8 episodes

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Forward Guidance Jack Farley | Blockworks

    • Business

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    The Dollar Rises With Crypto And Gold - What Gives? | Michael Nicoletos at DAS: London

    The Dollar Rises With Crypto And Gold - What Gives? | Michael Nicoletos at DAS: London

    When Jack Farley ran into macro investor Michael Nicoletos at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in London, he knew the two had to film an interview. Nicoletos shares his thoughts on crypto’s role within a macro portfolio, why the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, and why the 40-year bull market in bonds might not yet be over. Nicoletos argues that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will eventually replace stablecoins as an onramp to crypto, and argues that China economic woes are very serious.

    Blockworks next crypto event in May 2021: https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/
    Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96
    Michael Nicoletos’ Twitter: @mnicoletos

    • 45 min
    The Psychological Toll of Inflation } Vincent Deluard

    The Psychological Toll of Inflation } Vincent Deluard

    We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc, who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today's tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China's withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.

    • 1 hr 16 min
    How To Spot Overvalued Companies | Tobias Carlisle

    How To Spot Overvalued Companies | Tobias Carlisle

    Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers’ Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very high and whose balance sheets are pristine. Carlisle shares with Farley the methodology and structure of of his value funds, The Acquirers’ Fund ($ZIG) and the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value ETF ($DEEP), and he shares his vision for the future of value investing.

    • 1 hr 1 min
    Is Inflation Overhyped? | Eric Basmajian

    Is Inflation Overhyped? | Eric Basmajian

    Is the 40-year era of falling bond yields and low inflation coming to an end? That is the question investors have been asking themselves for months, and now that October's CPI reading hit its highest level since 1991, it is a query that can no longer be avoided.

    Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research is confident that all this anxiety is unnecessary. On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Basmajian tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rate of inflation will soon relent, and why he thinks the bull market in bonds is nowhere close to over. Pointing to the fall in economic growth rates as measured by industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income, Basmajian argues that an overweight allocation to Treasury bonds will protect investors from a slowdown in growth, as can be seen by the rolling over of coincident factors such as industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income. Basmajian explores particularly explosive parts of the Consumer Price Index like durable goods and rent, and he explains his long-term view that aging populations will ensure low bond yields in the United States just as they did in Europe and Japan.

    Basmajian's article on demographics:
    https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/the-global-demographic-vortex

    Basmajian's article on rent inflation:
    https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/are-you-worried-about-rent-inflation

    The Dallas Fed's paper on rent inflation:
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0824

    • 1 hr 12 min
    Deconstructing Macro Narratives About Inflation, Bonds, and Bitcoin | Huw Roberts, Quant Insight

    Deconstructing Macro Narratives About Inflation, Bonds, and Bitcoin | Huw Roberts, Quant Insight

    The world of macro investing is full of narratives: that a rising dollar threatens emerging market stocks and commodity prices; that rising bond yields imperil growth stocks but buoy value stocks; and that inflation is bad for Tesla, good for gold, and great for Bitcoin. There is more than a grain of truth to these mantras, but they miss the complex interplay of macro variables. On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley investigates these sacred cows of macro to see if they are a little shaky on their legs in a “man vs. machine” conversation with Huw Roberts, head of analytics at Quant Insight.

    • 49 min
    Hunting for Hidden Financial Risks | Stephen Clapham

    Hunting for Hidden Financial Risks | Stephen Clapham

    Do balance sheets matter? Do cash flows matter? In a world where asset prices are driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, the answer can seem to be yes. But since this environment gives companies license to embroider their finances, the ability to spot their accounting sleight-of-hand is of immense value to investors.

    Today on the third episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes Stephen Clapham, forensic accountant and founder of Behind the Balance Sheet. Clapham shows the most common instances of financial legerdemain and gives in depth analysis of companies such as Tesla, Ferrari, and The Hut Group.

    • 1 hr

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