The Allan Gray Podcast Allan Gray

2022 will probably be remembered for being the year of war and inflation, and the end of a decade of “free money” distorting markets. To put it in perspective, a passive 60:40 offshore balanced fund delivered probably its worst performance in US dollars in 100 years, sending a clear message to investors: Things have changed. Allan Gray chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, joins Tamryn Lamb, head of Retail, to unpack why the year was a turning point for markets and trends. They cover everything from AI and energy to cryptos and tech stocks, as they discuss our approach to navigating the risks and taking advantage of the opportunities that lie ahead.

Although banks are generally geared to economic activity, many local banks proved to be resilient through the COVID-19 pandemic and have been good investments since. But in the current period of high global inflation and slowing economic activity, how will the local banking sector fare? Are there still long-term opportunities? Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker poses this question to investment analysts Pieter Koornhof and Siphesihle Zwane, who have spent time researching some of the biggest names in the sector and determining where the best opportunities lie.

Retirement reform is on the horizon as the National Treasury takes steps to implement the proposed “two-pot retirement system”. The proposed system has the dual aim of creating limited access to retirement fund assets to help savers cope with short-term emergencies and improving the preservation of retirement savings – ultimately producing better retirement saving outcomes. Allan Gray’s head of Assurance, Richard Carter, joins Umbrella Fund specialist Mica Townsend to discuss the challenges with the current system, the complexities of the proposed changes and what the two-pot system will mean for investors, administrators, advisers and the country’s savings pool.

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, hosted by Allan Gray portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Dan Brocklebank, head of Orbis UK, reflects on the most valuable investment truths he has learnt as he celebrates two decades at the firm. Dan joined our offshore partner during the dotcom boom and has seen our shared investment philosophy play out through multiple cycles. During the conversation, he explains how Orbis thinks about investing in an environment shaped by rising geopolitical tension, a growing global energy crisis and rampant inflation. Dan also shares some insight into where Orbis is finding compelling opportunities today, why forecasters are so bad at predicting what will happen tomorrow and why we still believe that the best way to build wealth is by adopting a long-term approach.

Investors in commodity miners and producers have found themselves in one of the better places in the market since the pandemic, owing partly to a lift in demand as countries embarked on stimulus programmes and supply-side constraints keeping a lid on production. Local mining shares were one of the key driving forces behind the FTSE/JSE All Share Index hitting a new high earlier this year. As local investors, we think we are pretty well-versed in analysing and valuing commodity producers, but when you go to a global asset allocation level, there is not nearly the same amount of interest, outside of hedge funds and some niche managers. Allan Gray portfolio managers Sean Munsie and Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and investment analyst Jithen Pillay discuss the cyclical nature of commodities and delve into the various macro issues that are currently impacting commodity prices. They also explore the energy transition and share their views on some of the new opportunities in the sector.

South African inflation just hit its highest peak since 2009, as it accelerated to 7.4% in June, in line with the global trend. Over in the US, inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1% last month. As households around the world grapple with rising food and fuel costs, central banks are faced with the difficult task of hiking interest rates to rein in inflation. Allan Gray portfolio manager Sandy McGregor started his career in the 1970s when, much like today, the world was facing rampant global inflation and an energy crisis. In conversation with Allan Gray portfolio manager Thalia Petousis, Sandy reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting the world. Taking us through a range of scenarios, he shares some important lessons from the past and looks to the future, reminding long-term investors that periods of strife often present opportunities.