F-World: The Fragility Podcast Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, Johan Bjurman Bergman

Philippe Vogeleer is a chartered director specialized in partnerships between companies, governments, and international organizations. Until March 2024 he was the Global Head of Corporate Business Development for Vodafone. Prior to joining Vodafone, Philippe held senior positions for Ooredoo, Orange, and Deloitte. He has lived in 10 countries and worked in more than 100. He holds a master’s degree in law, a master’s degree in media and communications, and an Executive MBA. Philippe now advises a small number of companies as Non-Executive Director and supports the work of international charities, including Global Citizen. He is also a Visiting Lecturer at INSEAD.

We start our conversation by learning about Philippe’s international background, his early interest in human development, and how he discovered the importance of mobile phones and satellite technology. We then take a stroll through the decades with Philippe highlighting the big business opportunities for the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector in each time period - from radio waves in the 1980s and 90s, to networks and services in the 2000s and 2010s. He also reminds us that most people don’t have a laptop, accessing digital tools only on mobile phones, and that today’s opportunity lies in bringing access to the devices.  

We then shift to discussing how we can define the ICT sector and what we mean by digitalization. Also, we ask Philippe to help us understand what fragility looks like on the ground, from an ICT perspective, and how the ICT industry and digitalization can help counter fragility. This leads us to talk about what is needed to build a business case in fragile states or even in conflict areas, how you can engage external partners, and how to convince internal decision makers to take on the risk of investing under more difficult conditions. We also discuss the benefits of digitalization for governments, the main obstacles to closing the digital divide, and the role of AI in digitalization. We wrap up our conversation by considering the finite nature of money, how it can best catalyze digitalization, and the potential future for the ICT industry.

Watch or listen to the episode for so many more insights from Philippe Vogeleer!

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Philippe Vogeleer

philippe.vogeleer@globalpartners4digitaldevelopment.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-partners-for-digital-development

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Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 

X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)


TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:02:11 Philippe’s background – people, places, ideas that charted his path

00:08:16 ICT’s big business opportunities through the decades

00:14:02 What is digitalization? What is the ICT sector?

00:18:13 What is fragility? What does it look like from an ICT perspective?

00:26:15 How can ICT and digitalization help counter fragility?

00:34:30 The business case for digitalization in fragile states and low-income countries

00:45:31 Digitalization benefits for governments

00:54:30 Obstacles to closing the digital divide

01:00:28 The role of AI in digitalization: risks or benefits

01:08:56 The finite nature of money & how to best catalyze digitalization

01:14:01 Potential future for the ICT industry

01:21:03 Wrap-up

Stefan Dercon is Professor of Economic Policy at Oxford University, where he also directs the Center for the Study of African Economics. The author of 5 books and many studies, Stefan has had a distinguished career as an academic and policy advisor on economic development. His accomplishments are many. To name just a few:  between 2011 and 2017, he was Chief Economist of the Department of International Development (DFID), the government department in charge with the UK’s aid policy and spending; between 2020-2022, he was the Development Policy Advisor to successive Foreign Secretaries at the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Stefan is a virtuoso of development! His approach to our conversation was equal parts exciting and instructive, a style that also comes across in his writing, making his book very hard to put down.

We start by learning about Stefan: his experience growing up in Belgium, being taught by Catholic priests about African socialism, Ujamaa and Julius Nyerere, and Marx and discovering his interest in economics as a means of pursuing development. His early career in Tanzania and Ethiopia highlighted the relationship between risk and poverty and the need to consider uncertainty when engaging in policy advice or research. We then shift to talking about the four propositions that compete as diagnoses of core problems of poverty and development that Stefan outlines in his book: poor initial endowments, market failures that trap the poor in poverty, market failures that are costly for poor countries, weak institutions. He gives us an overview and tells us why the propositions fall short on explaining the successes and failures of development. We also talk about the most important trends in development in recent decades: the dramatic decrease in poverty globally, the Africanization of poverty, and the increasing concentration of poverty in fragile states.

The conversation then turns to the elites, what values drive them, and why would they gamble on a development bargain.  We talk about the role of natural resources, political systems, and how external actors can influence the emergence of development bargains. We also discuss the role of Western and Chinese elites in development bargains and what is good policy advice.

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Stefan Dercon

Website: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/people/stefan-dercon

X: https://twitter.com/gamblingondev

LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/stefan-dercon-45927b104

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Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 

X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - x.com/alexmmitran, linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran

EPISODE RESOURCES

Stefan Dercon, “Gambling on Development: Why some Countries Win and Others Lose,” Hurst, London, 2022. https://www.gamblingondevelopment.com

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:24 Stefan’s background

00:02:49 Economics of poverty

00:04:16 Connection between risk & poverty

00:08:16 Brief overview of development thinking

00:14:57 Recent trends in development

00:19:55 The Africanization of poverty & What is fragility

00:25:39 The problem of fixed mental models of fragility

00:28:47 Who are the elites

00:41:11 The gambling in development bargains

00:47:24 What values drive the elites

00:54:25 Natural resource & political systems in dev. bargains

00:58:51 The role of Western & Chinese elites in dev. bargains

01:09:14 Are the elite bargains in the West still dev. bargains

01:19:09 Citizens’ role in dev. bargains

01:29:22 External actors & the emergence of dev. bargains

01:41:28 “Peace is ugly” – can international institutions accept it

01:51:20 Development is 50% history & 50% agency

02:00:40 Private sector role in the dev. bargain

02:09:48 What is goo

Hannes Mueller is a tenured researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis, a researcher center of the Spanish National Research Council. He also directs the master’s program in Data Science for Decision Making at the Barcelona School of Economics. Most recently, his research focus has been on how conflict can be predicted using millions of newspaper articles – a project which drives the conflictforecast.org website. This research project has become a key resource for global work on conflict prevention and has led to collaborations with the Spanish Central Bank, the German Federal Foreign Office, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the UN, World Bank, and many others.

This conversation was a tour de force and covered a lot of topics: from taxes and trust, to fiscal capacity as a dimension of state capacity, to fragility and the macroeconomic implications of violent conflict, to forecasting conflict using machine learning and implications for policy makers.

Hannes gives us a live demonstration of conflictforecast.org and if you’re interested in how AI can help us forecast conflict then this is the conversation for you!

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Hannes Mueller

Website: https://www.hannesfelixmueller.com

Conflict forecast: https://conflictforecast.org

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hannes-mueller-research/

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Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 

X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES

Timothy Besley and Hannes Mueller. 2012. Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland. American Economic Review.

Timothy Besley, Hannes Mueller, Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility In: Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States. Eds: Ralph Chami, Raphael Espinoza, and Peter Montiel, Oxford University Press (2021). International Monetary Fund. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198853091.003.0009

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 20, Issue 6, December 2022

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, & Alessandro Ruggieri. 2022. Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2236.

TIMESTAMPS

(00:00:00) Introduction

(00:01:17) Hannes’s background

(00:03:26) Shock therapy in Poland vs. Russia

(00:05:42) How Hannes’s interest in politics shapes his research

(00:09:09) Institution formation, fragility, & fiscal capacity

(00:16:05) Trust, taxation, & public services

(00:22:06) What is fragility

(00:29:32) Relationship between fragility & violent conflict

(00:33:11) Macroeconomic implications of conflict

(00:37:21) Does conflict always lead to fragility

(00:41:21) Forecasting fragility vs causal understanding

(00:43:42) Human factors & forecasting fragility

(00:50:42) Prevention & forecasting

(00:55:09) Why is conflict prediction a hard problem

(00:58:19) Machine learning for conflict prevention

(01:03:21) What is a good model for conflict prevention?

(01:11:05) Text availability by language for training the model

(01:15:54) Conflictforecast.org demo

(01:25:31) What can you ask the model & what you shouldn’t ask

(01:37:47) How can the model inform policy action & prevention

(01:44:36) How can conflictforecast.org augment human decision making

(01:49:51) The role of stabilizing factors in cross country comparisons

(01:54:22) Hannes’s data wish list

(02:01:26) Do LLMs like ChatGPT impact the model’s performance

(02:04:37) Is there a role for sentiment analysis

(02:08:45) Future research goals

(02:13:08) Institutional myopia

(02:15

Seth Kaplan is a Visiting Fellow with the Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange. He is also a Professorial Lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Senior Adviser for the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and consultant to the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), USAID, and the U.S. Department of State. Seth is the author of three books: “Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development” (2008); “Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States (2013); and “Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity” (2018). His new book, “Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time,” was published on October 17, 2023.

This was an incredibly interesting conversation and full of insights about the fragility present right now in one of the most prosperous countries in the world! We start by talking about how Seth’s experience with fragility around the world helped him spot the fragility present in America’s own neighborhoods and what motivated him to write the book. We then discuss what fragile neighborhoods look like, what makes a neighborhood fragile, and the role of norms and close relationships in the fragility of our communities. Seth makes the point that fragility is about relationships, whether those are found at the local community level, between communities, or at level of national institutions – and the nature of those relationships or their absence is what makes fragility emerge.

We also talk about why we have fragile neighborhoods and what policies and factors have contributed the most to this problem. Our conversation touches upon the role of public service and on the “poverty-industrial-complex” & institutional obstacles to addressing fragility in neighborhoods. Seth also makes the case for the value of prevention in terms of saving social, human, and economic capital and highlights marriage as one of the institutions that can help prevent social decay. We wrap up our conversation by discussing the need for reviving the American Dream and bringing back into our neighborhoods the robust institutions and instincts for civil society that Alexis de Tocqueville observed two centuries ago.  

Listen to the episode and read Seth’s book for so many more ideas on how we can help neighborhoods exit fragility!

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Dr. Seth D. Kaplan

Website: https://sethkaplan.org

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethkaplan28

Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University: https://sais.jhu.edu/users/skapla13

Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/seth-d-kaplan

Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/seth-d-kaplan/

Seth D. Kaplan. 2023. Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time. https://amzn.to/3la0FSG

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Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:32 Seth’s experience

00:04:00 What fragile neighborhoods look like?

00:10:21 Why Seth wrote this book?

00:16:48 The role of norms & closeness in relationships

00:24:30 Migration & social cohesion in neighborhoods

00:30:19 What's not working?

00:37:25 Problems in fragile neighborhoods

00:41:50 Homelessness

00:48:54 Why we have fragile neighborhoods?

00:57:34 The hero’s journey: rethinking meritocracy

01:06:07 Placemaking & the role of jobs

01:12:44 The role of public service & elected politicians

01:17:38 The poverty industrial complex: obstacles to well being

01:26:50 Fragility prevention in neighborhoods

01:34:13 Lessons for international development

01

Laura Frigenti is the Chief Executive Officer of the Global Partnership for Education (GPE). She has had an amazing career in international development working across Latin America, Africa, and Europe over almost four decades. Laura has held leadership positions in national government agencies, the World Bank,
NGOs, and the private sector. Throughout her career, she focused on a range of issues, from trade and private sector development, to infrastructure, financial sector reform, and education. Laura was appointed Director General of the Italian Overseas Development Agency, with the responsibility of setting up the newly created agency. Laura also served as chief of staff to the President of
the World Bank.

We start by talking about Laura’s journey, from growing up in Italy to how studying abroad sparked her interest in development. We move on to Laura’s views on development, the main obstacles that stand in the way of achieving development (political will, resources, and human capital), and how we can foster the political will necessary for development to take place. Laura then also shares with us her perspective on the evolution of thinking around fragility and how, over the last 20 years, it has become clear that fragility is a global problem. She highlights two main dimensions of fragility - individual and institutional - and how widespread institutional fragility acts as an obstacle to overcoming individual fragility.

Our conversation then focuses on education. We discuss the relationship between education and fragility, the key challenges facing the education sector today, and the need for education to create skills that are needed by the private sector. Laura sees education as foundational and going beyond individual learning - it is the cornerstone to creating a strong state, economic growth, political stability, as well as a stronger and more stable society. We also talk about the role of technology in closing existing educational gaps and whether technology can help increase access to education for girls in places like Afghanistan. Laura then explains the need for a new narrative for education in the midst of competing global crises and helps us understand the Global Partnership for Education’s unique approach.

Listen to the episode for so many more insights on development and education from Laura Frigenti!

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Laura Frigenti

Website: https://www.globalpartnership.org/who-we-are/ceo

Twitter: https://twitter.com/GPECEO

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About the Global Partnership for Education 

GPE is a shared commitment to ending the world’s learning crisis. We mobilize partners and funds to support nearly 90 lower-income countries to transform their education systems so that every girl and boy can get the quality education they need to unlock their full potential and contribute to building a better world.  For more than 20 years, GPE has mobilized partners and funds to get 160 million more girls and boys in school and improve learning in partner countries around the world.  

To learn more: https://www.globalpartnership.org

Twitter: https://twitter.com/gpforeducation

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

01:29 Laura’s background

04:11 What is development?

06:37 Top three obstacles in the way of development

08:37 Options to foster political will

13:17 A perspective on fragility today

16:46 The relationship between education & fragility

23:53 The key challenges facing the education sector today

30:15 Is there a smell test for new ideas, new plans, grand strategies to change?

36:15 Education that responds to private sector needs

39:36 The role of technology in closing existing educational gaps

44:59 Can technology help increase access to learning for girls?

48:13 The need for a new narrative for education

52:33 The Global Partnership for Education’s approach

56:37 When will our planet be fully literate and numerate?

58:50 Wrap-up

Dan Runde is Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where he directs the Project on Prosperity and Development. He previously worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development (or USAID), the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, and in investment banking with experience in Latin America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Dan recently wrote a new book called "The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power." This is the first book in decades to look at U.S. non-military power through the lens of great power competition. He is also the host of "Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy," a podcast series focused on updating the United States’ soft power playbook to meet the hopes and aspirations of developing countries.

This was an incredibly fun conversation and chock-full of insights! We start by talking about Dan’s path, from growing up in a family that taught him the importance of public service, to his experience of working for USAID, the World Bank’s IFC, and currently for CSIS. Dan then talks about his views as a conservative internationalist, and why we need the trade, security, and multilateral system that was designed and built by the US, in partnership with others, after WWII. He goes on to highlight that while the system is necessary, it cannot function in the absence of leadership and asks us to imagine which set of values we would rather have shape the world we live in.

We then shift to how global development is going to be increasingly refracted through the lens of great power competition, where the tools of soft power become even more critical. Dan’s framing of development as applied foreign policy helps make the concept more real and applicable. We also discuss the areas of cooperation between US and Europe, as well as some of the tensions still present between these long-standing partners. Afterwards, we touch upon the thorny topic of mining, minerals, and climate change and the much-needed realization that decarbonization doesn't mean dematerialization. Our conversation then turns to the Global Fragility Act (GFA) and what the US needs to do to succeed in this new initiative. Dan sums up the top priorities for U.S. development efforts over the next five years: help Ukraine, close the digital divide, mining and minerals, nearshoring, and address corruption.  

Listen to the episode and pick up Dan’s book for so many more insights!

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Dan Runde

Website: https://www.csis.org/people/daniel-f-runde

Twitter: https://twitter.com/danrunde

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielfrunde/

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Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)


EPISODE RESOURCES:

Project on US Leadership in Development: https://www.csis.org/programs/project-us-leadership-development

Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy with Dan Runde: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/building-future-freedom-prosperity-and-foreign-policy-dan-runde

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:32 Dan’s background

00:10:11 What is a conservative internationalist?

00:19:37 The world needs leadership not entropy

00:23:11 What is development & the role of political engagement in donor countries

00:33:19 What is fair vs. unfair global power competition?

00:45:15 What is soft power? Development is applied foreign policy

00:52:31 US – Europe cooperation vs competition in development

01:06:24 The Global Fragility Act – how to get it right

01:10:59 Priorities