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📈Canadian 2024 Budget Highlights with Mel Caouette📉
Welcome back.
We apologize for the inconsistent email and podcast schedule over the last few months. We will be back this summer in full force!
This week’s podcast brings back our most popular guest - Melissa Caouette. We talk about the Canadian Federal Budget and its impact on Canadian entrepreneurs, home owners new and old, and those looking to plan their financial lives.
Twitter links to reference for the pod:
* Professional Canadians impacted by the Capital Gains Inclusion policy.
* Incorporated people deciding on how to pay themselves post-budget policy changes.
* What the new budget means for Canadian Farmers.
* Budget Link that covers the housing portion of the policy.
Quick Market Update:
By now it should be clear to everyone that the Fed doesn’t have a specific plan for when they will cut rates this year. Powell keeps saying they are taking the data one month at a time and adjusting their view. This is why stocks rallied when the jobs number on Friday came well below estimates. A weakening jobs market improves the prospects for an earlier rate cut.
We are already starting to see some easing.
The pace of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction is slowing down.
The Treasury plans to start buying $2Bn worth of Treasuries weekly.
This is why the dips in the stock market continue to be bought.
Earnings season:
Two trends stood out so far – upside gaps often faded while downside gaps followed through. These are both bearish reactions. And yet, the indexes are holding relatively well.
SPY, QQQ, and IWM have made a couple of higher lows and higher highs in the past two weeks. Small caps are firmly back above their YTD VWAP.
SPY and QQQ rallied to their 50-day moving average.
Going above their Friday highs will likely lead to FOMO chasing as many market participants are underinvested. Losing Friday’s low will likely lead to a quick gap close. 
In the meantime, Chinese stocks had a second strong week in a row. Sentiment towards Chinese names has been extremely bearish for a long time. F
We are in a market of stocks environment. The popular, well-known stocks have had some troubles this earnings season. They either gap up and then quickly close their gaps or gap down.
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Great recap of the most recent Apple Event and Quarter:
* Justin Lin interviewed by YAV podcast:
* Market update from the guys at RenMac:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* “Trung offers up many examples of how the best athletes in the world across almost every sport are both learning and educating on YouTube. I have seen it in golf and I know if I had the time or inclination I could rapidly improve my game.” Youtube - The learning machine - Source: Trung Phan
* “Over the last thirty-plus years, each major technology wave, like the PC and then the Internet, evolved as a series of technologies in a tech value stack that came to define the full ecosystem with huge collective value over time.” Source: AI - Building Value Over Time
* Disney shares tumbled 9.5 percent on Tuesday even as it reported the first profit in its core streaming business since it leapt into a battle with [NFLX] five years ago. The Disney+ and Hulu streaming unit earned an operating profit of $47mn in the quarter to the end of March, compared with a $587mn loss a year earlier. Disney achieved the milestone months earlier than expected thanks to cost-cutting and the popularity of Hulu programs including Shogun and The Bear. But investors appeared to be more focused on a potential slowdown in the company’s theme parks." Source: FT
"Apple announced new versions of its iPad Air and iPad Pro tablet computers on Tuesday. They’re the first new iPad models Apple has released since October 2022. “This is the biggest day for iPad since its introduction,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a video posted on the company’s website." Source: CNBC
"The Biden administration has revoked exp

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Joel’s unconventional career path
* How to start a business in your early years
* How to approach the ever changing technology market
* How to think about buying your first house
* Tips and tricks to networking
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Happy Easter weekend, everyone.
This weeks episode is a little bit different than our typical show. Part 1 of 2.
Joel is interviewed by Omid from the Second Floor Podcast.
It’s a wide ranging conversation about networking, investing, mentorship, leverage and the Canadian Economy.
If you care to hear Joel’s thoughts on the above subjects, we thinks it well worth your time to listen and subscribe to The Second Floor Podcast.
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* “Truly showing belief in others will buy them a ticket to someplace they never knew.” “Create a brand that people chase, don’t chase people with your brand.” Another gem of an episode on @patrick_oshag pod:
* A great podcast covering the new paradigm shift amongst big tech from Ben Thompson and Stratechery.
* The New Face of Military Technology with Peter Zeihan:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Nvidia’s ACCELERATING AI Strategy. And a Podcast to go with it - Source: the 30 year overnight success story interview with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
* The Concorde Jet vs. Boeing 747 - Source: Trung Phan
* "Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said the standard version of the SU7 will sell for 215,900 yuan ($30,408) in the country — a price he acknowledged would mean the company was selling each car at a loss. Tesla’s Model 3 starts at 245,900 yuan in China. Lei claimed the standard version of the SU7 beat the Model 3 on more than 90% of its specifications, except on two aspects that he said it might take Xiaomi at least three to five years to catch up with Tesla on." Source: CNBC
* "Reddit shares are plummeting after experiencing a rally stemming from the social media company’s IPO last week. Shares closed Thursday at $49.30, falling below their closing price on Reddit’s first day of trading last week on the New York Stock Exchange. Earlier this week, Reddit disclosed in a corporate filing that CEO Steve Hoffman sold 500,000 shares, and Reddit COO Jennifer Wong also disclosed that she sold 514,000 shares." Source: CNBC
"Home Depot is placing an $18 billion bet that will take the retailer beyond its big orange stores. The home-improvement retailer said Thursday it would buy a company that sells goods for professional roofing and other building projects, branching out to grab more spending by big contractors and construction firms." Source: WSJ
Important Charts From the Last Week:
Crypto, commodities and bond charts courtesy of All Star Charts.
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances

📈Alberta Budget Highlights📉
Welcome back.
This weeks podcast has a special guest: Melissa Caouette founder of Pocket Lobbyist and MC Consulting.
from her political newsletter:
On Thursday, February 29, 2024, Alberta’s Minister of Finance and President of the Treasury Board, Hon. Nate Horner, tabled the Government of Alberta 2024-27 Fiscal Plan: A Responsible Plan for a Growing Province.
TL;DR: Budget 2024 includes a modest $367 million surplus with revenues projected to be $73.5 billion. A relatively positive economic position when considered in the context of global uncertainty with 2.9 per cent projected real GDP growth. Population growth was significant this year but will lower slightly to 3.7 per cent in 2024-25.
Tax updates include a new electric vehicle tax and a new Land Ttitles Registration Levy. The government will increase cigarette and smokeless tobacco taxes and adopt the federal-provincial vaping tax framework. A campaign commitment to introduce the Alberta is Calling Attraction Bonus is also included. Education Property Taxes remain the same.
Here are the links to all the important budget documents for anyone interested in reviewing all the details:
* Minister Horner's Budget Address
* Fiscal Plan
* Capital Plan and Details By Ministry
*  Business Plans
About Pocket Lobbyist
Pocket Lobbyist is an innovative, first-of-its-kind platform for government relations and public policy materials in Canada.
We offer innovative products that support organizations in anticipating, interpreting, and mitigating political risk, including a membership portal and cohort-based professional development opportunities.
After launching in 2022, Pocket Lobbyist is a trusted resource for some of Canada’s largest municipalities, economic development associations, non-profits, associations, lobbying firms, and private sector companies. 
Twitter links to reference for the pod:
* Trevor Tombe on the 250B-400B Herritage fund
* Canada no longer one of the richest nations on earth
* Land transfer tax gets a huge tax overhaul
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Richard Lewis was a legend and he passed this week. He will be missed,. This best of Richard Lewis on Letterman is fantastic:
* G2 Podcast:
* New Founders Pod:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* PRIME TIME: WHY NIGHT GOLF COULD EXPLODE IN POPULARITY: “There are about 16,000 golf courses in the United States, but less than one percent of them have lights. That could change in the coming years as many in the golf industry feel we are at the beginning of a night golf trend. “Source: here
* Nvidia CEO Jensen highlights Inference over Training AI:  With the markets increasingly tuned to the potentially higher upcoming competition from other chip vendors for Nvidia in AI inference vs training, it’s notable that CEO Jensen Huang is making this a priority. Especially in terms of providing the street Nvidia metrics on this front. Source and detailed take: here.
* "Over and over again, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook has been asked the same question: What is Apple doing about generative artificial intelligence? His answer: Stay tuned. Investors are getting impatient... That sentiment is why Apple’s decision to shift some employees into AI and cancel its electric-car project—one of the most widely anticipated potential tech products in a decade—was greeted with almost universal investor enthusiasm Tuesday." Source: WSJ
* "The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in nearly a year, helping explain policymakers’ patient approach to start cutting interest rates. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.4% from December, data out Thursday showed. From a year ago, it advanced 2.8%. Economists consider this to be a better gauge of underlying inflation than the overall index." Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer:

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Super Bowl Economics
* Market update
* Underneath all time highs
* Rates aren’t coming down… now what?
* The power of AI and inference
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
The Good
The most bullish thing I see out there for the stock market is the lack of new lows… Most stocks are holding and staying above their 52 week lows…
It's mathematically impossible for the stock market to get worse, go into a correction, or even think about the possibility of a bear market, without seeing an expansion in new lows first.
And we're just not seeing it.
The NYSE Composite went out last week at a new all-time high. And even the most short-term of new lows lists have yet to see any expansion.
The Bad
However, the bad thing is that there have been a number of bearish divergences adding up.
The stock market just entered what is historically one of the worst times to own stocks of the entire year, the new 52-week highs list has already dried up.
We are in nomansland.
The all time highs list peaked 2 months ago, and has been deteriorating with every new high you see in the S&P500 and Nasdaq (neither one closed at a new high last week).
US Treasury Bonds are falling off a cliff. When a $130 Trillion asset class is crashing, is your bet that it won't impact the stock market?
You're seeing Consumer Staples outpacing Consumer Discretionary stocks, which is what you normally see in the market right before a good rug pull.
And worst of all, the US Dollar is ripping higher. Over the past several years, when the Dollar is strong, stock are not…
The US Dollar is the only safe haven in this market. And Dollar Index Futures are up every week this year - 7 weeks in a row. All of these, in my opinion, are definitely bad for stocks.
The UGLY
This market is losing its leaders.
Adobe, arguably the most important software stock, is getting crushed.
The iShares Software Index Fund just got back to its former bull market highs from late 2021.
The most important stocks within the index are already rolling over.
If Software is falling, Apple and Microsoft are rolling over, and momentum is diverging everywhere, do you think the Tech Sector Index itself won't follow?
Remember, Technology represents 30% of the S&P500 and over 50% of the Nasdaq100 $QQQ.
Now, this is all to say that we cant possibly see the future and all these bearish signals could change in an instant.
We as investors and market participants must stay nimble.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Capital One buying Discover
* Lifestyle influencers are transitioning out of the business
* EV Leases are plummeting in price
* Raising Canes origin story
* Trevor Tombe talks about the Alberta herritage fund
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* The Legend Behind the Legend: This awesome interview was served up of Steve Williams who was Tiger Woods caddy for 13 years. Steve had the best seat in golf for 13 years. There are so many great stories on Tiger Woods’ crazy life, the one on how he got fired and on the legacy of Tiger Woods.
* The Compound brings back my favorite guest:
* B2 is the best new podcast in tech and investing. This episode was a phenomenal cruise around tech markets.
Best Links of The Week🔮
* "Nvidia’s surge to an all-time high is the biggest single-session increase in market value in history, besting Meta’s historic gain just three weeks ago. Shares of the chipmaker jumped 16% Thursday, adding about $277 billion in market capitalization and bringing its total market value near $2 trillion. The addition eclipsed the $197 billion gain made by Facebook-parent Meta at the start of the month." Source: Bloomberg
* "Japan’s benchmark stock average hit a record high Thursday after 34 years of waiting, and the reason mostly boils down to one word: profits. Japanese companies are making a lot of money, and they are handing out a

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Good Good tournament with Grass Clippings
* Market update
* Canada betting too much on USA trade
* American exports
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
Last Wednesday the Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq100 all closed at new all-time highs.
But the number of stocks on the NYSE that actually made new highs was a fraction of what it was last week…
Breadth is weak.
The indexes make new highs. The headlines focus only on that.
But then the actual new highs list is non-existent.
A sell off is beginning, we’re just not seeing it at the index level yet.
But, things can change at the drop of a hat.
The number of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 and 50dma is decreasing while the index is making new highs. This is how indexes topped in the past. The trouble is that timing a top is a lot tougher than capturing a bottom.
A bearish divergence can continue a lot longer than most expect and can resolve in two ways:
* We can see an expansion of the rally as more stocks participate. This happened last year in May and June.
* Or we can see a correction and most stocks pull back.
From where we stand, both scenarios are equally plausible right now.
More stocks joining the rally mean more and better opportunities in faster-moving stocks. A correction means lower prices in the strongest companies – so many investors are dreaming about buying pullbacks in the strongest semiconductor and software stocks. Any dips will offer better risk-to-reward opportunities. 
As legendary investor, Peter Lynch said: “Far more money has been lost while preparing for a correction than during the corrections themselves”.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Trevor Tombe on Canadian resource investment
* Trevor Tombe on Canada betting too much on USA trade
* Chris Arnade talks about American exports
* Adam Sandler and Brad Pitt
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* BG2 podcast with Aaron Levie:
* Using the Apple Vision Pro:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Todays luxuries are tomorrows commodities - “We're entering a world in which consumers will experience abundance in creativity and productivity, in their relationships and social experiences, and in personal growth across dimensions like education, wellness, and financial health. This will manifest in a new generation of AI-native consumer products and companies that grow faster and engage users more deeply than ever before”. Source: Gamma
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has shifted its focus toward deciding when to begin cutting interest rates, but that solid economic growth means officials didn’t have to rush that decision. Given recent economic strength, “we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully,” Powell said during a rare television interview to be broadcast on CBS on Sunday night. Powell, speaking on “60 Minutes,” said officials were trying to balance the risks of leaving rates too high for too long, which could cause an economic slowdown, and of cutting rates too soon and allowing inflation to settle above the Fed’s 2% goal." Source: WSJ
* "Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk has been “surprised” by the readiness of European consumers to pay for weight-loss drugs from their own pockets, as the region’s largest company invests in new supply to meet runaway demand. The company’s weight-loss drug Wegovy and diabetes treatment Ozempic powered it to record sales in 2023 and a current market capitalisation of $508bn." Source: FT
* "Hawaiian Airlines is rolling out complimentary Wi-Fi via SpaceX’s Starlink on board commercial flights this week... the first major U.S. airline to offer the satellite-based service. “SpaceX has really cracked the code – literally, in terms of the technology – to be able to deliver a wide bandwidth of very high quality connectivity t

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Sports business update (Netflix $5B Deal with WWE)
* Inflation news and jobs data
* Market update
* META earnings
* AMZN earnings
* Vision Pro impacting culture
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
We had a very exciting week in markets. There was some important US data that was released. QRA & RRP, FOMC and Big Tech earnings.
QRA - There was a net funding for US treasury and bills, which was a surprise and would be considered a headwind for equities.
FOMC - Many forecasters assumed that Quantitative Tightening (QT) would end in June, however, after this months meeting it’s quite clear that QT ending is no longer a certainty. There will be no rate cut in march.
In order to see a cut, Jerome Powell will need to see a few CPI prints that negate the benign inflation that we have seen over the last few quarters.
This is all to say, that its clear we are in a fairly precarious place with regards to equity pricing. We are priced for a perfect “no landing'“ situation.
AI and Big Tech:
Big Tech AI driven Earnings Season Momentum continues: Meta took the investor crown with its quarterly results, with the stock up almost 20%, with Amazon also seeing a double digit positive reaction. Microsoft, logged some gains initially post announcement gains, but gave them up later in the week. Apple and Google had modestly muted reactions, Apple for weakness in China, and Google for continued concerns on AI impact on its Search business. Lots in the weeds to parse for each of the ‘Magnificent 7’, but overall, the AI sentiment tailwinds continue.
How to think about the evolution of culturally important technology: Vision Pro
If one looks back at Apple’s ‘platform’ record over the decades, the company is generally never the first in a hot new tech area. But when it does make its move, it’s typically a committed, focused, and multi-year bet on making it a vertically integrated ‘Best’. With an almost religious ‘attention to detail’, fusing both the hardware and software elements. With the North Star of the eventual user experience.
Let’s look at the broad strokes through tech history. Apple typically relabels the tech to whatever it wants. (This time it’s ‘Spatial Computing’ instead of ‘VR, AR or MR’).
Let’s look at this ‘late’ but eventually ‘best’ trend through Apple’s history:
* GUI (Graphical User Interface) pioneering Macs in the 1980s, bringing the world from the ‘Command Line’ of Microsoft’s MS-DOS to their eventual success with Windows 95 and beyond,
* to its Internet ‘built-in’ iMacs in 1997 when Steve Jobs ‘came back’ to Apple,
* to the iPod that revamped the Music industry from albums to buying music tracks individually, changing the habits of billions in how they consumed music,
* to of course the mobile phone with the iPhone in 2007 after Blackberry and many others had already ‘taken the lead’, redefining the ‘Smart Phone’, and establishing the ‘App Store’ and App Economy that now sees over a trillion in business activity per year,
* to the Airpods in the ‘Wearables’ space, overtaking prior wired and wireless efforts,
* to the Apple Watch, which continued the ‘Wearables’ progression from others, painstakingly iterating over many years,
* to now the Vision Pro in headsets that have seen billions in expenditures by everyone from Meta/Facebook with Oculus/Quest headsets to Microsoft, Sony, and so many others.
Twitter links from the pod:
* AMZN earnings recap
* META earnings recap
* Oil stocks to own forever
* Real estate development story that will blow your mind
* Bill Gross talks about QT and QE
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* How to think about New All Time HIGHS - from the Compound
* How to think about product pricing - Invest Like The Best
Best Links of The Week🔮
* "After decades in the s