Episode 263 – Elimination or Suppression The Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove

In this episode, we discuss the pros and cons of an elimination strategy for Covid-19 in Australia, the usefulness of masks, the special treatment of Danii Minogue, the cancellation of Martina Navratilova and a protestor in New York who wants to refund the police.

It’s bad, but not so bad

From the Reserve bank

Statement May 2020

The Australian economy is expected to record a contraction in GDP of around 10 per cent over the first half of 2020; total hours worked are expected to decline by around 20 per cent and the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to around 10 per cent in the June quarter. Headline inflation is expected to be negative in the June quarter largely as a result of lower fuel prices and free child care; underlying inflation is expected to decline notably.

Melbourne

Super spreaders

Suppression or Elimination

What should we be aiming for?

I thought elimination of COVID-19 was not possible in Australia – now I’ve changed my mind

From Gregory Dore in the SMH

There are several reasons why an Australian COVID-19 elimination strategy should be considered. First, as outlined, there is empirical data demonstrating feasibility. Second, despite potential for prolonged restrictions in settings with current spread, I believe the community would support an elimination strategy. Such a strategy would require national political consensus, and clear jurisdictional and national-level public health messaging. Crucially, the resurgence in Melbourne and outbreak in Sydney have re-engaged the community, after most members had become complacent.

Third, an elimination strategy would acknowledge complete and maintained elimination may not be achievable, but low-level community transmission would be a welcome second-best outcome. Fourth, in uncertain times efforts towards elimination could provide greater certainty as we await an effective vaccine. Fifth, a requirement for keeping international borders closed under an elimination strategy is no different to the current situation under a suppression strategy.

Finally, the initial national pride in Australia’s response to the epidemic, despite considerable personal and economic constraints, would be greatly enhanced through achieving elimination. If unsuccessful, the majority of the community would not be critical of our political and public health leaders for making a concerted effort towards elimination.

Having watched the COVID-19 elimination bus do its rounds with a few rowdy passengers, I have decided to flag it down and climb aboard.

Professor Gregory Dore is an infectious diseases physician and epidemiologist at the Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney.

 

Masks

Is it OK for Victoria to make them mandatory?

It seems they do their best work indoors to protect family members.

In the UK teenagers are getting alcohol

Cheeky teens are using coronavirus face coverings to dress up as pensioners and buy booze.

Donning the face coverings to hide their youthful looks, they make a few adjustments to their clothing and hair and find themselves walking out of the stores with bags of drink, before posting the results on social media.

The craze is sweeping the video sharing social media app TikTok as the teens exploit the coronavirus crisis to avoid being asked for ID for the alcohol.

Multiple videos show underage drinkers applying white powder to their hair to mimic the greying locks of senior citizens and donning older-style clothes before dropping in on the liquor...