Forward Guidance

Blockworks
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Forward Guidance

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

  1. 3 DGN GELEDEN

    Breaking Down The Current Business Cycle | Eric Basmajian

    In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en Follow Eric’s Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle (09:24) Is this Cycle Different? (12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles (18:20) The Cyclical Economy (21:52) The Housing Sector (26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing (30:44) Measuring the Labor Market (34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims (39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims (42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions (47:12) The Unemployment Rate (50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve (57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation? (01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    1u 3m

  2. 6 DGN GELEDEN

    Debating The Election’s Impact On Markets | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss election trades and Trump’s impact on markets, the number of Fed rate cuts currently priced in, and the ongoing bull market in gold. We also delve into the outlook for Bitcoin, how to measure a hard or soft landing, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_VTM8KHaUHEG4hawqaDJNMF8TddDRM-t/view?usp=drive_link — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:42) Economy is Doing Well (05:09) Earnings vs Economic Data (08:29) Actionable Market Ideas (11:38) Election & Trump Trades (18:46) Small Caps & Gold (21:34) Bitcoin & Microstrategy (24:45) Contrarian Gold Take (27:52) Trump Trade Hedges (29:19) Fed Rate Cutting Path (33:07) Economic Growth Under Trump (38:12) Volatility & Election Hedging (41:50) Measuring Hard & Soft Landings (45:52) Economy Under Biden/Harris (49:45) AI & The Future Economy — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    55 min

  3. 16 OKT.

    The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer

    In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to discuss his perspective on equities, the subsectors he’s trading, and his outlook on commodities. We also delve into the Trump trades, the metals market, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Tony Greer: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Perspective on Equities, Rates, & Commodities (06:38) Win-Win for Equities (09:59) Election & Trump Trades (13:48) A Trader's Market (17:07) Fed & Macro (20:09) Bond Yields & Volatility (22:56) Market Sentiment Push & Pull (25:09) Oil & Geopolitics (30:31) Gold Market (35:29) Precious & Base Metals (37:57) FX Market (39:04) Bitcoin & Crypto (41:28) What Would Make Tony Bearish? (43:03) Tony's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    45 min

  4. 12 OKT.

    What is Macro Telling Us? | Weekly Roundup

    This week we sat down at Permissionless to discuss the latest CPI and labor market data, the likely noise in the upcoming labor data, and the impact of coordinated central banking. We also delve into the election, its potential impact on crypto, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:26) Inflation & Labor Market Data (06:03) Inflation Mechanics (10:13) Labor Market Noise (14:13) Coordinated Central Banking (19:26) Bifurcated Economy (23:45) Is Macro Bullish or Bearish? (30:11) Crypto & the Election (36:18) Bitcoin Outlook & Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    41 min

  5. 9 OKT.

    LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream

    In this episode, Jonah and Avi join Felix to discuss the current macro regime, Bitcoin and the crypto market, and the impact of forward guidance. They also delve into the ongoing uncertainty throughout markets, the Fed risking its credibility, and the economic bifurcation playing into crypto. — Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) Oil Market & Geopolitics (05:39) Macro's Role In Crypto Markets (08:41) Fundamental View of Bitcoin & Crypto (14:00) Bitcoin & Interest Rates (21:18) The Forward Guidance Regime (25:00) Economic Growth vs Stimulus (27:57) Regulatory Uncertainty Slowing Crypto (30:49) Economic Uncertainty (33:57) Unaffordability & Wealth Disparity (36:37) The Fed's Credibility (40:19) Economic Bifurcation (45:10) History of Asset Bubbles (46:48) Generational Wealth (51:02) Price Predictions — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    54 min

  6. 5 OKT.

    Stellar Jobs Report Sends Recession Odds Spiraling | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss the latest bullish jobs report, the impact of globally-coordinated easing, and the Middle East's impact on markets. We also delve into the recent SOFR explosion, election pricing in markets, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S24tXpteiZg1jilfU8aXk0L_NtXFLXVg/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:34) Non-Farm Payrolls (10:59) Fixed Income & High Yield (12:43) Global Coordinated Easing Cycle (16:20) US Dollar & US Exceptionalism (18:52) Global Easing Driving Growth & Liquidity (22:08) The Big Picture (26:32) Permissionless Ad (27:11) Oil, Gold, & the Middle East (31:37) Global Collateral Shift (33:19) Middle East Tail Risk (36:23) SOFR Explosion & QT (42:09) Simplifying Macro Trading (45:25) Economic Politics (48:28) Crypto Markets (50:31) Election Pricing in Markets (55:56) Permissionless Next Week — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    57 min

  7. 2 OKT.

    Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman

    In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Check out Harley’s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:54 Implied Forward Rates 03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession 07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance 11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields 13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity 18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread 23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate 26:11 The Fed's Master Plan 29:43 Permissionless Ad 30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation? 35:19 Labor Market & Immigration 38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced? 40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt 42:03 Market Opportunities 44:33 Equities & Rates 47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

    50 min

  8. 27 SEP.

    China's Liquidity Impulse, A Turning Point For Markets | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss China’s economic stimulus, the resilience of the labor market, and the GDP/GDI revisions. We also delve into global liquidity & equity multiples, things to actually worry about in the future, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13soXH2F5Zv1f3SvJO6Oj5D7d1gtdBFEJ/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction   (01:14) China & Economic Stimulus   (08:11) The World is Changing   (12:26) Oil Market   (15:45) Unpacking the Labor Market   (23:27) Permissionless Ad   (24:04) Interview Continues   (25:15) Central Bank Politics   (27:16) GDP & GDI   (32:26) Global Liquidity & Equity Multiples   (38:26) Things to be Worried About   (45:40) Main Takeaways — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    47 min
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Info

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Informatie

  • Maker
    Blockworks
  • Jaren actief
    2021 - 2024
  • Afleveringen
    429
  • Copyright
    © 384141 Blockworks 2021
  • Website van aflevering
    Forward Guidance

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