UBS On-Air: Market Moves Client Strategy Office

The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates. Investors have desperately sought additional guidance on policy, putting the fabled dot plots in focus. These black smudges on a piece of paper are really not that helpful. More Fed members think that there will be two cuts this year than anything else. Given the disinflation forces in the economy, several of those who suggested one cut likely give a high probability to two cuts.

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on May inflation data, along with the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Economists are overstimulated by the US today. We have the excitement of US consumer price inflation. We have the excitement of a Federal Reserve policy decision. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference can be relied upon to dampen economists’ passions. The Fed is unlikely to change policy. The fabled dot plots of policy projections will add confusion (a black mark on a chart gives no sense of confidence or risk).

As mid-year approaches, we take time to reflect on fixed income performance drivers over 1H24, along with preview performance expectations for the balance of the year. We also outline expectations for monetary policy and rates, along with review positioning recommendations across fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets dislike any increase in uncertainty. Politics in Europe was judged to have increased uncertainty, and markets responded accordingly. It is the change in uncertainty that matters. The outcomes of the thousands of US elections held this November are also a source of considerable uncertainty, but, perceptions of that level of uncertainty are not changing very much.

With growth fears last week having eased, investor confidence in a soft-landing having been reinforced, and the S&P 500 having hit an all-time-high, Jason explains why the story is likely to continue this week with the May inflation data and the FOMC meeting. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy