understanding Bitcoin vs. Other Cryptos 03:30 The Unique Nature of Bitcoin 05:16 Bitcoin's Correlation with Other Cryptos 06:20 Market Dynamics and Bitcoin's Influence 09:40 Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Misleading Comparison 12:21 Liquidity and Its Impact on Bitcoin 14:20 Defining Liquidity and Debasement 17:51 Assessing Bitcoin's Fair Value 21:09 Technical Analysis and Market Trends 25:18 Market Outlook for Q4 27:31 SEC Investigations of BTCTCs 30:28 Valuing Layer-1 Blockchains 36:40 Real On-Chain Yield: Definition and Implications 39:10 Comparing Solana vs. Ethereum 42:20 The Role of Developer Activity and Economic Security 51:17 Net Dilution Rate and Its Importance 54:41 Analyzing Meme Coins: A New Perspective Check out our sponsors👇 https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnms Blockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥 https://bitbox.swiss/lnms BitBox is the best in class hardware wallet, I personally trust and use! Get 5% off your first order with discount code LNMS🔥 Follow Michael Nadeau: https://x.com/justdeauit https://thedefireport.io/ Follow me👇 Twitter - https://x.com/pahueg Nostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8 Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️ https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignal Bitcoin Book 👇 Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013 Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283 Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us! #DeFi #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #OnChainData #Valuation #Liquidity #Ethereum #Solana #MemeCoins #MarketAnalysis #RealOnChainYield #MEV #Gold #CycleAnalysis #WhaleRetentionRate

    57 min
  2. 24 OCT

    What everyone gets wrong about the current repo market

    In this conversation, Pascal Huegli and Lighthouse Macro (Bob Sheehan) discuss the current state of funding and treasury markets, emphasizing the importance of liquidity and the systemic risks posed by regional banks. He highlights the impact of government actions on market stability and the growing influence of Bitcoin and crypto on traditional financial systems. The discussion also covers shifts in treasury market buyers and the pressures faced by primary dealers, concluding with insights on future risks and the evolving landscape of macro strategy.  Chapters:  00:00 Intro 01:16 Introduction to Lighthouse Macro and Bob's Background  04:11 The Current State of Quantitative Tightening  07:18 Understanding Bank Reserves and Their Importance  09:58 Regional Banks and Systemic Stress  11:45 Measuring Ample Reserves and Stress Indicators  14:16 The Impact of SOFR and Interest on Reserves  17:15 Government Shutdown and Its Effects on Liquidity  19:17 How to play this as an investor 28:16 Shifts in Treasury Market Demand and Supply  31:53 The Surge in Treasury Debt  34:00 Primary Dealers and Market Pressures  36:36 Regulatory Relief and Market Dynamics  39:06 Signs of Deterioration in the Treasury Market  43:46 Volatility as a Feature in Bonds 50:32 Crypto's Impact on Treasury Markets  57:48 Why Bitcoin is too big to fail  Check out our sponsors👇  https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnms  Blockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥  https://bitbox.swiss/lnms  BitBox is the best in class hardware wallet, I personally trust and use! Get 5% off your first order with discount code LNMS🔥   Follow Lighthouse Macro:  https://x.com/lhmacro  Substack:  https://www.lighthousemacro.com/ Follow me👇  Twitter - https://x.com/pahueg  Nostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8    Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️  https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignal    Bitcoin Book 👇  Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013  Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283    Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us!    #LighthouseMacro, #quantitativetightening, #QT, #bankreserves, #treasurymarket, #stablecoins, #liquidity, #investmentstrategies, #crypto, #financialplumbing, #SOFR #Repo

    1h 1m
  3. 16 OCT

    Infranomics: Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Power

    In this conversation, Pascal Hugli and Robert, also known as Infra, share his journey from a nerdy childhood focused on medicine to becoming a macroeconomic enthusiast. He discusses the complexities of macroeconomics, the significance of bond auctions, and the current inflationary pressures affecting the economy. Robert emphasizes the challenges faced by the average American in understanding economic systems and the implications of labor market dynamics. He also explores the role of gold as a safe haven asset amidst currency devaluation and the growing wealth disparity in a K-shaped economy.    Chapters:  00:00 Introduction to Infronomics and Robert's Journey  07:46 Understanding TIPS Auctions and Inflation Perspectives  14:06 How can the Fed be cutting into ATHs  19:01 Labor Market Dynamics and Inflationary Pressures  25:11 Gold, Oil, and Inflation Expectations  33:23 The Silent Depression  36:28 Consumer Spending and Economic Disparity  42:01 Understanding the Silent Recession  47:43 The Decline of Wages and Purchasing Power  53:22 The Shift in Monetary Policy and Debt Dynamics  57:48 Amerizuela: A Failing Denominator  01:05:36 The Importance of Adjusting Denominators    Check out our sponsors👇  https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnms  Blockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥    https://bitbox.swiss/lnms  BitBox is the best in class hardware wallet, I personally trust and use! Get 5% off your first order with discount code LNMS🔥    Follow Robert:   https://x.com/infraa_ Follow me👇  Twitter - https://x.com/pahueg  Nostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8    Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️  https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignal    Bitcoin Book 👇  Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013  Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283    Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us!    #Infronomics #Robert #TIPSAuctions #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicDisparity #SilentRecession #Amerizuela #MonetaryPolicy #ConsumerBehavior

    1h 18m
  4. 13 OCT

    Jamie Coutts: Global liquidity has been slower than expected - Is it changing now?

    In this conversation, Pascal Huegli and Jamie Coutts discuss the current state of the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin's price dynamics, demand factors, and the influence of liquidity and economic growth. They  analyze the role of treasury companies and ETFs in driving Bitcoin's price, compares current market conditions to previous cycles, and assesses risks associated with market positioning. They also emphasize the importance of understanding asset adoption and network growth while outlining future research initiatives aimed at improving crypto investment strategies.    Chapters:  00:00 Introduction and Overview of Bitcoin's Market Dynamics  03:05 Bitcoin Weakness due to Altcoin Rotation  05:51 The Role of Treasury Companies in Bitcoin's Future  08:46 Decreasing Intensity in Bitcoin Profit Taking  11:57 Comparative Analysis of Previous Cycles  15:09 Market Risks and Future Predictions  17:55 MicroStrategy's Positioning and Investment Strategies  26:42 Liquidity Impacts on Market Sentiment  27:51 Business Cycle Just Inflecting Higher  29:55 Altcoins and Market Rotation Trends  31:22 Network Growth and Asset Performance  35:04 Valuing Layer-1 Blockchains  39:52 The Future of Layer One vs Application Value  43:31 What’s Jamie Coutts up to next    Check out our sponsors👇  https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnms  Blockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥    https://bitbox.swiss/lnms  BitBox is the best in class hardware wallet, I personally trust and use! Get 5% off your first order with discount code LNMS🔥    Follow Jamie Coutts:  https://x.com/jamie1coutts    Follow me👇  Twitter - https://x.com/pahueg  Nostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8    Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️  https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignal    Bitcoin Book 👇  Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013  Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283    Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us!    #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #MarketAnalysis #Liquidity #InvestmentStrategies #MicroStrategy #Altcoins #BlockchainTechnology #EconomicCycles #TreasuryCompanies #BusinessCycle #ISM #GlobalLiquidity #BTC #AllTimeHigh #CycleEnd

    49 min
  5. 9 OCT

    Ben Kizemchuk: Bank reserves are now scarce. Expect high volatility

    In this conversation, Pascal Huegli and Ben Kizemchuk discuss the current state of equity markets, focusing on volatility, the implications of the VIX, and the behavior of 'garbage stocks.' They explore the financial plumbing of the U.S. system, including liquidity issues and the impact of treasury issuance. The discussion also touches on inflation trends, defensive investment strategies, and the evolution of market valuation towards a flow-based model. Huegli emphasizes the importance of understanding these dynamics in the context of potential market declines and the future of economic policy. Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and Context 01:50 Why bearish in the short-term 06:08 Understanding Volatility and the VIX 13:32 Garbage Stocks and Shorts 19:19 IWM Breakout or Deleveraging 25:07 Financial System Plumbing and Tax Drain 26:07 Treasury Bill Issuance and TGA Dynamics 28:47 Reserves and Banking System Stress 31:08 NFDI Lending and Market Implications 33:52 Standing Repo Facility and Bank Liquidity 36:44 Why is Bitcoin up 41:31 How to manage risk right now 44:28 Inflation is a real risk 47:43 Liquidity Drawdowns under 4Fs Framework 53:44 The Evolution of Price and Valuation 57:34 From Narratives to Flows in Valuation 01:01:44 The Fragility of Flow-Based Systems 01:04:01 Investment Strategies in a Flow-Dominated Market 01:07:28 GDP Targeting with Reserves 01:13:34 Stablecoins as tokenized Reserves Check out our sponsors👇 https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnms Blockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥 https://bitbox.swiss/lnms BitBox is the best in class hardware wallet, I personally trust and use! Get 5% off your first order with discount code LNMS🔥 Follow Ben Kizemchuk: https://x.com/BenKizemchuk Follow me👇 Twitter - https://x.com/pahueg Nostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8 Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️ https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignal Bitcoin Book 👇 Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013 Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283 Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us! #equitymarkets, #volatility, #VIX, #deleveraging, #liquidity, #inflation, #stablecoins, #marketdynamics, #investmentstrategies, #financialplumbing

    1h 32m
  6. 2 OCT

    How to benefit from digital credit powered by Bitcoin!

    In this conversation, Pascal Huegli and Johan Bergman discuss their journey into Bitcoin, the investment strategies of Michael Saylor, and the intricacies of convertible debt and preferred equity in relation to Bitcoin investments. They emphasize the importance of understanding the capital stack, credit ratings, and risk management in investment strategies. The discussion also touches on the future of Bitcoin, the role of strategic liability reserves, and the potential for new investment opportunities in the evolving financial landscape.    Chapters:  00:00 Intro  01:49 Introduction and Background  06:52 The Journey to Bitcoin Understanding  10:44 Michael Saylor's Investment Strategy  12:00 Convertible Debt and Preferred Equity  17:51 Understanding the Capital Stack  22:31 Investor Attraction to Preferred Stocks  28:12 The Role of Credit Ratings  34:39 Investment Strategies and Arbitrage Opportunities  41:43 The Critique of Bitcoin Yield  45:34 Opportunities in Traditional Finance  47:07 Managing Bitcoin Volatility  47:43 The Flow of Capital into Bitcoin  50:36 Understanding Stock Performance  55:30 Phases of Bitcoin Treasury Companies  56:40 Market Dynamics and Valuation  01:03:01 Expectations for Bitcoin's Future  01:07:24 The Role of Bitcoin in Financial Strategy  01:09:42 Strategic Reserves and Market Preparation  01:12:52 Preparing for Bear Markets  01:18:09 Final Thoughts on Bitcoin Strategy    Check out our sponsor👇  mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnms  Blockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥    Follow Johan Bergman:  https://x.com/johanmbergman    Follow me👇  Twitter - https://x.com/pahueg  Nostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8    Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️  https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignal    Bitcoin Book 👇  Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013  Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283    Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us!  #Bitcoin, #investmentstrategy, #MichaelSaylor, #preferredequity, #convertibledebt, #capitalstack, #creditratings, #riskmanagement, #investmentopportunities, #strategicreserves

    1h 21m
  7. 25 SEPT

    Trader legend Willy Woo: A 80% Bitcoin drawdown again is possible

    In this conversation, Pascal Huegli and Willy Woo discuss his journey in the Bitcoin space, the dynamics of market cycles, and the importance of liquidity. He delves into the four-year cycle of Bitcoin, the role of treasury companies, and the balance between decentralization and centralization. They also explore the use of Bitcoin as collateral, its potential as a medium of exchange, and the challenges faced by hedge fund managers in the current market environment.    Chapters:  00:00 Intro  01:11 Market Dynamics and Current Trends  04:39 Understanding Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle  11:02 Liquidity Cycles and Economic Impacts  15:35 The Role of Bitcoin in Global Macro Economics  20:08 Treasury Companies and Their Impact on Bitcoin  23:52 Using Bitcoin as Collateral and Yield Generation  27:37 Bitcoin as a Medium of Exchange vs. Gold  32:30 Liquidity and Its Importance in Trading  37:37 The Evolution of On-Chain Data Analysis  40:31 Understanding Market Risks and Investor Behavior  46:16 Current Market Trends and Future Predictions    Check out our sponsor👇  mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnms  Blockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥    Follow Willy Woo:  https://x.com/woonomic    Follow me👇  Twitter - https://x.com/pahueg  Nostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8    Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️  https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignal    Bitcoin Book 👇  Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013  Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283    Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us!      #Bitcoin, #liquidity, #marketcycles, #treasurycompanies, #decentralization, #hedgefunds, #tradingstrategies, #economicimpact, #capitalflows, #yieldgeneration

    1h 7m
  8. 18 SEPT

    How your house can help you get ONE Bitcoin

    In this conversation, Pascal Hugli with Joe Consorti and Smeet Bhatt, co-founders of Horizon, discuss the innovative financial product Horizon, which allows homeowners to tap into their home equity to invest in Bitcoin. They explain the mechanics of home equity investments, the potential market size, and the risks involved. They emphasize the importance of Bitcoin as a long-term investment and how Horizon aims to bridge the gap between traditional home equity and cryptocurrency investments. The discussion also touches on the evolving perception of Bitcoin in mainstream media and its growing acceptance as a legitimate financial asset.    Chapters:  00:00 Intro  01:43 Introduction to Horizon and Its Founders  03:57 The Right Time for Bitcoin Innovations  11:47 Horizon: Bridging Home Equity and Bitcoin  16:42 Understanding Home Equity Investments  21:26 Customer Demographics and Use Cases  31:17 Risks and Considerations for Homeowners  39:08 Self-Custody and Future Developments  43:17 Market Potential and Future Outlook    Check out our sponsor👇  mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnms  Blockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥    Follow Joe Consorti:  https://x.com/joeconsorti    Follow Smeet Bhatt:  https://x.com/smeet_bhatt    Follow me👇  Twitter - https://x.com/pahueg  Nostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8    Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️  https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignal    Bitcoin Book 👇  Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013  Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283    Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us!    #Horizon, #bitcoin, #homeequity, #investment, #financialinnovation, #cryptocurrency, #mortgage, #homeowners, #marketanalysis, #financial tools

    53 min

About

Welcome to Less Noise, More Signal. In a world saturated with news, hype, and endless chatter, finding clarity can seem like searching for a needle in a haystack. I have taken on this challenge and made it my mission to cut through the noise by amplifying the signal. Who am I? I am Pascal Hügli. With a background in political philosophy, a career in investment management, and a deep expertise in Bitcoin and digital assets, I am here to explore the ideas and connections that others do not bother to see. It’s not just about finding the right answers; it’s about asking the right questions. In each episode, I interview the most insightful thinkers in their respective fields. Every guest contributes a vital piece to the puzzle, helping us form a clearer picture of the forces shaping our world of macro, finance, and money. Listen in as my guests and I tilt the balance from noise to signal, one podcast episode at a time. Let’s cut through the clutter and focus on what truly matters. Ready to elevate your understanding? Let’s dive in.

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