Forward Guidance Jack Farley | Blockworks

Nick Halaris, President of real estate investment firm Metros Capital, joins Jack to share insight on the challenges commercial real estate faces after a surge in interest rates and the fall of two U.S. banks.

The phrase “commercial real estate” is a catch-all terms that refers to offices, apartment buildings (“multi-family”), retail, and industrial spaces. Unlike residential real estate, which is typically financed with long-term fixed-rate mortgages, a lot of commercial real estate was financed with floating rate debt, which means that as interest rates rose last year, the interest expense of some commercial real estate developers rose dramatically. Halaris argues that the turmoil in the banking system will likely induce banks to tighten their lending, which would inflict further hardship onto commercial real estate, much of which is financed via smaller regional banks. 

Filmed on Tuesday, March 28, 2023.
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Nick Halaris website: https://nickhalaris.com/
Profit+ Subscribe Link: https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/
Nick Halaris on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NickHalaris
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro
(00:25) What Is Commercial Real Estate?
(03:20) Interest Rates Have A Huge Impact on Real Estate Valuations
(11:48) "Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble"
(16:58) Delinquency Rates Are Rising...
(19:13) Real Estate Is No Longer An Inflation Hedge
(22:45) Permissionless Ad
(23:48) Real Estate "Cap Rates" And Why They Are So Often Misunderstood
(26:53) "Accounting Games" In Real Estate
(35:02) How Bank Turmoil Will Impact Real Estate
(38:42) The End Game For Real Estate
(44:30) "it's Really Hard To Get A Loan"
(46:37) Prices Will Go Down More
(48:36) Blockworks Research Ad
(49:36) Silver Lining: Rates Could Go Down
(53:33) Retail Real Estate (Shopping Malls, etc.)
(54:39) The Housing Market Will Probably Remain Strong
(59:29) Private Equity's Investment Into Housing
(01:01:51) Nick Halaris' Newsletter, Profit Plus
(01:04:25) Closing Thoughts On Rising Interest Rates
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, “Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order.” 

Tucker tells Jack Farley that China’s growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S.’ role as global hegemon, and he details ways to reinvigorate international cooperation during the current period of geopolitical strife. Tucker shares his views on the recent turmoil in the banking system, weighing on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the acute need for bank resolution that can maintain financial stability while winding down ailing banks. Tucker and Farley also discuss concepts such as the Triffin Dilemma, the offshore (“Eurodollar”) dollar system, and central banks’ role as lenders of last resort. 
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“Global Discord” from Princeton Press: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229317/global-discord
Global Discord on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Global-Discord-Values-Power-Fractured/dp/0691229317
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About Paul Tucker: http://paultucker.me/resources/
About Tucker’s work at The Harvard Kennedy School: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/fellows/research-fellows#sir_paul_tucker
More about today’s guest:
For over thirty years, Sir Paul Tucker was a central banker, and a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2002. He was Deputy Governor from 2009 to late 2013, including serving on the Financial Policy Committee (vice chair) and Prudential Regulatory Authority Board (vice chair). He was knighted by Britain in 2014 for his services to central banking. Internationally, he was a member of the steering committee of the G20 Financial Stability Board, and chaired its Committee on the Resolution of Cross-Border Banks to solve “too big to fail”. Tucker was a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and was chair of the Basel Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems from April 2012. After leaving central banking, Tucker was chair of the Systemic Risk Council from December 2015 to August 2021. He now writes at the intersection of political economy and political philosophy as research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In addition to “Global Discord,” Tucker is also the author of “ Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State” (2018).
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:55) The Rise Of China Will Have Immense Consequences On A Global Scale
(04:44) Shortcomings of Trade Policy and Enforcement
(10:41) Downsides of U.S.' Trade Deficit
(20:18) The Bretton Woods Regime
(21:59) The Triffin Dilemma
(26:32) The Eurodollar System
(27:31) The Fed's Swap Lines In 2008
(28:49) Importance of Multi-Disciplinary Understanding For Policymakers
(31:17) The Debt Ceiling
(21:27) Thucydides' Trap
(25:57) The Contest Between China and The U.S. Is "Everywhere"
(39:26) Document 9 of The Chinese Communist Party
(45:29) Inflation
(49:37) Regional Bank Failure In The U.S.
(55:43) The Takeover Of Credit Suisse By UBS
(01:02:49) Defining A "Bailout" As A Use Of Taxpayer Money
(01:07:09) Bagehot's Dictum
(01:15:31) Credit Suisse Contingent Convertible ("CoCo") Bonds
(01:17:55) Tying Geopolitical And Banking Together
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack interviews Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James Financial, and Joseph Wang, author at https://fedguy.com/, for a conversation on how the recent banking turmoil has muddled the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting mission. Woodward, a banking veteran with a rare understanding of the regional banks’ investment portfolio, gives a glimpse into the interest-rate exposure (“duration”) of the mid-sized and community bank community that is unavailable by just looking at public filings.  

Woodward argues that Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) fall was not due to its interest rate risk management and that the Federal Reserve is to blame. Wang vehemently (but very politely) disagrees and what ensues is a masterclass on the most salient issues facing the U.S. banking industry. Filmed on Thursday, March 23, 2023, a day after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
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Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:59) Joseph's Take On March Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC)
(04:59) Is The Fed To Blame For The Fall Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)?
(12:35) Available-For-Sale (AFS) vs. Held-To-Maturity (HTM) Accounting Treatment
(26:16) Public.com Ad
(27:20) Was Silicon Valley Bank's Lack of Interest Rate Hedges Negligent?
(34:30) There's No Way To Hedge Perfectly"
(41:10) Uninsured Deposit Base As A New Vulnerability For U.S. Banks
(53:01) The Psychological Aspect of Bank Runs
(57:07) Bernanke on The Great Depression: Bad Visuals Are Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
(01:00:06) Should The FDIC Deposit Guarantee Be Raised?
(01:02:39) Will Bank Turmoil Cause Banks To Curb Lending?
(01:06:41) How Many More Times Will The Fed Hike (If At All)?
(01:08:39) BTFP is NOT Quantitative Easing, Says Joseph Wang
(01:10:13) Central Banking 101
(01:14:22) Closing Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in!
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
____
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
____
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Does the ongoing turmoil in the banking world constitute a “Minksy moment”? Daniel Neilson, assistant professor of monetary economic at Bard College at Simon’s Rock and author of “Minsky” (2019), argues yes. Neilson explores the potential of contagion within the banking world, and he makes the case that the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as well as the FDIC backstop might make this banking crisis short-lived. Neilson shares with Jack Farley several in-depth charts on the Fed’s balance sheet that might indicate a turning point and the pair share their views on the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 22, 2023.

Filmed the afternoon of March 21, 2023.
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Daniel Neilson’s article on Silicon Valley Bank: https://www.soonparted.co/p/silicon-valley-bank
Daniel Neilson’s article on Fed’s BTFP and other refinancing channels: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-ii
Daniel Neilson’s chart pack on the SVB Panic: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-iii
Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(05:08) "This Is A Minksy Moment"
(18:04) The Takeover of Credit Suisse
(28:30) Permissionless
(29:33) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) vs. The Fed's Discount Window
(39:32) Can The Banking Panic Be Stopped In Its Tracks?
(43:33) Blockworks Research
(44:37) First Republic Bank ($FRC) and Bank Profitability
(49:32) The Fed Readies Its Dollar Swap Lines
(55:43) The Federal Reserve's New Hiking Path
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Marc Cohodes, accomplished short-seller and financial bloodhound, is on the ultimate hot-streak. Over the past six months, he has been the sternest critic of FTX, Silvergate, and Signature Bank, all of which either have ceased operations as a corporate entity or will do so shortly. He shares what led him to call out FTX in the summer of 2022 (months before its bankruptcy in the fall) and why he shorted the stocks of Silvergate ($SI) and Signature Bank ($SBNY), which have both collapsed in value (a share of Silvergate trades at less than two dollars and shares of Signature Bank no longer trade after it was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on March 12). 

Cohodes also explains the immense difficulties that short-sellers frequently face, and he shares his opinion on turmoil swirling around the U.S. regional banking system. Over the course of this interview, Cohodes makes several allegations which are solely his own opinion. Filmed the afternoon of March 20, 2023.
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____
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
____
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
____
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
____
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
____
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(14:59) Silvergate and Signature Bank as "Publicly-Traded Crime Scenes"
(23:47) Silicon Valley Bank
(31:30) Is This Similar to 2008? (Answer: Not Really)
(58:43) What Marc Is Working On Now
(01:04:18) Blockworks Research
(01:05:18) The Dangerous Life Of A Professional Short-Seller
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.