Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

Another CRE securitized structure is reportedly causing losses for its top tier, this one in another country and from a different corner of the real estate market. This matches recent reports that big banks are quietly beginning to sell their seniors in the space. Moreover, US homebuilder activity has plunged to new lows as the crosscurrents in the economy and financing are getting more unfavorable. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Failures on Property Painhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/pimco-warns-of-more-regional-bank-failures-on-commercial-property-pain
Bloomberg CMBS Buyers Face First Europe AAA Loss Since Credit Crunchhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/cmbs-buyers-set-for-first-europe-aaa-loss-since-credit-crunch
Bloomberg Losses Pile Up in Top-Rated Bonds Backed by Commercial Real Estate Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/cmbs-buyers-suffer-first-loss-on-aaa-debt-since-financial-crisis
CREDiQ CRE CLO Distress Rate Widens to 9.74%https://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/06/14/cre-clo-distress-rate-widens-to-9-74/
CREDiQ Loan Modifications Swell 195% in 12 Monthshttps://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/06/21/loan-modifications-swell-195-in-12-months-cred-iq/
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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

The Swiss National Bank surprised Economists by cutting rates for the second time in a row. Citing a number of potential worries starting with more recession, the rate cuts are aligned with growing dollar troubles roiling the rest of the world. Major currencies are sinking fast, hitting new lows and pointing toward the same reasoning just acted on in Switzerland. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg SNB Silence Sets Up Another Rate-Cut Cliffhangerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/swiss-national-bank-interest-rate-cuts-central-bank-silence-sets-up-cliffhanger
Switzerland Economic forecast largely unchanged: Swiss growth in 2024 to be below averagehttps://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/media-releases.msg-id-101432.html
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 20, 2024https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240620
CNBC Switzerland makes second interest rate cut as major economies diverge on monetary policy easinghttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/switzerland-trims-key-interest-rate-to-1point25percent-in-second-cut-of-the-year.html
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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

A Japanese bank giant announced it was going to begin selling tens of BILLIONS in USTs and other European government bonds knowing full well the institution is going to take huge losses on the sales. Is this the start of another bank run? Will this kill the Treasury market? 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
About Norinchukin Bankhttps://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/about/
Norinchukin Financial Summary Fiscal Year 2023https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/ir/results/pdf/cap_results2023_04_02.pdf
Bloomberg Echoes of 2009 Crisis Thrust Japanese Bank Norinchukin Back Into Spotlighthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/japan-s-bank-for-farmers-and-fishermen-returns-to-spotlight-for-overseas-losses
Bloomberg Norinchukin Bank to Sell $63 Billion of Sovereign Bondshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-18/norinchukin-bank-to-sell-63-billion-of-bonds-to-stem-losses
Bloomberg A $1.3 Trillion Fund Pool for Junk-Rated US Firms Has Unlikely Lifeline: Japan's Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/the-1-3-trillion-clo-market-grows-more-dependent-on-japan-banks
FRBNY Standing Repo Facility Approved Counterpartieshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/srflist-231201
CBO Budget Update June 2024https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/60039-Outlook-2024.pdf
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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

The data continues to pour in showing US consumers have indeed hit the wall. Spending is down according to a variety of sources, including the latest update on retail sales for May. There is also a growing body of evidence indicating there is more weakness to come starting with summer vacations. All this indicates the chances of full-blown recession are rising sharply. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNN  Evidence is mounting that the American shopper is cutting backhttps://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/18/economy/us-retail-sales-may/index.html
McKinsey & Company An update on US consumer sentiment: Are consumers on the cusp of a shift?https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer
Deloitte Summer Travel Survey 2024https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/articles/us187281_cic_summer-travel/DI_2024-summer-travel.pdf
Federal Reserve Beige Book May 29, 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240529.pdf
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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Housing prices in China plunged in May, accelerating sharply after April's big drop indicating the situation in the real estate market is getting closer to becoming disorderly. There will be fallout across the world should that happen, as there already is across China's economy as the latest data also showed. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Neededhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-17/world-economy-latest-china-property-sector-plunge-needs-more-support
China's NBS Situation in Real Estatehttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202406/t20240617_1954711.html
Bloomberg China Steps Up Warning on Relentless Bond-Buying Frenzyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-17/china-steps-up-warnings-on-relentless-bond-buying-frenzy
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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corporate warnings.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
FRB Chair Jay Powell Press Conference June 12, 2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqaxWf7gsQATranscript:https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240612.pdf
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates