UBS On-Air: Market Moves Client Strategy Office

In the wake of Mexico’s election outcome earlier this week, Gaby outlines the results, weighs in on the market response, and shares the investment implications to be mindful of. Featured is Gaby Soni, Head of Investment Strategy Mexico, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a strong consensus about today’s ECB policy rate decision. A total of 53 out of 55 surveyed economists expect a 0.25% rate cut, and ECB Chief Economist Lane has practically promised an easing (chief economists are, of course, never wrong). The idea this year has been that most major central banks would follow inflation lower. Eurozone inflation is lower. Rate cuts are not stimulatory, but stabilizing (keeping the real interest rate steady).

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains the underestimated importance of the upcoming European elections, football championships, and the Olympics, along with what investors can learn from professional athletes, coaches, and teams.

Japan published some labor market data, with April cash earnings. On a like-for-like comparison, these were somewhat weaker than expected (and they remain negative in real terms). There are two points worth bearing in mind. An increasing share of Japanese consumers do not depend on earnings to finance consumption, because of population aging. And more of the Japanese economy has been supported by foreign consumers as tourists.

Paula joins Jason in-studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Paula Campbell Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist for Global Wealth, KKR, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US provides the main data releases. JOLTS data on job vacancies is expected to continue to decline. The initial surge in vacancies in 2021 was strongly influenced by labor market churn. As that subsided, vacancy rates fell. Nominal wage growth continues to slow, which argues against a tight labor market.