Portfolio Intelligence John Hancock Investment Management

An initial round of interest-rate cuts no longer appears to be imminent, given recently uneven inflation data and robust jobs growth that have prompted the U.S. Federal Reserve to put a dovish policy shift on hold. What does this delayed timeline mean for equities and fixed income heading into earnings season?

Emily R. Roland, CIMA, and Matthew D. Miskin, CFA, co-chief investment strategists at John Hancock Investment Management, join the podcast and host John Bryson to discuss the need for a patient approach to investing and a focus on fundamentals, given a recent market rally that’s pushed equity valuations higher. Emily and Matt explore monetary policy, the outlook for stocks and bonds, and pockets of opportunity that they’re seeing in mid-cap equities and industrial stocks tied to economic growth in Midwestern states. With an election coming up in November, the strategists also discuss the importance of keeping politics out of portfolios.

Q1 2024 saw U.S. equities stage an impressive rally, supported by the prospect of upcoming interest-rate cuts. The quarter also saw some renewed enthusiasm toward the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio, which had been written off by some investors at one point. But will this supportive environment continue? Podcast host John P. Bryson, head of investment consulting and education savings at John Hancock Investment Management, posed that question to Michael R. Scanlon, CFA, and portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management.

The U.S. equity market continued to rally in early 2024, even as the latest inflation data and the economy’s resilience prompted the U.S. Federal Reserve to dampen expectations for a full-fledged pivot to an aggressive rate-cutting stance through year end. What’s an investor to do in this highly uncertain environment?

Matthew D. Miskin, CFA, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, joins the podcast to assess where the most attractive equity opportunities lie while also gauging current risks. Matt explains why he continues to see strong potential in semiconductor companies and other technology stocks despite their lofty valuations. He also warns about the risks for equity investors should the flow of economic data cause the Fed to once again embrace a hawkish stance on rates. Finally, Matt assesses the latest quarterly earnings season, cost-cutting initiatives that may enhance profit margins but could hurt long-term growth, and the challenges that advisors and investors face in putting cash to work in today’s markets.

Amid a shifting interest-rate outlook and inflation picture, the U.S. fixed-income market saw a swift reversal in 2023 as bond yields spiked through most of the year before sinking beginning in late October. With that recent volatility fresh in mind, we explore the outlook for the rest of 2024 with Jeffrey N. Given, CFA, senior portfolio manager and co-head of U.S. core and core-plus fixed income at Manulife Investment Management. Jeff joins podcast host John Bryson to assess current opportunities for shifting cash allocations into fixed income. Jeff sees plenty of factors that he believes are likely to be supportive of bond prices going forward, particularly in market segments such as U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities and corporate investment-grade credit.

As market expectations of interest-rate cuts solidifies, the investment case for fixed-income asset is likely already well telegraphed. The story for equities, however, could be slightly more complex. Might U.S. stocks extend their 2023 winning streak into the new year as the lagged effects of monetary tightening make their way into the real economy? Will current valuations—and, crucially, earnings expectations—hold up as economic growth slows? Podcast host John P. Bryson, head of investment consulting and education savings at John Hancock Investment Management, caught up with Emily Roland and Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategists at John Hancock Investment Management to get a clearer sense of where stock prices and corporate earnings could be headed. He also asked them to share their views on where investors might find opportunities.

The month of November no doubt brought a fair amount of relief to investors who had been, up to that point, operating under a huge cloud of uncertainty. News that inflation had eased more than expected in October strengthened the case for a pause in interest-rate hikes and sparked a rally in the stock market. While the shift in investor sentiment is encouraging, is it likely to last? Podcast host John P. Bryson, head of investment consulting and education savings at John Hancock Investment Management, posed that question to Emily Roland and Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategists at John Hancock Investment Management. He also asked them if the recent pullback in inflationary pressures had laid the foundation for rate cuts next year and how advisors should be approaching portfolio positioning in the current environment.