Israel Update Tablet Studios

Israel put its faith in building a small, Star Wars style, technological army. But that army was defeated on Oct. 7, by a Mad Max ragtag band of terrorists.
Mike and Gadi discuss the failure of the IDF to adapt to this new Mad Max world. But in light of President Biden's threat to withhold weapons, Israel must not only change its military thinking, it also has to reform its war economics if it is to achieve what Mike and Can Kasapoglu call in a new piece in Tablet, "operational sovereignty." 
Also in this episode: has Joe Biden taken his anti-Israeli policy one step too far?

The international media – like much of the Never-Bibi Israeli media – told you a story about Hamas greenlighting a hostage deal, only to have their new position met with an Israeli incursion into Rafah. What actually happened is very far from that media tale. The US and Hamas have been negotiating over Israel's head, with the American making promises Israel can't afford to keep. When Prime Minister Netanyahu understood what was going on, he moved to intercept the dangerous move. Here's what happened behind the scenes. Mike and Gadi explain. 
Also: what you need to know about how tough politicians conduct policy, and what they can learn from the bouncers in Tel-Aviv's roughest bars. 

The Biden administration is pressing for an end to the war in a hostage deal, while working to topple Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It has many allies and tools in this effort: the threat to sanction an IDF unit, the looming specter of international arrest warrants from the Hague, the Israeli anti-Netanyahu press and, from within the cabinet, an attempt by Benny Gantz to push for accepting a near-surrender hostage deal. At the same time, the right flank of Netanyahu's coalition has issued an ultimatum: should such a deal come to pass they will opt out and topple the coalition. Has Netanyahu reached the end of his rope?

Though Iran's attack was almost wholly intercepted, by the combined Israeli-American efforts, this was no victory over Iran. Mike explains why a defensive strategy can never defeat an offensive dominant one. Then there is also the high cost of the defense systems relative to cheapness and quantity of Iran's drones and missiles. Iran has also collected a great deal of intelligence about the systems it is facing. But above all it successfully changed the rules of the game - and the US has let it do so. It now remains to be seen how Israel will respond.

Last Thursday, President Biden had a very tense conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, demanding among other things, that the Israelis provide more humanitarian aid to Gazan civilians, and take concrete steps to achieve an immediate ceasefire, including by sending an empowered delegation to Cairo to negotiate a hostages-for-prisoners swap with Hamas. Several days later, the Israeli delegation appeared in Cairo to negotiate and, at the same time, the Israel Defense Forces announced the withdrawal of all of their maneuver forces from the Gaza Strip. Many observers speculate that the withdrawal came in response to American pressure. Israeli officials deny that claim, and Netanyahu has promised that an operation to take Rafah will definitely take place — but will it? Mike and Gadi — like everyone else — don't have clear answers to the question, but they have a number of thoughtful considerations about it.

The protest against Netanyahu is reaching a dangerous new level of violence, with a recent attempt to break through the barriers protecting his family’s private residence. Ronen Bar, the director of Israel’s security service, the Shabak, has warned that the protest is spilling over into the danger zone. Mike and Gadi can’t help but wonder, though, why is anyone not charged with a crime here, and how many would have been charged if violent right-wing protesters tried to breach security around a left-wing politician’s home.
Plus: the strike that killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander has increased the danger of regional escalation to a level not seen yet since the beginning of the war.