Stay ahead of the markets with Swissquote Ipek Ozkardeskaya and Feyyaz Alingan bring you an overview of all asset classes

Facebook’s Meta went on a 10% freefall yesterday, even after the company announced better-than-expected earnings, but didn’t pull the rest of the tech stocks down with it yesterday. Nvidia gained more than 3% while Tesla jumped another 5% - don’t ask me why.
On the macroeconomic stage, the news were not bright. The first estimate for the US Q1 growth showed that the US economy slowed way more than expected in Q1 and threw a wrench into the soft-landing dream and sparked fears of stagflation, where the economy slows down while inflation persists – which would force the Fed to keep its policy tight. Stocks fell.
But happily, AI may save the day. Microsoft and Google’s Alphabet both jumped in the afterhours trading after announcing sufficiently strong results that met and surpassed expectations.
Exxon and Chevron are expected to announce their Q1 results today.
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Meta fell 15% in the afterhours trading despite earnings beat as investors didn’t like the weaker-than-expected revenue forecast for the current quarter and even less the news that the company will be spending more money to improve its AI capabilities. Tesla jumped 12% regardless of revenue miss. Google, Microsoft and Intel are due to report today.
So far, we observe that the high expectations have played tricks on stock valuations and the first set of earnings reactions warn that even strong results from Big Tech may not suffice to send their stock prices higher – if we start seeing growth expectations level out. (I am looking at you Microsoft and Nvidia.)
Zooming out, the stumbling giant Meta is weighing on the mood this morning. US futures are down and the technology-heavy Nasdaq is leading losses with more than 1% fall at the time of writing.
The macroeconomic landscape is complex, with investors balancing between robust GDP growth and high earnings expectations for the Big Tech companies, all while considering the fading expectations for a Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut. All eyes on US Q1 GDP today.
In the FX, the USDJPY continues its advance above 155 defying expectation of a direct FX intervention in the next few hours.
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Tesla jumped despite missing earnings and revenue expectations, Apple eked out gains despite news of a 19% drop in Chinese iPhone sales. Texas Instruments rose on a bullish revenue forecast for the current quarter hinting at a slower decline in chip demand from industrials and car industry. Spotify rallied 11% after its CFO said that ‘historical price increases have had minimal impacts on growth’ Meta, Ford and IBM will report today.
The S&P500 rebounded on Tuesday thanks to a decline in US yields following a set of lower than expected PMI figures from the S&P Global and a strong sale of 2-year treasury notes. The EURUSD jumped above 1.07 on the back of stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMIs and softer-than-expected US PMIs. The yen couldn’t maintain gains amid talk of direct intervention, the AUDUSD extended rally on stronger-than-expected inflation data.
Elsewhere, the FTSE 100 rose to a record high, while the Stoxx 600 gained ahead of European bank earnings.
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The bitcoin halving is now through, but will the fees remain high? Will we still see volatility in the markets?

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The week started on a hopeful note after the de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. Gold and oil retreated, equities gained. Bitcoin was better bid following halving while cocoa futures continued to fluctuate near record highs.
On the economic calendar, a series of PMI data are expected to confirm a slight improvement in global activity levels and a further divergence in US rebound. On the corporate calendar, tens of S&P500 companies are preparing to report their Q1 earnings.
Among them, Tesla is due to reveal its Q1 results after the bell and the expectations are weak. The selloff could continue if the company fails to convince investors on three major points. 1. Are sales continuing to fall after the sharp Q1 decline? 2. Is it a good idea to continue cutting the price of EVs provided that the latest cuts didn’t necessarily help boost sales? 3. Are robotaxis and self-driving cars realistic in terms of profit and growth?
Elsewhere, optimism regarding the S&P500 earnings reigns - which to me is an alarming sign. Remember, too much optimism kills optimism.
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The week starts with a relief rally in equities following a calm weekend on the geopolitical scene. The US 2-year yield pushes above 5% ahead of US GDP and PCE updates. Four of Magnificent 7 are due to report earnings this week.
US crude kicks off the week under selling pressure, near the $81.50pb level. The US 2-year yield has been testing the 5% level since 10th of April and looks ready to go above this week.
The S&P500 had their worst week in over a year after less-than-ideal ASML and TSM results hammered appetite in chip stocks last week.
This week, 4 of the Magnificent 7 companies will be revealing their Q1 results: Microsoft, Google, Meta and Tesla..
And if the tech stocks can’t boost appetite, the rest of the S&P500 will hard it hard to do so. The S&P500 index is expected to print a 4% earnings decline in Q1 – a decent contrast with the +38% expected for the Magnificent 7. And among the Magnificent 7, Tesla and Apple don’t look promising. So all hopes rely on 5 stocks. 5 stocks will determine where the S&P500 should be headed next.
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