Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next move to China's slowdown to the global housing bust, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.
Special Episode: Is AI coming for our jobs?
From hope to reality to hype and hysteria. The rapid development and adoption of generative artificial intelligence may be keeping headline writers busy, but is there anything to their warnings about the technology’s roll-out leading to mass unemployment?
In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Senior Economic Advisor Vicky Redwood and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discuss AI’s potential as an economic game changer and what that could mean for labour markets.
Vicky and Ruth are two of the co-authors of our Spotlight report AI, Economies and Markets – How artificial intelligence will transform the global economy.
They talk to David Wilder about some of the key takeaways from their work looking at AI’s economic and market implications, including:
The size and timing of the coming AI productivity boost;
How AI’s productivity boost could have economy-wide effects;
Whether AI will lead to a wave of “technological unemployment”.
AI’s productivity boom, central bank rhetoric vs reality, recession risk and more
The potential of artificial intelligence to reshape the global economy is more than just the breathless hype of headline writers. Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, explains why AI’s impact should be thought of in terms of previous technological developments such as railways and the desktop computer and how they transformed economies in their time.
Ahead of the 26th September launch of our major new report on what AI means for economies and markets, Paul discusses recent developments with large language models, where the technology is heading from here and why this could translate into massive productivity gains.
Plus Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through the latest central bank decisions to address client questions including:
Why we think the Fed will be cutting rates more quickly and aggressively than officials are signalling
Why the latest data from Europe is so worrying
And why bond markets on either side of the Atlantic have been moving in different directions
Finally, Neil introduces our forthcoming work on where equilibrium interest rates are likely to settle in a post-pandemic world, and why this is something that all investors – regardless of what they’re investing in – are going to have to pay attention to. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.
After rate hikes, US economy anomaly, EU vs Chinese EVs and more
We think the Fed and ECB have ended their tightening cycles, and that the Bank of England's will be over by the end of this week. With hikes over, attention invariably turns to when rates could be cut. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why investors hoping for clues on timing from central bankers are going to be disappointed.
He also tells David Wilder why the Bank of Japan may seize a chance to raise rates for the first time in 16 years, why hard landing fears around China won’t go away and why Europe’s moves against an influx of electric car imports are about much more than industry protection.
Plus, US GDP is pointing up but GDI is pointing down. Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains what could be driving this data discrepancy and why it means it’s still too soon to say the US has dodged a recession.
Click here to explore the analysis and reports referenced in this episode.
Huawei’s chip surprise, the energy price spike, Nvidia in India, UK vs Germany
For consumers, it’s the camera lenses on the outside that may draw them to Huawei's Mate 60 Pro. For those tracking shifts in the global macro narrative, it’s the chip inside the sanctioned Chinese firm’s newest flagship phone that’s most interesting.
In the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what one of the Mate 60’s key components means in the context of US controls on technology exports and the fracturing of the global economy.
Neil also talks about the significance around Nvidia’s Jensen Huang going to India to meet Narendra Modi and also takes in the inflationary risks around the recent spike in energy prices.
Plus, a big growth upgrade means the UK has overtaken Germany and is no longer at the back of the G7 pack. Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Chief UK Economist Paul Dales discuss whether this matters in the grand scheme and the growth outlook for these two struggling economies.
September's rate decisions, China's stepped up stimulus, and the AI race
As summer holidays draw to a close attention is quickly turning to September’s big central bank decisions. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and the team have been sifting through weeks of data from the US, euro-zone and UK to assess what the Fed, ECB and Bank of England are going to do when they sit down to decide their next moves on rates. He tells David Wilder what to expect from these meetings, but also what central bankers mean when they keep telling the press that intend to stay the course on policy tightening.
Neil also talks about Ernie Bot, the new Chinese AI-powered chatbot, and what its release signals about the global race to dominate in this emerging General Purpose Technology.
Plus, is policy paralysis over in Beijing? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks about what’s in the latest stimulus announcement from the Chinese government and whether it’s enough to turn around China’s flagging economy.
Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.
Signs of trouble, equities off the boil, those Nvidia earnings and AI’s promise
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing walks through the summer’s big market themes to discuss the growth outlook, the China slowdown scares and whether the hype around AI is justified. Along the way, he gives his take on the latest PMI readings, explains the problem with China stimulus hopes and previews our forthcoming work on the impact of artificial intelligence on the global economy and markets.
Plus, Tom Mathews, a senior economist on our Markets team, talks about what the enthusiasm around AI is doing to equities valuations now as he talks about that blowout Q2 earnings report from Nvidia. He also discusses why the market has come off the boil in recent weeks, including the rise in bond yields and shifts in the macroeconomic narrative.