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The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Forward Guidance Blockworks

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    • 5,0 • 4 beoordelingen

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle

    China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis
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    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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    Recent writings by Michael Pettis:
    “Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en
    “Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/
    “Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Introduction
    (01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model
    (09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard
    (17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China
    (20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s
    (24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.)
    (28:06) VanEck Ad
    (28:46) Interview Continues
    (36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists
    (49:58) Permissionless Ad
    (50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"?
    (57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort"
    (01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit
    (01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances
    (01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World
    (01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control)
    (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?
    (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out
    (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 u. 31 min.
    Peter Boockvar on an Overheated Stock Market, China’s Green Shoots, and the Private Credit Bezzle

    Peter Boockvar on an Overheated Stock Market, China’s Green Shoots, and the Private Credit Bezzle

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    Follow Peter Boockvar on Twitter https://twitter.com/pboockvar
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Introduction
    (00:48) Peter's Economic Worries: That Lower-End Consumers Are Already In A Recession
    (12:26) VanEck Ad
    (13:06) Interview Continues
    (21:12) Is The AI Narrative That's Fueling The Stock Market Rally Real?
    (48:07) Japan
    (54:36) China
    (01:09:19) 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
    (01:11:42) Is The Boom In Private Credit & Private Equity Going To End Badly?
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 u. 25 min.
    Airline Revenues Are Soaring. Their Profits Are Not | Planes And Trains Expert Jay Shabat on Depressed Railroad Volumes And Global Air Traffic

    Airline Revenues Are Soaring. Their Profits Are Not | Planes And Trains Expert Jay Shabat on Depressed Railroad Volumes And Global Air Traffic

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    Skift Airline Weekly https://airlineweekly.skift.com/
    Jay Shabat’s Railroad Weekly https://railroadweekly.substack.com/
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
    __

    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Introduction
    (01:10) Railroads
    (19:50) VanEck Ad
    (20:30) Airlines

    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 u. 30 min.
    Why The Chinese Real Estate Downturn Won’t Sink The Chinese Economy | Ben Harburg

    Why The Chinese Real Estate Downturn Won’t Sink The Chinese Economy | Ben Harburg

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Introduction
    (01:18) Has The Bearish Narrative On China's Collapse Gone Too Far?
    (05:50) Collapse Of Evergrande Was NOT A "Lehman Moment," Argues Harburg
    (10:21) Current State of Chinese Real Estate Market
    (15:56) Is Economic Stimulus From The Chinese Government On Its Way?
    (19:28) Are Chinese Policymakers Worried About Deflation?
    (21:16) Western Goods Are Being "Slaughtered" By Chinese Consumption of Domestically-Produced Goods
    (24:35) VanEck Ad
    (25:29) Spending Is "Definitely Weak" As "People Are Losing Their Jobs"
    (26:42) Not In DNA of Chinese Government To Enact a "Major Stimulus Package"
    (28:59) India Is A "Mirage" Where Corruption Is Actually Higher Than In China, Argues Harburg
    (36:46) Delisting of DiDi Was "Justified" But The Chinese Government Often Does Not Provide Sufficient Detail On Rationale Behind Policies
    (41:01) The Chinese Labor Market
    (43:09) Permissionless Ad
    (44:15) The Chinese Stock Market
    (49:28) Chinese Electric Vehicles
    (54:19) Tariffs Against China: Why Chinese Leaders Would Prefer Trump Over Biden
    (01:00:49) Does Beijing Look Fondly Upon Bank Credit Being Directed Away From Real Estate And Into Consumer Lending?
    (01:06:21) Private Markets In China Are "Very Challenged"
    (01:12:17) China's Central Bank (The People's Bank of China)
    (01:14:11) Chinese Yuan
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 u. 23 min.
    BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans

    BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Introduction
    (00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years
    (05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022
    (19:36) VanEck Ad
    (20:17) What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism?
    (26:26) Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy?
    (39:56) Permissionless III Ad
    (40:54) AI And Labor Productivity
    (54:04) How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats
    (01:00:52) What Are The False Signals Of 2024?
    (01:06:25) Geopolitical Risks
    (01:13:10) U.S. / China Tensions
    (01:17:22) Black Swan: Solar Flare
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 u. 18 min.
    “Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later

    “Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://x.com/RenMacLLC?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
    Follow RenMac website: https://t.co/VJIDWiWMkc
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Introduction
    (00:56) Is There An "Economic Accident" Brewing?
    (10:26) Why Neil Thinks The Fed Should Cut Before The Election
    (21:54) VanEck Ad
    (22:36) Odds Of A Recession
    (29:33) Is The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data From Establishment Survey Overstating How Rosy U.S. Job Market Is?
    (48:25) Dutta Prefers Bonds Over Stocks
    (58:42) The Fiscal Deficit In 2025 And Beyond

    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 u. 1 min.

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