Capital Economics Weekly Briefing Capital Economics

The European Central Bank is likely to become the first major advanced economy central bank to cut rates since the end of the pandemic when it meets this Thursday – easing policy ahead of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. 
It’s a move that’s been well flagged by ECB officials, but it’s also one that they probably wouldn’t have signalled quite so strongly given what the latest inflation data show. 
In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Europe economists Andrew Kenningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds preview a key moment in the global economy’s post-pandemic inflation-interest rate cycle. 
They explain the rationale for this Thursday’s likely move and why the path ahead for easing is less assured.  Andrew and Jack also put this ECB decision in its international context, exploring the risks around lowering European rates even as the Fed stands pat. 

How important are elections for the trajectory of economies? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics explains why the just-announced general election may not be hugely consequential for the UK economy, but also why South Africa’s vote this coming Wednesday could prove momentous. 
In the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews key inflation data for the US and euro-zone, discusses the latest on the timing of rate cuts and talks about whether an investment frenzy in artificial intelligence is translating into productivity benefits.
EM Economists David Omojomolo and Jason Tuvey are also on the show, exploring possible outcomes for South African party politics and their economic implications as the sun sets on thirty years of ANC dominance. 
Plus, an exclusive clip from our UK election briefing outlines some of the key issues around the July 4 vote, including the fiscal constraints that await the winner, structural reforms and this election’s potential long-term economic impact. 

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and explains what to expect from the coming week’s UK CPI release.
Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is also on the show, talking to David Wilder about this month’s recovery in US equities, our no longer out-of-consensus 2024 and 2025 forecasts and what to look for before the market bubble finally bursts. 
And there’s more on those China tariffs, with an exclusive clip from our client briefing about how Europe could respond to Chinese EV imports and whether higher US tariffs will lead to a further reordering of global trade flows.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the latest signals from the Bank of England and that Q1 UK GDP report mean in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. He also previews the coming week’s US inflation data, tells David Wilder why EM monetary easing will need to slow and puts the US current account deficit in context. 
Also on the show, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks to Leah Fahy from our China team about what his analysis of Chinese auto production and exports says about what’s been missing from the growing global row about Chinese industrial overcapacity.
And, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing about global inflation, the team talk services inflation and signs of labour market softening on both sides of the Atlantic. 

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks a tumultuous week that ended on a high. April's soft payrolls report may have given the market much-needed evidence that US disinflationary forces are gathering, but will that sway the Fed? And what can investors expect from the Bank of England this coming week?
 
Neil also frames Xi Jinping’s trip to Europe against a backdrop of rising global trade tensions and previews our upcoming ‘Spotlight’ project, which will answer the question of whether US economic and financial market dominance will continue. 
Plus, Abhijit Surya from our ANZ team lays out our case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday and, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing, our Commodities team discuss Saudi and Russian oil production in the run-up to the US election and why the copper price rally looks overdone.

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews the coming week’s Fed meeting, tackles market talk that the next move on the US policy rate could be up, addresses an intriguing report about Fed independence and decries the absence of a grown-up conversation around fiscal commitments. 
Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, is also on the show to talk about what he picked up about the true state of the Chinese economy during a visit to Beijing and Shanghai. 
Plus, with all eyes on the dollar, an exclusive clip from our online Drop-In briefing on the risks to emerging market economies from a stronger-for-longer greenback.