At Any Rate J.P. Morgan Research

Oil demand grew by 1.33 mbd in 1Q24, with crude-derived products such as gasoline and diesel comprising only 40% of that growth, compared to petrochemical products that use lighter natural gas liquids as a feedstock. In April, half of the 1.3 mbd YoY rise in reported demand came from petrochemicals, marking the shift into more crude-heavy summer consumption. Oil demand is moving from a seasonally low April and May into a peak summer travel season. Importantly, the composition in demand growth will likely shift from liquids-heavy petrochemicals to crude-rich products like gasoline and jet fuel. We still expect overall market fundamentals to improve and see a similar price action as observed last summer, with Brent oil moving $10 higher from current levels by September.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4711902-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Afonso Borges discuss the medium-term outlook for Treasury supply and the risks to the Treasury market ahead of next week’s first-tier data.
 
Speakers:
US Treasury Market Daily – Jay Barry
US Fixed Income Markets Weekly – Jay Barry
 
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4708661-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
 

FX markets focus will become US-centric with payrolls, CPI and FOMC on the calendar. But June also brings other G10 central bank meetings. We discuss outlook for currencies going into this key month and event risk.
 
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
 
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4715460-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Fabio Bassi and Aditya Chordia discuss some current key themes and topics for European rate markets. They cover the upcoming May ECB meeting, valuations in swap and bond space views on swap spreads, the upcoming French ratings review and the relevance of European Parliamentary and the UK general election for rate markets. 
 
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4713356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui and Tania Escobedo, revisit the forces behind the Mexican peso’s regime shift from a high-beta risk proxy to a lower-beta currency on a trend-appreciation path as Mexico benefits from the geopolitical dividends of nearshoring. They also touch upon upcoming risks around elections, as well as valuations.
 
SpeakersLuis Oganes, Global Head of Macro ResearchSaad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets StrategyTania Escobedo Jacob, Emerging Markets Strategy
 
This podcast was recorded on 28 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4703117-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In the past two weeks, US Henry Hub and European TTF have rallied in price significantly. With US prices at one point climbing above $2.70/MMBtu and TTF crossing 35 EUR/MWh, we will discuss the drivers of these price moves higher, including the reduction in supply currently in place - both in US production and global LNG supply -  and the fundamental changes that we expect to see as a result of the recent price rally. Additionally, we will dive deeper into headlines surrounding Golden Pass and the Ukraine/Russia transit deal, which could have implications to our current price forecast.
 
Speakers:  
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
 
This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4705416-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.