FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

4.5 (20K)
POLITICS
UPDATED WEEKLY

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

2 DAYS AGO

A Topsy-Turvy Week In Review

What even happened last week?! On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew catches Galen up as he returns from a rare week away from his push notifications. They take a look at President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, the status of House Republicans’ slim majority, and examine the polling on President Joe Biden’s controversial pardon of his son Hunter. They also turn an eye to foreign affairs, checking in on recent developments in South Korea and Syria. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

33 min
6 DAYS AGO

Your Post-Election Questions, Answered

In this post-election mailbag episode, the crew tackles your burning questions about the 2024 election. Why did Democrats have lower turnout than four years ago? Is misinformation skewing some voters’ view of reality? Did Harris lose because of her candidacy and campaign style, or due to the broader political environment? And where does post-election voter data even come from, anyways? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

49 min
DEC 2

The 2026 Midterms Are Only 701 Days Away

Galen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public. They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their efforts to reclaim control of Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

40 min
NOV 25

Voters Lose Their Appetite For Incumbents

In this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent advantage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

42 min
NOV 21

How The Polls Did In 2024

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls. Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years. But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 min
NOV 18

What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term

We are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

41 min
NOV 14

A 'Realignment' Among Latino Voters

Latino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

41 min
NOV 11

The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot Takes

Since Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

41 min

See All (203)

4.5

out of 5

19,625 Ratings

Delightfully Soporific

Nov 14

Boopboop22

I don’t think I’ve ever reached the end of one of these podcasts while still conscious, & I mean that in the best way possible. It’s the most reliable way to put me to sleep(people speak at a calm, even pace, on the same predictable topic, and the audio stays at about the same level, regardless of who’s talking). I haven’t learned a single thing from this podcast cuz I’m asleep within the first 20 minutes, and I’m so grateful for that.
Used to love this show

Nov 26

Sarah Felice

I used to love this show. I have been to multiple live shows, I have submitted two questions for model talk and they both were answered on the show, but these days I’m finding the show to be unlistenable. Hope this is just an awkward transition post Nate.
Missing The Mark

Nov 20

KatieDid69

I am statistics person, so love it when they discuss margins of error and probability and in the outlying things that can make it difficult to predict. Unfortunately, their post election takes lean towards one political direction. Would be refreshing to hear a podcast from someone that can take an unbiased look at both the left and the right. Unfortunately, this is not the podcast.
Hot takes? More like bad hot takes

Nov 15

Fjjujsvggz

The hot takes were bad. Americans are hungry for a populist agenda… Biden may have taken a few of sanders ideas and ran with them in a way the dem establishment was okay with. But that didn’t satisfy let alone convince enough people the dems have the backs of American workers. Trump is appealing because he knows how to speak a populist agenda even without enacting one… second hot take is that leftism is loosing on a global stage. Which isn’t the case unless said leftism is not leftism and is really the enactment of authoritarian policies while leaving workers poorer. This episode is very Eurocentric, white liberal elitist take.