The Why? Curve Phil Dobbie

Just a week to go before a voting day that’s likely to lead to a radical change in the UK’s political landscape. But what have we learnt about the parties and the personalities that will dominate the new politics, after a parliamentary clean-out of the old team? Will Labour have to cut back even its modest ambitions in the face of economic reality? Will the Conservatives suffer a reversal, or a full-on existential catastrophe? Rob Ford, Professor of Politics at the University of Manchester, and co-author of Brexitland, takes Phil and Roger through what may happen on and after July 4th
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With Labour almost certain to take the reins of power on July 5th, almost none of the incoming ministers have ever run anything bigger than a church fete. Right away they will have to take over billion-pound budgets and huge departments. Is it ridiculous to put gifted but untrained amateurs in charge of the world’s sixth-largest economy? Sir Geoff Mulgan thinks there should be tuition in how to govern for all politicians. The former Blair adviser - now professor of Collective Intelligence, Public Policy and Social Innovation at University College, London - tells Roger and Phil that having leaders who know what they’re doing from day one is crucial for our democracy
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TV debates, TikTok stunts, falling off a paddleboard - does any of it influence how people vote? What works in an election campaign? Does ANYONE read a manifesto? How can politicians connect effectively with the public? Or has everyone already made up their minds? Dr Matt Walsh, head of the School of Journalism, Media and Culture at the University of Cardiff, tells Phil and Roger what, if anything, actually moves the dial.
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Promises galore - more doctors’ surgeries, pension triple-lock plus, free social care, a boost in the size of the army - but how much of any of this can we afford, whoever gets into Number 10 on July 5th? The huge public debt, lack of investment and productivity, and politicians refusal to countenance tax increases all point to sums that don’t add up. Dr Michael Nower of Durham University takes Phil and Roger through the harsh realities behind the campaign rhetoric in the UK’s 2024 election.
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Are leaders ever held to account for starting wars or killing civilians. The International Criminal Court has already issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, and one is in prospect for Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu. Is it right to try to prosecute the leader of a democracy with a functional justice system of its own? Does a court that has mainly jailed African dictators over the last 20 years but ignored the actions of great powers, have any credibility? Dr Clare Frances Moran, lecturer in public international law at Aberdeen University tells Phil and Roger what’s at stake and why it matters.
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The new Russian offensive towards Kharkiv suggests Moscow has seized the initiative in the two-year conflict. With not enough ammunition or soldiers, can Kyiv hold the line? Is the support from the EU, NATO and the US going to last — especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House in January? But also can Vladimir Putin’s war economy in Russia be sustained long enough to gain him eventual victory? Phil and Roger get a perspective on the course of Europe’s longest war since 1945 from Christoph Bluth, Professor of International Relations and Security at the University of Bradford.
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