15 min
Alabama Turfgrass Association – A Contrarian’s Guide to Autonomous Turfgrass Robotic Technology The Turf Zone Podcast
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- Business
ATA TURF TIMES: J. Scott McElroy, PhD – Professor, Department of Crop, Soil, and Environmental Sciences Auburn University
As a scientist, I hesitate to make predictions such as those a fortune teller might reveal. I wince when I hear people speaking with absolute certainty that this or that will happen in the future. That some team will win, some politician will lose, or that some event will occur is often pure speculation. Absolute predictions are nonsensical, and an affront to probabilistic thinking. To think probabilistically is to think in terms of the percentage of probability that something will occur. This is the foundation of good science.
Having said that, it is highly probable that in the next 10 years autonomous technology will gain a significant portion of the professional and consumer market in the United States. I base this prediction on four pieces of evidence:
1. Robotic technology has already captured a significant portion of the technology in Europe.
2. All major brands that market traditional mowing technology or mowing equipment are developing robotic technology.
3. At one count there were over 40 additional startups and companies developing all manner of robotic technology, including mowers, painters, and sprayers.
4. The labor shortage will be sustained into the foreseeable future and could potentially increase (https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-still-has-a-worker-shortage-d0c65166).
But here I am addressing the “Contrarian’s Guide to Turfgrass Robotic Technology.” To the robotic contrarian, any positive arguments I present regarding this technology will likely fall on deaf ears. To the contrarian, only seeing is believing. Once my prediction has come true, the contrarian will adopt the technology as self-evident. Don’t get me wrong. Skepticism is a good thing. However, a complete understanding and realistic expectation of what robotic technology can do and where the technology is going is necessary to the healthy skeptic. I want to convince the contrarian that instead of waiting for the technology to be tested by fellow industry partners, they should begin testing and evaluating it themselves. With that in mind, I present this article to the contrarian on fundamentals of robotic technology today.
“The Technology is Just Not There Yet.”
This is the contrarian’s favorite phrase. In frustration I respond, “Where is There?” or even “What is There?”. If the technology has not arrived at the point where it can be adopted, what are its current limitations?
What irks me so much about this critique is the underlying assumptions about imagined technological characteristics that may not even be possible. The contrarian’s perception of automation is that the technology can be easily set up with little or no planning or understanding of the technology. That it may be deployed for use with little, or no, oversight. The phrase, “The Technology is Just Not There Yet,” is normally rooted in some technological advancement in artificial intelligence, or machine learning, that the contrarian has developed based on their perception of technological development, or maybe even a touch of science fiction.
My response is “The technology is what the technology is.” 2022 might as well have been ten years ago when it comes to robotic and autonomous technology in the United States. 2023 saw an incredible number of major advances. These include allowance for extended range connection to 4G and network RTK systems; daisy chaining of reference station signals for greater lengths; creation of virtual zones that can vary in direction, speed, and height of cut; and mobile deployment across multiple sites. The technology launched in 2023 will be the basis of robotic technology for the next five to ten years.
To the contrarian, if you were talking about 2022, I agree.
ATA TURF TIMES: J. Scott McElroy, PhD – Professor, Department of Crop, Soil, and Environmental Sciences Auburn University
As a scientist, I hesitate to make predictions such as those a fortune teller might reveal. I wince when I hear people speaking with absolute certainty that this or that will happen in the future. That some team will win, some politician will lose, or that some event will occur is often pure speculation. Absolute predictions are nonsensical, and an affront to probabilistic thinking. To think probabilistically is to think in terms of the percentage of probability that something will occur. This is the foundation of good science.
Having said that, it is highly probable that in the next 10 years autonomous technology will gain a significant portion of the professional and consumer market in the United States. I base this prediction on four pieces of evidence:
1. Robotic technology has already captured a significant portion of the technology in Europe.
2. All major brands that market traditional mowing technology or mowing equipment are developing robotic technology.
3. At one count there were over 40 additional startups and companies developing all manner of robotic technology, including mowers, painters, and sprayers.
4. The labor shortage will be sustained into the foreseeable future and could potentially increase (https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-still-has-a-worker-shortage-d0c65166).
But here I am addressing the “Contrarian’s Guide to Turfgrass Robotic Technology.” To the robotic contrarian, any positive arguments I present regarding this technology will likely fall on deaf ears. To the contrarian, only seeing is believing. Once my prediction has come true, the contrarian will adopt the technology as self-evident. Don’t get me wrong. Skepticism is a good thing. However, a complete understanding and realistic expectation of what robotic technology can do and where the technology is going is necessary to the healthy skeptic. I want to convince the contrarian that instead of waiting for the technology to be tested by fellow industry partners, they should begin testing and evaluating it themselves. With that in mind, I present this article to the contrarian on fundamentals of robotic technology today.
“The Technology is Just Not There Yet.”
This is the contrarian’s favorite phrase. In frustration I respond, “Where is There?” or even “What is There?”. If the technology has not arrived at the point where it can be adopted, what are its current limitations?
What irks me so much about this critique is the underlying assumptions about imagined technological characteristics that may not even be possible. The contrarian’s perception of automation is that the technology can be easily set up with little or no planning or understanding of the technology. That it may be deployed for use with little, or no, oversight. The phrase, “The Technology is Just Not There Yet,” is normally rooted in some technological advancement in artificial intelligence, or machine learning, that the contrarian has developed based on their perception of technological development, or maybe even a touch of science fiction.
My response is “The technology is what the technology is.” 2022 might as well have been ten years ago when it comes to robotic and autonomous technology in the United States. 2023 saw an incredible number of major advances. These include allowance for extended range connection to 4G and network RTK systems; daisy chaining of reference station signals for greater lengths; creation of virtual zones that can vary in direction, speed, and height of cut; and mobile deployment across multiple sites. The technology launched in 2023 will be the basis of robotic technology for the next five to ten years.
To the contrarian, if you were talking about 2022, I agree.
15 min