Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog Martin North
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- Business
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We discuss the latest finance and digital business news, with a distinctively Australian flavour
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Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 - 1. Overview
This is the first in a series of posts which deep dives into our latest survey results, with a focus on financial stress, which is rising further. This episode provides an overview, subsequent episodes will dive into the details of mortgage, rental, investor and financial stress. If you want details of a particular post code, … Continue reading "Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 – 1. Overview"
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Toppy Markets Feeling The Pain As More Data Confuses Again…
This is our weekly market update. In this show we look across the market action, starting in the US, then Europe, Asia and Australia and also touch on commodities and crypto, not least because this helps me get my thoughts in order as to what’s really going on. Top line, this past week’s performance on … Continue reading "Toppy Markets Feeling The Pain As More Data Confuses Again…"
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No Homes For You: The Structural Desolation Of Dwelling Approval Falls!
Yesterday the ABS released the latest data on dwellings approved and they fell 0.3 per cent in April, after a 2.7 per cent rise in March, according to the seasonally adjusted data after just 13,078 new homes were signed off for construction. Looing at the mix, Approvals for private houses fell 1.6 per cent. While … Continue reading "No Homes For You: The Structural Desolation Of Dwelling Approval Falls!"
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Gaslighting By The Gas Producers Exposed As Australians Pay!
Australia is paying way too much for its home-grown gas, as the over-exporting of gas has driven East Coast gas prices 400% higher than historical average prices leading to higher inflation and a stalled energy transition. This is a huge impost on living standards via direct bill shocks and spills over to energy-intensive manufacturing, which … Continue reading "Gaslighting By The Gas Producers Exposed As Australians Pay!"
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Danger! Inflation Traffic Accident Dead Ahead!
The latest monthly data on inflation from the ABS which came out today reported Annual growth in the non-seasonally adjusted monthly CPI lifted from 3.5 per cent last month to 3.6 per cent, above market expectations, while seasonally adjusted CPI is even higher at 3.8 per cent, and annual trimmed mean inflation (which removes food, … Continue reading "Danger! Inflation Traffic Accident Dead Ahead!"
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DFA Live Q&A Replay: Bank Branch Closures After The Senate Report: With Robbie Barwick
This is an edited version of a live discussion, with Robbie Barwick, Research Director from the Australian Citizens Party as we discuss the newly released Senate report on Regional Branch Closures. Following their recommendations for making the provision of banking services and access to cash a fundamental right, and for considering a Public Bank, where … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Bank Branch Closures After The Senate Report: With Robbie Barwick"
Customer Reviews
Great insight
Amazing insight, suggest joining patreon page and contributing to allow these people to keep informing the general public in simple, easy to understand ways. Patreon.com/digitalfinanceanalytics
Very negative
Lots of doom and gloom with the best of intentions.
Curious listener
I started listening to Martin when his data started to get mainstream airtime and his property crash predictions got him even further air time. That was about 5 years ago. Over this time he had made two big predictions of up to 40% price corrections on the back of his data. Both have come to nothing and in fact prices have grown substantially since this time.
For the record there is no problem in making predictions based on mortgage stress, but given it clearly hasn’t resulted in any significant downside risk, as any good analysts should, they need to reassess their data or potentially draw a different conclusion.
You see the risk here is that some people could believe such ‘headline’ grabbing predictions and act accordingly-so anyone who sold on the advice is now significantly worse off by hundreds of thousands of dollars and potentially not able to get back in to the property market, causing even more financial pain. (The ABC has a similar poor track record of claiming pending doom, on the back of such data and reports released by Martin.)
Fast forward to today and the tone remains one of sunk costs bias and guest with a left political agenda or more excuses as to why the predictions weren’t wrong, because they didn’t factor in any alternative variables, such as government support. That should be considered in any market where so much is at stake economically.
I’ll keep checking in on this podcast from time to time, because as an investor one should never get complacent and one should continue to listen to alternative views, but vet such claims against other data both current and historical.