Beyond the Mekong The Diplomat

Greening says anti-regime forces could capture the Irrawaddy Basin and eventually declare victory over the junta.Paul Greening has worked as a political analyst and a specialist consultant with civil society organizations covering Myanmar since the military ousted an elected government in early 2021, pushing the country into a bitter civil war.

He says unprecedented battlefield success by anti-regime forces during their latest dry season offensive has turned the war decisively against the junta, which can no longer be won by its chief Min Aung Hlaing and his ruling generals.

But the conflict is still far from over and peace talks with the military are no longer wanted given past attempts by ASEAN and others to find a peaceful solution, which all but ignored the National Unity Government (NUG) and the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) – and failed.

At best, Greening says, the armed wing of the NUG, the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), and the EAOs might be in a position to force an end to the junta’s reign within a year by encircling and taking the Irrawaddy basin, which includes the cities of Yangon, Naypyidaw, and Mandalay.

Despite opinions to the contrary, he says that means the fighting will continue throughout the coming monsoon.

However, relationships between more than 20 EAOs, their political allegiances, the PDFs, and the NUG are complicated, lacking a central command structure while their objectives differ, he told The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt in Mae Sot on the Thai/Myanmar border.

The NUG wants a return to the pre-coup era and the reinstatement of the government that was shoved out by the barrel of gun. But EAOs have made it clear their fight is for the independence of their own respective states and that this does not fit with the NUG’s agenda.

Greening, who has many years of experience working for various United Nations agencies, international and local NGOs, is hopeful that a loose confederation of independent states will eventually emerge out of Myanmar from the grassroots.

But in the meantime, he says the harrowing bombing campaigns by the armed wing of the military and heavy fighting, particularly in the west of the country, is expected to continue.

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The veteran editor speaks about the media's changing role and declining influence in both Australia and Southeast Asia.The media industry has changed enormously since David Armstrong began his career as a junior reporter for The Australian newspaper in Sydney in 1969, and not for the better. Superficiality and a “gotcha” mentality by too many journalists, he says, has lowered the bar in Australia.

But he also says there are bright spots in Southeast Asia among newspapers that have a strong regional coverage and a good mix between print and online editions.

In Australia. Armstrong was editor of The Australian and The Canberra Times newspapers and The Bulletin magazine, working directly with media magnates Rupert Murdoch, Kerry Packer and Kerry Stokes before moving to Hong Kong in 1993 as editor of the South China Morning Post.

He was managing director of The Bangkok Post and throughout, he worked the sensitive line between publishers and journalists and ensured profits while covering the biggest stories over half a century ranging from the death of Princess Diana to the 9/11 attacks in the United States.

At the Myanmar Times, he was an editorial consultant and active in the transition-to-democracy period – before the 2021 coup and the civil war. Armstrong also served on several boards and was chairman of the Post Media Ltd, which recently closed its , the Phnom Penh Post.

In Bangkok, he spoke with The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt about the role of newspapers and their impact – or lack of – on public thinking. That includes election wins and losses by Australian prime ministers Gough Whitlam, Malcolm Fraser and Malcolm Turnbull.

Armstrong is currently the chairman of UCA News and fortnightly column about Asia media for Pearls and Irritations, a public policy journal published by John Menadue.

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How to save thousands of lives by preventing STDs.Mechai Viravaidya has spent the last 50 years at the helm of family planning in Thailand, and has been credited with saving countless lives through his safe sex campaigns, which rose to the fore when the HIV/AIDS virus took hold in 1981.

From his flagship restaurant Cabbages and Condoms in Bangkok, Mechai spoke with The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt about fulfilling his social obligations, inherited from his Thai father and Scottish mother, both medical doctors, who emphasized the importance of giving back.

Born in 1941, he studied at the University of Melbourne and returned to Thailand where he became a government minister, traveled the country, and realized the potential devastating impact of a sharply rising birth rate and the difficulties faced by his nation’s mothers.

He was also confronted by political leaders who believed Thailand could become a global superpower if it had a large enough population and they were just not interested in reducing the country’s population rate.

Mechai persisted and established the non-profit Population and Community Development Association which was largely funded through Cabbages and Condoms. The average number of children in Thai families fell from seven to 1.5.

In Thailand, Mechai has affectionately been known as “Mr. Condom” and condoms are often referred to as “mechais” – nicknames he wears with a sense of humor while noting condoms are no more offensive than an orange or a tennis ball.

These days Mechai is focused on his rural Bamboo Schools program and on elderly Thais, who lack family support, through his country’s extensive network of 40,000 temples where housing has been built on vacant land, health care is provided and food grown and distributed.