Forward Guidance Blockworks

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Midas’ website: https://midas.app/
Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa
Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/
Fabrice Grinda on Twitter https://x.com/fabricegrinda
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro
(05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000
(07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021
(11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real)
(16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This?
(19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical
(21:19) VanEck Ad
(21:59) Palantir and Anduril
(26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S.
(30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022
(33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI)
(36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto
(39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain
(44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis
(47:50) Tether and Circle
(49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.)
(51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore
(53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare
(57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon?
(58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas
(59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc.
(01:04:27) FedNow
(01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem?
(01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk
(01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024
(01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech
(01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7
Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/
Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary
Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now
(07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market?
(20:04) VanEck Ad
(20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations
(26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers
(28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks
(29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners
(33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump
(37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025)
(40:13) China
(46:32) Trump on Crypto
(48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why?
(54:12) Tarriff Basket
(56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs)
(58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company
(01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English
(01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed
(01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished
(01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks?
(01:19:03) China's AI Stocks
(01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now
(01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX
(01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500"

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Eric Pachman on Twitter https://x.com/EricPachman
Follow Bancreek on Twitter https://x.com/bancreek
Bancreek’s CPI tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/checking-the-tape-may-2024-cpiu
Bancreek’s PCE tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/april-2024-pce-update
Bancreek’s labor market tree map: https://www.bancreek.com/p/us-employment-data-treemap
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:57) The U.S. Labor Market
(03:57) Tree Map Of Where New U.S. Jobs Are Being Created (It's A LOT In Healthcare and Government Sector)
(19:50) VanEck Ad
(23:17) The Growth In U.S. Government Jobs
(28:39) U.S. Healthcare Industry Is Incentivized For High Prices And High Job Growth Is A Consequence
(45:00) Homebuilding, Oil & Gas, and Retail
(52:11) Inflation Masterclass: Differences Between CPI & PCE
(01:11:35) Healthcare in PCE & CPI
(01:28:46) With Housing Inflation Where It Is, It Is Nearly Statistically Impossible For Inflation To Be At Or Below The Fed's Target of 2%
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Barry Knapp on Twitter https://x.com/barryknapp?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma
(09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve
(34:06) VanEck Ad
(34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market)
(38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy
(43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective
(48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products
(50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008
(01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS)

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter @biancoresearch
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
17:39 VanEck Ad

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
William English’s work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english
William English’s co-authored new book, “Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation”: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation
William English’s co-authored Chapter on the Fed’s Balance Sheet: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781800375321/book-part-9781800375321-7.xml
William English’s 2012 paper on the rationale and effects of QE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-federal-reserve39s-large-scale-asset-purchase-programs-rationale-and-effects.htm
“Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations”: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/interest-rate-risks-and-bank-equity-valuations.htm
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:31) Fiscal Policy & Monetary Policy Never Really Were Separated. But It Would Nice If They Were
(03:49) Do High Interest Rates Dissuade Government Borrowing?
(07:09) The Fed Doesn't Like To Discuss Fiscal Policy
(09:53) The Fed's Balance Sheet Expansion of 2020 & 2021
(13:57) The Effects of Quantitative Easing (QE), In Theory And Practice
(18:59) I Don't Remember Us (The Fed) Thinking A Lot About Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
(23:41) VanEck Ad
(24:22) The October 2008 Decision To Allow The Fed To Pay Interest On Reserves Assisted the Implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE), Which Began ~1 Month Later
(29:15) The Striking Thing About The Asset Purchases Was The Size
(32:32) Forward Guidance vs. QE: Which Is More Powerful, And Which Has More Knock-on Effects?
(36:27) Forward Guidance Is More Powerful When Initial Market Expectations About Future Policy Rates Are Incorrect
(44:37) Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework Adopted By The Fed In 2020
(52:48) Fast QE & Slow QT = Secular Rise In Size of Fed Balance Sheet
(57:27) Fed's Decision To Slow Pace of QT Was Due To Desire To Avoid a "Snafu" In Money Markets Such As In September 2019
(01:02:36) The Bernanke Doctrine: Should Interest Rate Policy & Balance Sheet Policy Always Be Pointed In The Same Direction?
(01:07:12) If Balance Sheet Policy Is Moving The Opposite Direction Of Interest Rate Policy, Does That Weaken The Signaling Impact Of Balance Sheet Policy?
(01:11:50) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR)
(01:19:34) Impact Of Interest Rate Movements On Bank Equity Valuations

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.