Between the Bells Bell Direct

As we approach the close of FY24, it's a prime opportunity to review your portfolio and investment strategy for the upcoming year. Understanding the current economic landscape will be crucial in making informed decisions for FY25.
We're excited to share an insightful conversation between AMP's Deputy Chief Economist, Diana Mousina, and Bell Direct’s Market Analyst Grady Wulff. Diana and Grady discuss key factors impacting the market for the remainder of FY24 and into FY25.
In this week’s wrap, Diana and Grady delve into:
(0:45): the impact of inflation on bond yields  (3:49): reasons for Diana’s optimistic view on inflation’s outlook (5:00): how central banks can adjust interest rates independently  (7:42): why Diana anticipates rate cuts from both local and Federal Reserve sources  (8:39): a recap of this week’s market movements (9:30): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients (10:00): upcoming economic data to keep an eye on.

Wall St closed higher overnight as the Dow Jones secures its 7th winning day up 0.85%. The S&P 500 gained over half a percent and the tech heavy Nasdaq also rallied 0.27%. In terms of US stocks, both Home Depot and Caterpillar led the Dow in Thursdays trading session, rising more than 2% each.
Over in Europe, markets closed higher as positive momentum was gained from a busy week of earnings. The STOXX600 closed 0.2% up by the closing bell with most sectors ending in the green, led by gas stocks rising 0.9%, whilst autos fell 0.9%. Germany’s DAX finished the day over 1% higher, the French CAC rallied 0.69% and over in the UK the FTSE100 ended the trading session 0.33% in the green.
Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed 1.06% lower with the majority of sectors finishing the day in the red. Losses were led by the consumer discretionary and financial sectors which lost 2.56% and 1.71% respectively. This was offset by the energy sector which gained over half a percent by the closing bell on Thursday.
What to watch today:
The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.3% by market open this morning.On the commodities front this morning,
 Oil is trading 0.72% higher at US$79.52/barrel after a decline in US crude stockpiles shows a tightening supply. Gold is trading 1.61% higher at US$2346/ounce as strong over-the-counter market investment, consistent central bank buying and growing Asian demand all gave gold a boost. And iron ore is trading down 1.77% at US$116.59/tonne.Trading Ideas:
Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Arcadium lithium (ASX:LTM), despite slightly decreasing its 12-month price target to $9.50. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter as LTM provides the largest, most diversified exposure to lithium in terms of mode of upstream production, asset locations, downstream processing and customer markets. It is a key large-cap leverage to lithium prices and sentiment, which is expected to improve over the medium term. In supportive markets, LTM’s growth pipeline could see the company more than double production over the next three years, hence the buy rating is maintained.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on NAB (ASX:NAB), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $33.52 to the range of $31-$31.50 on a pattern formed over 56 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed again on Wednesday as investors reacted to comments made by federal reserve officials this week signalling rates need to stay higher for longer in order to tame inflation to the target rate. The Dow Jones industrial average posted its sixth straight winning day, ending the session up 0.44% to notch the longest green streak in 2024, while the S&P500 closed just 0.03% lower and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.18%, weighed down by poor corporate earnings results. Uber shares fell 5.7% on Wednesday after the ride share giant posted an unexpected net loss and weaker-than-expected booking revenue, while Tesla shares dipped 1.7% on reports the company allegedly committed wire fraud as part of a probe into Tesla’s autopilot system, according to Reuters.
Over in Europe on Wednesday, markets extended the recent rally into the midweek session as investors continued reacting positively to key corporate earnings results. The STOXX600 rose 0.3%, Germany’s DAX added 0.37%, the French CAC climbed 0.7%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 rose 0.5%. Siemens Energy rose 12.8% after raising its outlook for 2024. Sweden’s Bank cut the nation’s interest rates for the first time in 8 years on Wednesday in another sign of European regions digressing from U.S. lead on the rate front.
Across Asia markets on Wednesday, earnings results weighed on investor sentiment in the region which sent markets into negative territory. Japan’s Nikkei led losses with a 1.63% decline as investors responded to disappointing corporate earnings results including out of Toyota and Mitsubishi.
Locally on Wednesday, the ASX traded virtually flat all day before ending the up 0.14% to extend this week’s rally into the midweek session driven by industrial and information tech stocks rallying 0.73% and 0.6% respectively.
Perpetual confirmed it is parting ways with its high value corporate trust business to US private equity firm, KKR, for $2.18bn. On the same day, Perpetual chief executive Rob Adams announced his retirement from the global financial services organisation.  This division of the business has been a key driver of Perpetual’s global success and growth in recent times which may be why investors responded so negatively on Wednesday with the share price plunging 6.95%.
Goodman Group hit a record high intra-day yesterday before investors took some profits after the industrial property company released an impressive third quarter update including upgrading FY24 earnings guidance for a second time, with the company now expecting EPS growth of 13% in FY24. 
What to watch today:
Ahead of the local trading session here today, the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open Thursday’s session down 0.24% on global market turbulence overnight.AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 102.35 Japanese Yen, 52.57 British pence and NZ$1.10.Trading Ideas:
Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Alpha HPA (ASX:A4N) from $1.75 to $1.95 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the specialty metals and technology company following the release of a comprehensive market update including an increase in the price outlook for HPA equivalent, increased demand and Alpha HPA’s high purity aluminium products having value adding applications across lithium ion battery, micro-LED and semiconductor manufacturing.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Nufarm (ASX:NUF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 10-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $5.25 to the range of $5.57 to $5.65 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday as investors questioned whether the recent rally can be maintained given the latest economic data readings painting a mixed picture about the rate cut outlook in the US with the odds for a cut in September currently sitting at 67%. The Dow Jones rose 0.08% for a fifth consecutive winning day, the S&P500 added 0.13%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the session down 0.1%. Treasury yields declining on Tuesday was also key driver of the Dow and S&P500 rising as investor optimism for rate cuts boosted appetite for equities. Disney shares plunged 9.5% after the media and entertainment giant missed on revenue expectations, while Peleton shares rose 15.5% on speculation that private equity firms have been considering buying out the company.
In Europe overnight, markets closed in the green as investors responded to the release of corporate earnings results in the region. The STOXX600 rose 1.15% boosted by financial services stocks, Germany’s DAX added 1.4%, the French CAC rose just under 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 1.22%. Swiss banking giant UBS rallied 9.5% on Tuesday after beating expectations by returning to a quarterly net profit in the latest results while Italian bank UniCredit rose 3.6% on reporting a net profit of $2.6bn euros for the first quarter which beat consensus estimates.
The Asia markets closed mostly in positive territory on Tuesday led by South Korea’s Kospi index gaining 2.16% as heavyweights like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix did most of the heavy lifting. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.57% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day down 0.51%
Locally, the ASX extended the recent rally into Tuesday’s session with the key index closing the day up 1.44% with all 11 sectors ending the session in the green led by the utilities sector jumping 2.82%. Investor sentiment was boosted on Tuesday by the RBA maintaining Australia’s cash rate at the current level of 4.35% for the next period which was widely expected.
The market didn’t appear to respond to the RBA’s upward revision for inflation expectations over the remainder of 2024 though. Services and fuel inflation remain elevated and are the key drivers of inflation remaining sticky, however, Australia’s central bank drastically revised the inflation outlook upwards from the previous expectation of inflation hitting 3.2% by the December quarter of 2024 to now expecting inflation to remain at 3.8% in the December quarter. This is expected to be driven by wage price index remaining elevated, subdued economic growth, higher imports, higher employment, higher household income, and lower labour productivity.
What to watch today:
Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX to open the day up 0.18% tracking the gains from some key market regions overnight.On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading flat at US$78.48/barrel, gold is down 0.53% at US$2313.61/ounce and iron ore is up 1.3% at US$119.56/tonne.AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 101.96 Japanese Yen, 52.67 British Pence and NZ$1.10 cents.Trading Ideas:
Bell Potter has downgraded Imdex (ASX:IMD) to a sell rating from a hold and lowered the 12-month price target on the global provider of end-to-end mining services and products company following the release of a soft Q3 update from the company including revenue up 4% YoY but down 6% on a like-for-like basis, and ongoing weakness in global exploration activity is expected to impact the business into FY25.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Car Group (ASX:CAR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 19-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $34.83 to $36.40 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher overnight as traders lifted Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The Dow Jones closed 0.46% higher, the S&P 500 ended the trading session over 1% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 1.19% in the green.
Over in Europe, markets closed higher following the release of softer-than-expected US jobs data. Germany’s DAX rose 0.96% and the French CAC and the FTSE 100 both gained nearly half a percent.
Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed 0.70% higher with the majority of the sectors closing in the green. The real estate and utilities sectors led gains, rallying 1.73% and 1.24% respectively. This was offset by the industrial sector which fell 0.18%.
What to watch today:
The Australian share market is set to open higher with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.49% at market open this morning.On the commodities front this morning,
 Oil is trading 0.75% higher at 78 US dollars and 70 cents a barrel after Saudi Arabia rose crude prices for Asian customers, suggesting confidence in global energy demand. Gold is trading 0.98% higher at 2323 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.04% lower at 118 US dollars and 3 cents a tonne.Trading Idea:
Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) despite slightly lowering its 12-month price target to $9.20. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter after the outlook for GNC is shifting towards the 2024-25 crop and potential La Nina development and what this means for FY25 earnings. Improved east coast prospects have emerged at a period when Northern Hemisphere crop conditions have arguably deteriorated and would be typically viewed as favourable for accumulation margins and oilseed basis.

Wall street closed higher on Friday bolstered by a softer-than-expected jobs report which boosted investor hopes of rate cuts in the near future. The Dow Jones rose 1.18%, the S&P500 added 1.26% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.99% on the rate cut optimism.
Non-farm payrolls indicated 175,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in April, which was well below the 240,000 economists were expecting and the US unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% for the month. Wages data also came in below expectations which is a strong sign inflation is becoming less sticky as wages inflation has been a key point of stubborn inflation over the last year. Apple shares rose almost 6% on Friday after the tech giant announced a near US$110bn share repurchase and beat analysts’ expectations for 1st quarter results.
Over in Europe on Friday, markets closed higher to round out a negative week as investors responded to corporate earnings results. The STOXX600 ended the day up 0.44%, Germany’s DAX added 0.6%, the French CAC rose 0.54%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.51%.
In Asia on Friday markets ended the week in positive territory led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 1.48%.
Locally on Friday, the ASX200 rose 0.55% as every sector ended the day in positive territory led by consumer discretionary stocks rising just shy of 2% while reit stocks added 1.55%. Block was the best performing stock locally rising 9.83% after the payment platform posted impressive quarterly results that exceeded analysts’ expectations including gross profit rising 22% year-on-year to US$2.09bn.
Gold miners came under pressure locally on Friday amid the sliding price of the precious commodity with evolution mining falling 5.57%, while Ramelius Resources fell 2.04% and Regis Resources declined 1.91%.
Diversified financial house Macquarie fell on Friday after the company released full year results including net profit falling 32% while net operating income declined 12% over the year. Macquarie attributed the fall in key results to a sharp decline in the commodities and global markets business, and a fall in the Macquarie Asset Management business division.
What to watch today:
Ahead of the first trading session for the new trading week, the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open Monday’s session up 0.3% on the back of Wall Street’s jobs-driven rally on Friday.Looking at commodities this morning, oil is trading 1.22% lower at US$77.99/barrel, gold is down 0.13% 2301.30/ounce and iron ore is down 0.04% at US$118.03/tonne.AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 101.08 Japanese yen, 52.68 British pence and NZ$1.10.Trading Ideas:
Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC) from $1.50 to $1.54 and maintain a buy rating on the nickel producer following the company’s release of its March quarter production from its Rotary Kilm Electric Furnace operations including production of 31,840 tonnes of contained nickel and cash costs below Bell Potter’s forecasts. The company faced impacted mining production from its Hengjaya Mine however, mixed hydroxide precipitate production increased 16% which ramped up towards nameplate capacity. Bell Potter’s analyst sees tailwinds are increasing in CY24 once mining permit delays are overcome.