Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

A majority of Americans believe the US is in recession and has been for some time. Second quarter GDP just came out wildly above expectations. So is everyone wrong? Not quite. In fact, the GDP estimates actually explain why people are so mad, what they are already doing about it, and why that spells trouble for the entire economy. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
It doesn’t matter what experts say — 3 in 5 believe America is in a recessionhttps://studyfinds.org/3-in-5-america-in-recession/
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Treasury curve continues to make escalating even decisive bull moves. It's not difficult to see why, as another global consumer company admits its having trouble selling its products and in this case to the more well-to-do segment. In addition, former Fed members are urging immediate rate cuts openly wondering if it might be too late. One neighboring central bank is waiting to find out, unleashing another cut of its own and saying there are surely more coming. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC World’s largest luxury group LVMH slumps 4% after second-quarter revenue misshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/24/worlds-largest-luxury-group-lvmh-slumps-5percent-after-reporting-revenue-miss.html
Bloomberg LVMH Shows the Luxury Sector Is in Painhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-24/what-lvmh-tells-us-about-luxury-s-financial-prospects
Bloomberg I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-24/the-fed-needs-to-cut-interest-rates-now
WSJ Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate to 4.5%, Frets Over Downside Riskshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-canada-cuts-policy-rate-to-4-5-frets-over-downside-risks-78a7a81b
Bank of Canada Policy Statementhttps://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/07/fad-press-release-2024-07-24/
Bank of Canada Press Conferencehttps://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-monetary-policy-report-july-2024/
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Replay of the livestream Member Q&A 100 epic discussion. George. Jim. Steve. Mike. Eric. Brent. Emil and Jeff back together again. Two hours of back and forth. Including why Home Alone lied to you.
There was so much all in one place. Spirited back and forth between all the fellas, a real deep dive in true Eurodollar University style. Arguing about the past. Angling toward the future. Even a few questions from EDU members. We just might have to do this again. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's dollar woes have jumped in recent months, so much that they've come out of the eurodollar shadows enough to impact the onshore banking system in an unexpected way. Foreign holdings of negotiable bank CDs have exploded. We'll discuss what that means and how it relates to China's dollar shortage and the surprise set of rate cuts announced by the PBOC earlier today.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Global Funds Pile Up Nearly a Trillion Yuan of China Bank Bondshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/global-funds-pile-up-nearly-a-trillion-yuan-of-china-bank-bonds
Bloomberg China Surprises With Rate Cut After Xi’s Big Meeting Disappointshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/pboc-cuts-seven-day-reverse-repo-rate-to-1-7-to-support-economy
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To way too many Americans and other workers, this is already a recession of opportunity. Without the major statics yet to show it, mainstream commentary has mocked their plight as a "vibe-cession." Now the data is beginning to more clearly align with the recession "vibe", suddenly even authorities are starting to worry so out comes the rate cuts. As Steve says, that's not what you want. 
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ET
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.university
Bloomberg Goolsbee Says Fed Risks ‘Golden Path’ If It Doesn’t Cut Soonhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-18/goolsbee-says-fed-risks-golden-path-if-it-doesn-t-cut-soon
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

All year all anyone has heard is the Fed and its rate cuts. Soft landings imply a little weakness but no worry, Jay Powell will cut rates once maybe twice and everything will be just fine. The only question is, why on earth does anyone believe this? The evidence and history of interest rate targeting - as you'll see - is indeed 100%, as in total failure. Rate cuts (like hikes) are pure superstition. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ET
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.university
PBS Is the Fed going to cut interest rates? What was once a question of ‘when’ is now less certainhttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/is-the-fed-going-to-cut-interest-rates-what-was-once-a-question-of-when-is-now-less-certain
Morningstar We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rateshttps://www.morningstar.com/economy/we-expect-gdp-growth-weaken-until-fed-starts-cutting-interest-rates
FOMC Transcript March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdf
Remarks by Chairman Alan GreenspanRules vs. discretionary monetary policyAt the 15th Anniversary Conference of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University, Stanford, CaliforniaSeptember 5, 1997https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/1997/19970905.htm
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU