267 episodes

Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.

Notes on the Week Ahead Dr. David Kelly

    • Business
    • 4.4 • 174 Ratings

Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.

    Is 4.1% Unemployment a Recession Warning?

    Is 4.1% Unemployment a Recession Warning?

    Despite a slightly higher-than-expected payroll job gain, the June employment report was on the soft side, with downward revisions to payroll gains from prior months, a drop in temporary employment and only modest gains in wages.  However, the weakest aspect of the report was the unemployment rate, which edged up from 4.0% to 4.1%.  This, in itself, wouldn’t be particularly notable were it not for the fact that the unemployment rate has now risen steadily over the past 14 months from a 54-year low of 3.4% set in April of last year. 

    • 9 min
    Expansion on Broadway

    Expansion on Broadway

    The play, entitled “Steadily She Slows”, has, from a dramatic perspective, turned out to be a dud.
    It started with such a promising prologue of pandemic, recession, recovery, political upheaval, war and inflation. However, it has since settled into a drawn-out, repetitious script, wherein the lead actor, consumption, hogs the center stage and the supporting cast, in the form of investment spending, government spending and trade, has very little impact on the plot. The promoters, on cable news shows and social media feeds, do their very best to gin up public interest by prophesying catastrophic collapse into recession or reignited and blazing inflation. But still the play drones on, unloved by all, except, of course, the investors, who are profiting handsomely from its extended run.

    • 7 min
    Risks and Exposure

    Risks and Exposure

    As a young lad growing up in South Dublin, I received certain geography lessons on where I could, or could not, safely roam.  In particular, I was warned not to stray north of O’Connell Street.  I remember debating my mother on the issue, once when I wanted to go to a movie at a theatre near Parnell Square.  I can’t remember exactly what I said, but I probably claimed that bad things didn’t happen on the North Side quite as frequently as South Side mothers thought they did.  But my mother held her ground on this occasion…someone might or might not get beaten up in Parnell Square that afternoon.  But if her son wasn’t there, it wouldn’t be him.
    After almost every speech, someone asks me about risks – what keeps me up at night.  And today, with a soft-landing economy and the stock market near record highs, it does seem like a good time to review risks.  But it’s important to recognize the most obvious point about market risk.  The risk to you, as an investor, isn’t simply the danger of some negative event – it is the product of the probability of that event and your exposure to it.  How you are positioned says a great deal about how worried you should be about any risk. 

    • 10 min
    The Wide and Foggy Road

    The Wide and Foggy Road

    Every three months, the 19 members of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, of FOMC for short, aided, no doubt, by an army of econometric minions, work up new forecasts for key economic variables and their assessment of appropriate monetary policy.  In recent days, as they have huddled in their offices engaged on this task, they’ve had much to be thankful for.  The economic roller coaster triggered by the pandemic and the policy response, which manifested itself in wild swings in output, unemployment and inflation, has subsided.  Moreover, the very narrow road by which they thought inflation could be subdued without triggering a recession, turned out to be not so narrow after all.  The U.S. economy has maintained solid economic growth and a very tight labor market even as inflation has fallen towards their 2% objective.
     

    • 8 min
    The Normalization of an Abnormal Job Market

    The Normalization of an Abnormal Job Market

    For centuries, economists have extolled the almost magical properties of competitive markets.  In the 1770s, Adam Smith wrote about an “invisible hand” by which individuals end up promoting the common good even though they only ever intended to do themselves a bit of good.  In the 1970s, Milton Friedman spoke passionately of the virtues of a free-enterprise system in boosting innovation and productive activity.  Such voices are quieter now and much of modern economic commentary is devoted to how to fix an economy when markets fail or how governments and central banks should seek to manipulate it.  However, the U.S. economy in the wake of the pandemic should serve as a reminder of the power of simple economics.  No matter how abnormal the starting point, an economy will, if sufficiently neglected by the government, tend towards balanced growth.

    • 9 min
    The Causes and Consequences of Gloom and Doom

    The Causes and Consequences of Gloom and Doom

    One of the most common plotlines in all of literature is when a protagonist, overestimating the gravity of a situation, responds with a series of unfortunate decisions. Perhaps the classic example of this is Romeo, not appreciating the difference between a sleeping Juliet and a dead Juliet, but the pattern has played out in innumerable stories.
    When it comes to the state of the economy, it seems clear that Americans are harboring too negative a view. In the short run, this misapprehension may not lead to disaster. However, it could still imperil investment returns if it leads to political decisions that make a relatively healthy economy sick.

    • 9 min

Customer Reviews

4.4 out of 5
174 Ratings

174 Ratings

Oaklandz ,

Excellent weekly review

I have been listening carefully to Dr Kelly since 2005. At that time, he accurately predicted the Great Recession while working at Putnam Investments. He covers many facets of the economy that give us as accurate outlook as possible for the investing environment.

welsonsun ,

Voice is too weak!

I like the content, but the volume is just too low. Can you use a proper mic?

amnazrz ,

Good content, but unlistenable !

Host reads a script, probably more suited to be sent by email, as fast has he can. A slower more articulate version would be fantastic.

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