6 episodes
Cross Tabs Farrah Bostic
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- News
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5.0 • 3 Ratings
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No soft political analysis from ex-campaign staffers. No predictions. No unskewing the polls.
Cross Tabs is a show to help you understand how political polls are designed and conducted so you can make your own judgments about which polls to pay attention to, how to compare them to other polls, and simply, how to understand what a poll is actually telling you … especially in what is sure to be a strange election season.
Hosted by strategist and (qualitative) researcher Farrah Bostic with regular contributions from her more quantie friends, this show will walk through polling methodologies and results, and provide a researcher's context for at least one publicly available poll each week. No need to be a statistician or pollster - we’ll explain everything as we go along.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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6: What is a voter file? With Paul Westcott from L2
Ever noticed public opinion pollsters talking about "matching survey respondents to the voter file"? No? Just me?
Pollsters use voter file data - public records about who voted - to identify registered and likely voters. This data is used to shape election strategies and predict outcomes. Our guest reveals how raw voter rolls are transformed into powerful tools for micro-targeting and predictive modeling that campaigns rely on.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, host Farrah Bostic and guest Paul Westcott, Executive Vice President at the political data firm L2, discuss the complex process of collecting, cleaning, and enriching voter data. Westcott shares fascinating insights into how L2 builds comprehensive voter profiles by combining public records with consumer data, enabling campaigns to identify and persuade key voter segments. The conversation also explores the challenges of polling methodology in an era of declining response rates.
Resources"Hacking the Electorate: How Campaigns Perceive Voters" by Eitan Hersh
"Race and ethnicity data for first, middle, and surnames" by Kosuke Imai
L2 Voter Mapping tool
LiveRamp
AAPOR (Association of Public Opinion Researchers)
Our GuestPaul Westcott is the Executive Vice President of Sales & Marketing at L2, where he has significantly expanded the company's footprint across various industries, including academia, consumer research, corporate government affairs, automotive, media, and B2C marketing. With over 300 U.S. Representatives and Senators utilizing L2, Paul has helped make the company the largest provider of constituent contact data to Congress. Prior to L2, Paul worked in media for NBC News, Fox News Channel, and iHeartMedia, where he created and hosted a daily talk show and podcast covering news and politics. Learn more about L2 at l2-data.com and connect with Paul on LinkedIn.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Stay ConnectedWebsite & newsletter: crosstabspodcast.com
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5: The Difference Between Internal Polls and Public Polls with Benenson Strategy Group
In an era of widespread mistrust in public polling, a deep dive into the world of political surveys reveals stark differences between public and private polling methodologies. Strategic research consultants Shannon Janean Currie and Natalie Lupiani at Benenson Strategy Group share insider insights on crafting effective polls, identifying key voter segments, and navigating the challenges of an increasingly complex electoral landscape.
With extensive experience in qualitative and quantitative research, these experts discuss the nuances of understanding undecided voters, the impact of question wording and order, and the critical role of transparency in building trust in polling results. They also share their pet peeves about the public discourse surrounding polls and offer advice for consumers navigating the deluge of political polling data.
Mentioned resources:
Echelon Insights “Do Voters Have The Wrong Kennedy In Mind?”: Do Voters Have The Wrong Kennedy In Mind?Harvard Youth Poll 46th Edition - Fall 2023Dan Balz “Collision 2012: The Future of Election Politics in a Divided America”: Amazon Link - Collision 2012: The Future of Election Politics in a Divided AmericaBenenson Strategy Group: Benenson Strategy Group | Strategic Consultants | United States
Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!
Here are all the ways to keep in touch:
Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.comFollow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbosticOr follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/
No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. -
4: Experiments with Amelia Showalter
Amelia Showalter, co-founder and CEO of Pantheon Analytics, former Director of Digital Analytics for President Obama’s re-election campaign, talks to Farrah about the use of data experiments by campaigns to drive donations, volunteerism and turnout in elections. They also discuss the art of redistricting and the importance of local knowledge, and the way vote by mail has evolved, both as a partisan issue and a true driver of voter participation.
AUDIO NOTE: It's all Farrah's fault that the audio is not quite as nice as normal. Reminder not to disturb the Volt 2 during recording. (oops)
Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!
Here are all the ways to keep in touch:
Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.comFollow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbosticOr follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/
No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. -
3: Turnout Models v. The Horse Race with David Radloff
David Radloff, co-founder of Clarity Campaign Labs which provides modeling and analytics, polling and strategy for Democratic campaigns, progressive organizations and non-profits, joins Farrah to talk about how campaigns create and use predictive models - about party preference and about turnout - to develop campaign strategy and predict electoral outcomes.
Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!
Here are all the ways to keep in touch:
Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.comFollow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbosticOr follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/
No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. -
2: Weights and Measures
In our second episode of Cross Tabs, Paul Soldera and Farrah Bostic answer listener questions about how questions are formed, why scales work (or don't work) the way they do, what weighting is, why you would want to "oversample" or use quotas in your sample, and what kinds of differences emerge when you're talking to people on the phone, answering a survey online, or letting someone in to check out what's under your sink.
Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!
Here are all the ways to keep in touch:
Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.comFollow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbosticOr follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/
No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. -
1: No Takes Given
In our inaugural episode released on Iowa's GOP Caucus day, January 15, 2024, host Farrah Bostic (In the Demo Podcast, The Difference Engine) and pal Paul Soldera (Equation Research), set the table for what Cross Tabs is all about: demystifying what polls are and how they work.
Mentioned links:
Jill Lepore's "Politics and the New Machine" [The New Yorker]
Jill Lepore's "The Problems Inherent in Political Polling" [The New Yorker]
What Was Nate Silver's Data Revolution? [The New Yorker]
"Polls' Representative Samples Often Merit Skepticism" [Wall Street Journal]
"How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century" [Pew Research Center]
All in with Chris Hayes, December 21, 2023 [MSNBC]
NY Times/Siena College Poll, December 2023 [New York Times]
"From Which River to Which Sea? College Students Don't Know, Yet They Agree With the Slogan" [Wall Street Journal]
YouGov Poll Links(December 2023):
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/1
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/3
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/2
Suffolk University Iowa Poll (January 2024)
"Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics" [FiveThirtyEight]
AAPOR Analysis of the 2016 Campaign [AAPOR]
"Trump lost, but he won millions of new voters. Where did they come from?" [Washington Post]
The Focus Group Podcast [The Bulwark]
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.