Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.
Conor Maguire's "Deep Breath, Deep Value" thesis on SOL Group
Conor Maguire, founder of valuesits, discusses why he thinks SOL Group is a Buffett-like stock trading at an attractive multiple with the possibility of a private equity takeout over the next five years.
Conor's SOL write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/deep-breath-deep-value
2:50 SOL overview
4:50 What is the market missing with SOL?
9:00 Why a private equity firm would like SOL
14:55 Would regulators be ok with a private equity deal for SOL?
18:10 Why would the family want to sell SOL?
23:10 Diving into the technical gas business
25:20 How does Europe's nat gas crisis impact SOL?
29:20 What's the long term obsolesce risk for SOL?
33:20 SOL's carbon capture call option
38:15 SOL's home care business
43:20 SOL's emerging businesses
49:30 What else is Conor seeing in the market?
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets June 2022 (podcast #114)
Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in June 2022.
Chris's May 2022 state of the markets episode: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chris's golden age of arb posts: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519...
1:50 What's on Chris's mind
3:35 Wide spreads and CTXS
8:15 PLAN's recut
16:15 Do investors over or underestimate how much PE firms care about their reputation?
22:45 How strong are bank financing agreements in rocky markets?
26:40 Other golden age of arb candidates
29:15 State of the energy market
32:00 CLR's take private bid
39:05 Updated TWTR thoughts
50:40 Closing thoughts and crypto markets
Brian Laks from Old West on Tin's Alpha Potential
Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for Tin and why he thinks the world's largest tin miner, Alphamin, could present an alpha opportunityi.
Brian's first appearance on Uranium and NXE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1434879061961019396?s=20
Tin market bull case video mentioned: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ro8uCD10-w
2:20 Tin market overview
4:00 What drives the structural increase in tin prices?
7:25 Is there an alternative for tin?
13:25 Tin supply dynamics
20:20 What would it take to bring new tin mines on?
24:40 Marginal cost of tin supply
30:30 Why is today's tin price right versus 2019's?
35:15 Alphamin overview
41:10 Alphamin's expansion project
44:50 The strategic review process
52:00 Capital allocation and Alphamin's dividend
58:45 Tin's terminal value versus coal
1:01:30 Could China buy Alphamin?
1:07:00 What happens if Alphamin doesn't sell?
1:12:40 Why is the strategic review taking so long?
1:16:15 Closing thoughts
Doug from Fabricated Knowledge on the Semis industry and his RMBS thesis
Doug Olaughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, comes on the podcast to talk about the semiconductor space in general and then dive into his thesis on Rambus (RMBS) and why the market might be missing their big growth call option.
Fabricated knowledge website: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com
Doug's RMBS thesis: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/a-pure-play-on-datacenter-memory?s=w
3:00 Why semis are so compelling
4:10 What's driving the auto / semi shortage
6:55 What Doug's seeing in the semi world
11:30 Why generalists struggle with semis
15:15 Where are we in the semi-cycle right now?
21:30 Separating semi inventory issues from long term supply coming on
31:45 How fragile is the semi supply chain
39:40 Does a crypto winter impact semis?
44:40 Diving into RMBS
56:00 What Doug is seeing the market is missing
58:30 How sustainable is RMBS's FCF?
1:02:30 Why is insider ownership so awful here?
1:06:30 RMBS's acquisition program
1:08:05 Will RMBS really own CXL?
1:14:30 closing thoughts
PJ Kurzweil sees smooth sailing ahead for BC
PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Brunswick (BC). BC is a boat manufacturer, and PJ thinks they are too cheap and the market is missing how much more economically resilient the business is today than it was ~10 years ago.
My BC notes: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1529822951016497153?s=20&t=lAssCowdwRLleeF1c1ZVEw
PJ's BC write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/brunswick-corporation-1-pager-summary?r=1g9l5j&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
3:25 BC overview
5:15 What is PJ seeing in BC that the market's missing?
8:50 Is BC about to run into COVID pull forward headwinds?
13:25 Sizing the boat market
16:20 BC's recession risk
20:10 BC's P&A business and recurring revenue
26:00 Capital allocation and M&A multiples
30:20 BC's vertically integrated model: advantage or overblown?
33:50 BC's Freedom Boat Club optionality
38:45 Share buybacks and insider ownership
42:30 BC's improving free cash flow
45:15 Is BC bringing capacity on right as demand falls off?
47:30 Interest rate, inflation, and financing risks
51:15 Rising gas prices effect on boat demand
54:20 Vontier (VNT) and closing thoughts
Michael Fritzell from Asian Century Stocks on T. Hasegawa
Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on T. Hasegawa. T. Hasegawa trades at a huge discount to its domestic peers like IFF despite similar or better growth and margins, and Michael thinks some recent changes and shareholder pressure could set the company up to rerate.
Michael's T. Hasegawa write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/deep-dive-2022-8-t-hasegawa?s=w
2:25 T. Hasegawa overview
6:45 Why fragrance and flavors are so sticky
9:35 T. Hasegawa's small cost to large value
15:25 What is Michael seeing that the market is missing in T. Hasegawa
17:30 Are continued lockdowns a risk to the business?
19:00 What do you need to believe for T. Hasegawa to continue to grow?
20:55 Why will T. Hasegawa realize value from their Chinese investments?
22:40 Is T. Hasegawa the classic Japanese value trap?
26:45 Are acquisitions a good capital allocation decision here?
32:50 T. Hasegawa closing thoughts
34:30 What countries does Michael think are most attractive currently?
Andrew has nailed the format
Most investment podcasts are 70% filler to me. Preambles, guest career histories up to the present, hand-wavey style talk, moralizing on current events, or worst of all, “life and investing”: skip, scrub, skip, scrub, skip. With YAVP I never skip a second. That’s because it gets straight into what we’re all here for: someone smart with knowledge to share about a specific industry or company, usually in the form of a pitch. Andrew is a good sparring partner who helps each guest get their idea really sharp. It’s perfect.