NAB Morning Call Phil Dobbie

Friday 3rd May 2024
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They dominated the global share market last year and many have enjoyed tremendous growth so far this year, with NVIDIA as the clear outperformer. Whilst there’s a been a bit of an adjustment lately, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies in Connecticut, says there’s still plenty of momentum and their own analysis points to prices pushing higher. Katie’s approach is to build a portfolio based on technicals. “I do read macro strategists work”, she says in this weekend’s podcast, ”but it won’t drive our decision making process”. In other words, any macro development will be reflected in the indicators they follow at some point. And those technicals are painting a positive picture for most of the big tech stocks right now. 

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Friday 3rd May 2024
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US productivity has slipped quite markedly in Q1, that’s pushed up labour costs – is that something to worry about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says markets are still responding to yesterday’s dovish slant from the Fed. Non-farm payrolls will be watched keenly tonight, along with US Services PMI. Locally  Australia’s home loans data is out today. Phil and Gavin also talk through revisions to the OECD’s growth forecasts for the US, Australia, Europe and the UK. 


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Thursday 2nd May 2024
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The Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it didn’t really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal rate, the impact of the election and the possibility of a rate hike. Jerome Powell gave a cautious ‘no’ to the rate hike. Listen in for the latest from the Fed and the latest data, including JOLTS from last night and Australia’s trade data today.

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Wednesday 1st May 2024
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A month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NAB’s Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Jerome Powell would have to be uber hawkish to pish rates any higher says Skye, but we’ll know this time tomorrow. 

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Tuesday 30th April 2024
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German inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by intervention, or at least the anticipation of it? Australia’s retail numbers will be the focus locally today.  

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Monday 29th April 2024
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The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump, if he were to become President again, might challenge the independence of the central bank. There was a strong move down in the Yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan did little to support the currency and there’s a question as to whether they will lift rates at all this year. With inflation so low, do they need to?

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