Global Data Pod J.P. Morgan Research

A disappointing set of flash PMIs challenge our call for a rotation toward better manufacturing relative to services and toward an improved Europe relative to the US. Noisy signals, solid fundamentals (with another strong US payrolls expected next week), and easing borrowing costs keep us believing that the expansion is still mid-cycle. Fed to be encouraged by further balance in the data but patient--remaining on hold next week.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 26 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global EconomistSamantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
 
This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4749892-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Ravi Balakrishnan, Chief European Economist, and Alexander Wise, from Long-term Strategy discuss a new special report on debt challenges in the Euro area.
This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725211-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures  for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The global expansion is moderating but we maintain conviction that the underlying supports are strong. Solid US retail sales and manufacturing reports reinforce the lift underway in global industry. At the same time, we are more cautious on the building enthusiasm for the immaculate disinflation. Disappointing China spending data temper the outlook but are largely a domestic affair.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 19 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Inflation over the past two months has moderated across many economies, a welcome relief that challenges our sticky inflation call. However, increasing confidence in growth suggests that even if rate cutting cycles are seeing a green light to commence, the easing path could still be shallower than expected. Spillovers from Fed easing do not outweigh domestic conditions in the EM.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The latest data show a global expansion that is both resilient and moderating. The June global PMIs remain consistent with strong growth at midyear, while a slide in business expectations points to concerns in the months ahead as political uncertainties heat up. In the US a solid payrolls report fuels consumer purchasing power but the moderation in the pace of growth could portend more slowing to come. With hints of inflation slowing as well, the direction of travel is toward potentially earlier rate cuts.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 5 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.