Moody’s Talks – Behind the Bonds Moody's Investors Service

The commodities sector isn’t looking rosy and that is largely due to the outsize influence of China, which is currently in the grip of an economic slowdown. These pressures come on top of geopolitical damage to trade and supply chains, and the energy transition which is increasing global appetite for some commodities and eroding it for others. Our analysts look in particular at the fortunes of steel and commodity chemicals – both of which are seeing plunging demand from China.
Later in the episode (at 12.49 mins) we also look more closely at gold. Investors are riding record highs for this very particular commodity, a traditional investment ‘safe haven’ whose idiosyncratic behaviour sometimes ignores the normal rules.

The outlook for the global real estate market remains negative with the bumpy economy, tight financing conditions and the surge in remote work. In the US, we expect rental income growth for offices to remain poor overall and apartment income growth to moderate this year with supply up, mostly in parts of the Sunbelt. Globally, Japan is a bright spot with supply-demand dynamics in the commercial market relatively stable. In Europe, the commercial market remains at risk of further deterioration, but the UK is likely to recover quicker as asset prices have fallen at a faster pace.

In our opening segment, we discuss the slight slowdown in global market share growth for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as some incentives to buy have ended, yet prices remain high. A scarcity of charging stations in Europe and the US also remains a deterrent for consumers. Our second segment, which starts at 9:40, focuses on the charging shortage and who will pay for expansion.

Artificial Intelligence or AI is predicted to have a profound impact on many areas of business. In this episode of Behind the Bonds we assess where AI innovation is already showing significant potential. Which industries can expect to see improved productivity and what are the potential timelines for any positive impact on credit quality? We also discuss the disruptive potential of these new technologies and the risks to jobs.

Later in the episode our colleagues look in more depth at the media, where AI’s potential is presenting opportunities and generating both opposition and collaboration from content creators.

In 2024 we see an uneven picture for companies across the globe. For those in North America and Asia-Pacific, excluding China, the credit outlook is stable. But in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America the outlook is negative. Driving this testing global environment are higher for longer interest rates which are raising the cost of borrowing and re-financing. This is a particular challenge for speculative-grade companies. Higher rates are also weighing on consumer demand in some sectors, particularly real estate.

Later in the episode at 11.30mins, our colleagues in Hong Kong take a closer look at prospects for companies in China, in recent decades the driver of the global economy, but facing a negative credit outlook for 2024.

This year has been a very weak one for leveraged finance deals as aggressive global monetary tightening hit markets. In this episode we explain why we see a gradual improvement in 2024, with refinancings driving new issuance in the US and EMEA.