Behind the Markets Podcast Behind the Markets on Wharton Business Radio

Show from 05/17/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel delve into the latest market trends, starting with recent positive inflation data. The Prof notes concerns over various economic indicators, such as soft retail sales and housing starts, while emphasizing strong earnings and technical market strength. He also mentions the rise in commodity prices, particularly copper, driven by AI-related demand. Despite some economic weaknesses, The Professor remains bullish on the market’s short-term technicals. (12:08) Jeremy then welcomes Krishna Kumar, founder and PM at Goose Hollow Capital. They discuss the dominance of tech stocks in the S&P 500, the challenges of high valuations, and the strategic importance of commodities in portfolios. Krishma elaborates on the need for tactical investment strategies. He talks about the potential of emerging markets, and the importance of diversifying beyond traditional U.S.-centric portfolios.

Guest: Krishna Kumar is the CIO of Goose Hollow Capital Management, a boutique investment management firm based in the NY area. He has two decades of markets experience with expertise in derivatives trading and has managed size-able multi-asset portfolios at two large Hedge Funds. Prior to his buy-side career, Mr. Kumar worked in Derivatives at Citi and Barclays. He was a pioneer in creating Systematic Strategies at Barclays. He has an undergraduate degree in Mathematics and Graduate degree in Computational Finance. He has been applying machine learning techniques to Macro Markets.

Learn more about Krishna at: https://goosehollowcapital.com/

Follow Krishna on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/krishna-kumar-mba-89372aa

Show from 05/10/24

Jeremy Schwartz, alongside Elisabeth Reynolds from MIT and Liza Tobin from SESP, discuss the dynamic landscape of U.S. competitiveness in technology and manufacturing. The conversation focuses on the implications of the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which are pivotal in revitalizing the U.S. manufacturing sector through substantial governmental investment and policy support. Elisabeth and Liza highlight the strategic need to strengthen supply chains and enhance technological advancements to compete globally, particularly against China’s long standing manufacturing strategies. They emphasize the importance of integrating advanced manufacturing technologies and digital capabilities to sustain economic security and industrial innovation in the U.S.

Guests: Elisabeth Reynolds is a Lecturer and Principal Research Scientist focused on systems of innovation, regional economic development and industrial competitiveness. Her research and practice centers on regional cluster development and innovation systems as well as advanced manufacturing, growing innovative companies to scale, and building innovation capacity in developed and developing countries. She recently served in the Biden Administration at the National Economic Council as Special Assistant to the President for Manufacturing and Economic Development from 2021 to October, 2022. In that capacity, she was engaged in many of the country’s supply chain challenges as well as helped to develop the Biden Administration’s manufacturing agenda and broader industrial strategy including around infrastructure, semiconductors and clean energy.

Liza Tobin is the senior director of research and analysis for economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project. Before joining SCSP, she served on the National Security Council staff as China director, where she led the development of multiple US strategies and policies related to China, including on trade and economics, climate and the environment, military issues, and China’s influence beyond the Indo-Pacific. Before serving at the National Security Council, Ms. Tobin worked for more than a decade in various capacities as a China specialist for the US government, including as a senior adviser at the US Indo-Pacific Command and an economic analyst at the CIA, and in various roles in the private sector and academia. She holds an MA in international relations with concentrations in China studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, a graduate certificate from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center, and a BA in China studies and biblical studies from Gordon College.

Learn more about Elisabeth: https://dusp.mit.edu/people/elisabeth-reynolds

Follow Elisabeth on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/elisabeth-reynolds

Learn more about Liza: https://itif.org/person/liza-tobin/

Follow Liza on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/liza-tobin-b9b902200

Show from 05/03/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest economic data and market reactions. Prof. Siegel highlights the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to maintain patience in policy adjustments amidst mixed economic signals, notably the unexpected benefits of subdued wage growth and soft payroll numbers, despite persistent price pressures in certain sectors. (12:08) The conversation then transitions to guests Constance and Samuel, who delve into economic forecasts and the impact of ongoing inflation trends on future Federal Reserve actions. Samuel emphasizes the need to pay attention to businesses rather than only focusing on what The Fed releases. Constance gives great examples of productivity around AI. The group tackles global economic conditions affecting markets today. They discuss energy prices all the way to international manufacturing shifts.

Guests: Hunter holds a BA in Economics and Sociology from New York University, a master's degree from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and the Certified Business Economist designation. She is an expert in macroeconomic and industry analysis and is recognized for being among the first economists to forecast pivotal economic events, including the impacts of COVID-19 on the US and other global economies, the 2007 real estate and credit crisis, and the 2001 burst of the Dotcom bubble. Hunter joins AIG from KPMG, where she served as a chief economist since 2013 and a member of the growth and strategy leadership team since 2020. Previously, she has served as a deputy chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, where she helped lead the management of over $500 billion in fixed-income assets.

Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed.

Follow Constance on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/constance-l-hunter

Follow Constance on (X)Twitter: @ConstanceHunter

Follow Samuel on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/samuelerines

Follow Samuel on (X)Twitter: @SamuelRines

Show from 04/26/24

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel dive into this week's market dynamics, starting with a discussion on the unexpectedly low GDP report. Professor Siegel shares his concerns but offers a more optimistic outlook based on detailed analysis of positive economic data indicators, suggesting a better performance in the upcoming quarters. (14:52) Jeremy transitions to guest Jason Hsu of Reliant Global Advisors. The two focus their discussion on the investment landscape in Asia, particularly China and Japan. They assess the valuation of Chinese markets amidst geopolitical tensions. They continue by exploring broader implications for emerging markets, with a comparative analysis of regional investment strategies.

Guest: Jason Hsu is the founder and chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors. Throughout his accomplished career, Jason’s commitment to academic rigor and investor advocacy have led him to research, develop, and bring to market investment strategies that create significant value for investors. At Rayliant, Jason is continuing that commitment by educating investors and offering products to transform the investment ecosystem in Asia and beyond. Prior to his current role, Jason was the co-founder and vice chairman of Research Affiliates.

Learn more about Jason at: https://rayliant.com/team/jason-hsu/

Follow Jason on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu

Show from 04/19/24


Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel begin the discussion by addressing the latest Federal Reserve's maneuvers regarding interest rates. Professor Siegel offers his insights, suggesting cautious optimism due to the strong job market, despite the Fed's conservative stance on upcoming rate cuts. He details how current economic indicators could lead to adjustments in future monetary policy, emphasizing the dual mandate of the Fed to monitor inflation and employment. (13:15) The conversation shifts to Rob Sluymer, Technical Strategist at RBC Wealth Management. Rob brings a unique perspective on the market, focusing on the S&P 500's potential through the lens of technical analysis and market cycles. He offers detailed forecasts, analyzing how long-term cycles could influence immediate investment opportunities and market trends, emphasizing the necessity for investors to recognize and adapt to these cycles for strategic planning.

Follow Rob on X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/rsluymer?lang=en

Follow Rob on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-sluymer-9a59a4b

Show from 04/12/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off this week's episode by discussing a potential attack by Iran on Israel, inflation panic and moving markets. The Prof continues on to pinpoint which shift in the market led to the inflation panic. He suspects quarter one will come ahead of current expectations. (12:06) Jeremy is joined by Aaron as the two talk about the current AI moment and the opportunities it presents. He discusses cyber security and how AI technology can protect from hackers. Jeremy asks about Team 8 and the model they have created. Aaron talks about the intersection of AI and geopolitics and its effects on Team 8. Aaron comments on Europe's regulations surrounding AI. Aaron also discusses the cloud, the Linux hack and the LoanDepot attack.

Guest: Aaron Dubin is the VP of Strategy & Business Research at Team8, where he is responsible for business research at the company and foundry level, in addition to targeted business development, and thought leadership. Previously, Aaron led early-stage strategic cyber investing in New York at Goldman Sachs’ Principal Strategic Investments (PSI) team. Prior to that, Aaron was an Investment Associate at Innovation Endeavors, Former Google Chairman Eric Schmidt’s private VC fund, in both Tel Aviv and New York, while also working as a Teaching Assistant at Cornell Tech in the MBA program.

Learn more about Aaron at: https://team8.vc/team/aaron-dubin/

Follow Aaron on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/aaron-dubin-0aa42842