Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.
You can find Mark’s latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com (here).
In this episode, we discuss:
How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone
How to spot future star performers in advance
Unconventional approaches to market correlations
The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients
Why investors tend to copy their peers
Whether fund size matters to capital allocators
How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
04:28 – Macro recap from Niels
06:15 – Weekly review of performance
11:21 – Q1, Q2 and Q3; Brett: Do you group your futures contracts into ‘risk buckets’ (sectors/groups), and give a max exposure to each ‘risk bucket’? Do you apply ‘risk-to-stop’ measures on particular types of asset class or only on the whole portfolio? How do you avoid overweighting your system toward currencies, considering the fact there are so many currency pairs to trade?
27:25 – Discussion on the key drivers for manager selection, inspired by a paper co-authored with Mark, which will be released soon
57:02 – How important consultations are in the capital allocation process
01:26:59 – Benchmark performance update

Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here).
In this episode, we discuss:
The case for longer-term strategies
Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition
How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustness
Why Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the future
How to prevent cyber attacks
Why you can't always rely on past correlations to continue
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:32 - A big thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes
02:26 - Macro recap from Niels
04:43 - Weekly review of returns
15:55 - An insight into Jerry Parker’s approach to backtesting
23:06 - Jerry Parker’s thoughts on the challenges of starting a CTA business today and how to overcome them
32:35 - Thoughts on effective succession planning for CTAs, as well as some thoughts on staying safe from cyber attacks
37:41 - Q1; Sebastien: How do you approach currency hedging?
41:17 - How one simple rule can be more powerful than a group of complex rules
44:48 - How shorter-term systems can be susceptible to noise
47:54 - Why past correlations can’t always be relied upon
49:32 - Discussion on a recent TransTrend article on how to respond to extreme volatility in the markets, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic
56:34 - Jerry’s thoughts on system diversification
01:01:59 - Benchmark performance update

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.
In this episode, we discuss:
Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial
Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable
Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods
Some good measures for monitoring risk
Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing
Suitable backtesting software for retail investors
How to approach negative interest rates with your broker
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Moritz on https://twitter.com/moritzseibert (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes and Apple Podcasts
03:21 - Macro recap from Niels
05:38 - Weekly review of returns
18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests
26:42 - Q1 and Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same?
41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way out of a correction over stocks making new all time highs?
45:16 - Q4; James: Can you recommend a software with backtesting capabilities, suitable for retail investors?
47:10 - Q5; Sebastien: How do you deal with negative interest rates from your broker?
51:14 - Q6; Mikhail: Is it worth varying the lengths of time being backtested rather than just, for example, backtesting data over the last 50 years?
57:39 - Thoughts on Germany’s upcoming election and its possible effects on the markets
01:02:08 - Benchmark performance update

This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest.
In this episode, we discuss:
Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following
Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live
The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers
Leverage, margin, and total portfolio risk-to-stop
What information to look for in a backtest
How to avoid 'curve-fitting' (and could some curve-fitting be beneficial?)
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Rich on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:25 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
03:47 – Macro recap from Niels
05:57 – Weekly review of performance
10:59 – Trend Followers as hunters of outliers
13:34 – Q1; Louis: Do you recommend starting a new model with lower leverage, so that it has time to adjust to the markets?
20:02 – Q2; Aaron: If you had to choose a different strategy to complement your main Trend Following strategy, which one would you choose, and why?
25:03 – Q3; Graham: How much margin do you use on different instruments? What total portfolio risk-to-stop do you recommend?
35:23 – ‘The good, the bad, and the ugly’ of backtesting
52:50 – How to make a backtest as objective and robust as possible
01:25:49 – Benchmark performance update

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models.
In this episode, we discuss:
The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs
How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers'
The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system
Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification'
Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes
Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions
Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared'
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:31 – Macro recap from Niels
11:17 – Weekly review of performance
17:10 – Q1; Adam: At what point does diversification become dilution?
22:32 – Q2; Mathew: Have there ever been any years where currencies were your top performers?
32:09 – What the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s point of view, as well as some thoughts on the terms ’non-linearity squared' and ‘pyramiding’
01:02:36 – Benchmark performance update

Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following.
In this episode, we discuss:
Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of
How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system
The true definitions of liquidity
Futures markets as the most liquid in the world
Why a rules-based approach to the markets is so important
The 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement
Trend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:24 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:57 – Macro recap from Niels
04:37 – Weekly review of performance
09:16 – 'The black hole of Jackson Hole' and the 50th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement
18:11 – The different types of liquidity
29:50 – How to measure a market’s true liquidity
01:01:37 – Integrating ESG into Trend Following
01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update