Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money

It feels like a tale of two economies right now.

If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs.

But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story.

One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and households are increasingly forced to turn to expensive credit cards to fund living essentials.

Which of these is more accurate?

And are things likely to get better or worse from here?

For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analysis and proprietor of MacroMavens.com

Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/



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#inflation #deflation #recession

The Dow just had its best week of 2024.

And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.

As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two.

Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.

Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.



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#investing #stocks #jobsreport

A few days ago, an article appeared in the Financial Times revealing that "Last month, the government-sponsored mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac filed a proposal with its regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to enter into the secondary mortgage market, otherwise known as home equity loans"

The article's author, Meredith Whitney, claims that if approved, this "could begin to unleash almost $1tn into consumers’ wallets. By the autumn, it could be on its way to $2tn."

That would be a tremendous stimulus to the economy.

But is it a good idea?

Putting aside for a moment concerns of its potential inflationary impact, the Global Financial Crisis was a credit crisis triggered by bad housing loans.

Would allowing the government-sponsored entities like Freddie Mac to unleash a flood of new loans risk repeating the sins of the past?

For answers, we're fortunate to turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright.



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#housingmarket #homeequity #mortgageloans

Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions"

And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets.

For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.

Visit David at https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/



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#jobs #recession2024 #interestrates

Stubbornly sticky inflation looks to be turning the Federal Reserve's campaign of Higher For Longer interest rates into "Higher For Even Longer"

Today's guest warns that "Markets are unprepared for price growth that is becoming entrenched".

Nor do they appear prepared for bond yields to remain at today's rates, let alone march higher from here.

Remember, it was only a few short months ago that the markets were pricing in 7 rate cuts in 2024. Now it's appearing they'll be lucky to get only 2 or 3.

And who knows?

They may not get any.

Does this mean financial asset prices need to adjust downward in some material way?

And will the economy slow faster than expected from here?

Perhaps the recent weakness we've saw in stocks in April was Wall Street finally awakening to these potential ramifications.

For an analyst's perspective on the matter, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.



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#volatility #bullmarket #interestrates

Since today's guest was last on this program back in December, the world has continued to fracture geopolitically.

Where is that trend taking us?

And what will the impact be on global prosperity?

The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia.

So to provide a perspective from a non-Western point of view, I'm pleased to welcome Michael Every back onto the program.

Michael is Global Strategist at Rabobank, and joins us from Thailand.



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#geopolitics #trade #investing