Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

The data continues to pour in showing US consumers have indeed hit the wall. Spending is down according to a variety of sources, including the latest update on retail sales for May. There is also a growing body of evidence indicating there is more weakness to come starting with summer vacations. All this indicates the chances of full-blown recession are rising sharply. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNN  Evidence is mounting that the American shopper is cutting backhttps://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/18/economy/us-retail-sales-may/index.html
McKinsey & Company An update on US consumer sentiment: Are consumers on the cusp of a shift?https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer
Deloitte Summer Travel Survey 2024https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/articles/us187281_cic_summer-travel/DI_2024-summer-travel.pdf
Federal Reserve Beige Book May 29, 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240529.pdf
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Housing prices in China plunged in May, accelerating sharply after April's big drop indicating the situation in the real estate market is getting closer to becoming disorderly. There will be fallout across the world should that happen, as there already is across China's economy as the latest data also showed. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Neededhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-17/world-economy-latest-china-property-sector-plunge-needs-more-support
China's NBS Situation in Real Estatehttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202406/t20240617_1954711.html
Bloomberg China Steps Up Warning on Relentless Bond-Buying Frenzyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-17/china-steps-up-warnings-on-relentless-bond-buying-frenzy
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Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corporate warnings.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
FRB Chair Jay Powell Press Conference June 12, 2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqaxWf7gsQATranscript:https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240612.pdf
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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Conventional 'wisdom' says that when US$ interest rates go down the dollar goes down with them. Yet, it hasn't been uncommon to find Treasury yields falling as the dollar's exchange value jumps. When that has happened, nothing good comes from it. We're starting to see what looks to be that scenario setting up right now. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates
I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the FOMC's hawkish dots. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jay Powell's Press Conferencehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZE5tF_IMU
CNBC Quotes from Jay Powell Press Conferencehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-june-fed-rate-decision.html
Politico Biden’s economy: Good metrics, bad vibes, few levershttps://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/07/biden-has-an-economic-story-to-tell-and-yet-00162338
Guardian Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Bidenhttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden
BLS Business Employment Dynamics Summaryhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htm
Table 4'https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t04.htm
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates
Walgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today's May CPI completely backs up everything we've been seeing. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Walgreens Walgreens Introduces Summer of Savingshttps://www.walgreensbootsalliance.com/news-media/press-releases/2024/walgreens-introduces-summer-savings
Quartz Amazon, Walmart, and Big Retail’s race to cut priceshttps://qz.com/target-walmart-amazon-walgreens-price-cuts-consumers-1851507920
Bloomberg  Big Oil’s Blockbuster $114 Billion Investor Payout Is Most Everhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/big-oil-pays-out-record-114-billion-in-share-buybacks-and-dividends
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