Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alfonso on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy
10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade
18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?
27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation
34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right
46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election
51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?
55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?
01:02:31 - A "Golden" idea
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All...

Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:02 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - How we utilize AI in our own work
09:14 - Price on fossil hit an all time high
09:54 - The FOMO narrative in investing
11:52 - Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election
19:50 - An unsustainable path
24:37 - Industry performance update
27:58 - Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund?
34:25 - Fees - the big differentiator
38:46 - Key takeaway from the paper "Skew Spectrum"
48:20 - Paper on building a hedge fund allocation
01:00:34 - Thanks for listening
Resources...

In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen
05:45 - Was it all about luck?
07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?
12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?
13:56 - The political pressure on central banks
16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting
23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?
29:50 - What are the

Today, we are joined by our special guest, Graham Robertson who is Partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL, for a wide-ranging conversation about trend following. We discuss how trend following has stood out in recent years and why April 2024 was especially noteworthy, and how Graham views the current interest from investors around the world. We also address to what extent trend following should play a role in your portfolio and what type of environment tends to influence overall performance for the industry based on Principal Component Analysis. Lastly, we discuss how AI might impact the trend following industry, and whether Trend Followers have started saying goodbye to the short fixed income traded, that lasted for more than 2 years.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:56 - Introduction to Graham Robertson
03:40 - How Graham came across trend following
04:56 - Graham's observations in 2024 so far
08:03 - Is China becoming an easier market to trade?
09:01 - How to deal with uncomfortable markets
11:17 - Why April was an interesting month for trend followers
14:54 - A discussion on trend following performance
20:45 - Industry performance update
22:03 - How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA strategies
26:37 - Rating the climate for interest in trend following
31:46 - Which regions or countries are most interested...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert and Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management speak about systematic trend following strategies applied to single stocks, including the many advantages compared to long only buy and hold, but also some of the challenges and technical details related to portfolio construction. Cole is the founder and CEO of Longboard Asset Management, an Arizona-based alternatives fund management firm. He explains why participating in some of the big outlier price moves in mid and small cap stocks is as important as cutting out the many stock which don’t perform, in other words, avoiding the failures while having a systematic process that allows for taking part in the upside are both important.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Cole on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management
08:27 - Diving deep into the strategy
10:45 - What drives the alpha of their strategy?
15:41 - Understanding your investor base
18:07 - Understanding their correlation
19:31 - Thoughts on including international stocks
24:15 - Do they fully fund their portfolio?
27:52 - How they approach dividends
29:14 - Do they loan out stocks?
30:34 - Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?
32:36 - How many

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:59 - Industry performance update
06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply
09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade
11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?
13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?
19:57 - When does it all end?
24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?
27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?
33:09 - What will drive the increasing volatility?
35:10 - The election from a volatility perspective
42:46 - Volatility from a market pricing...