Forward Guidance Jack Farley | Blockworks

Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor and Founder & CEO and of Dilweg, joins Forward Guidance to share shocking information from the world of commercial real estate (CRE) in general and office in particular. Dilweg, whose firm owns over 5.5 million square feet of real estate, mostly located in the Southeast United States, argues the challenges CRE will contend with may be greater than those faced during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Dilweg’s base case is that office as an asset class is structurally broken as the trends of remote and hybrid work are here to stay. He expects over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be rendered obsolete in the coming years. With all these challenges notwithstanding, Dilweg is optimistic that there will be great investment opportunities for well capitalized players who can take advantage of market distress. Filmed on November 29, 2023.
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About Dilweg: https://www.dilweg.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:19) Dilweg's Background in Football and Real Estate
(04:10) Dilweg's Start In Real Estate: "Ready, Fire, Aim"
(09:00) Office Is The Most Capital-Intensive Sector Of Real Estate
(12:15) Interest Rate Surge Has Been A "Jolt To The System"
(20:30) Office Is Structurally Broken Right Now
(34:10) It's A Lot Worse Than The Headlines
(43:10) Lease Term: Comparison To "Duration" In Bond World
(44:10) Interest Rate Hedging In The Real Estate Business (Public REITs and Private Investors)
(45:00) Are Office Rents Going Down?
(50:35) Dilweg's Forward Outlook On Returns
(53:10) A Lot Of Properties Will Go Back To Banks
(01:09:00) Dilweg's Outlook on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Other Than Offices
(01:14:50) The Rise Of Experiential Hospitality
(01:17:50) WeWork & Adam Neumann
(01:23:00) Dilweg's View on Office Markets In Big U.S. Metropolitan Cities
(01:29:10) The Work-From-Home Debate
(01:46:00) The Rise of Private Credit

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:18) Geopolitical Risks Are Often Mispriced
(09:20) Papic's Outlook on Russia-Ukraine War
(13:30) Blank Checks For Ukraine Are Getting Very Politically Expensive For Western Politicians
(23:11) Military Alliances Can Be Dangerous
(25:41) Papic on Israel-Hamas War: "Palestinian Issues Have Never Had A Market Impact"
(27:31) Papic Believes That Conflict "Will Be Contained To Israel"
(34:29) Gold's Recent Rally As Central Banks Diversify Away From U.S. Dollar
(37:16) The Market Has Become Aware That World Is Increasingly Multipolar
(42:39) Analogy To World War 1 and World War 2
(48:00) What Makes A Great Power?
(52:19) What Are China's Global Ambitions As A Great Power?
(59:35) China & Taiwan
(01:06:58) U.S.-China Economic Relations (Flow of Trade and Capital)
(01:11:05) There Will Be A Huge Buying Opportunity In China Over Next 12-18 Months
(01:13:27) U.S. Presidential Election
(01:16:47) I Think There's No Way In Hell The Fed Raises Rates Over The Next Twelve Months
(01:19:43) American Elites Are Not Very Smart

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets. Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023.

MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes
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Until November 27th, a 20% discount can be obtained on 4-pack passes to DAS as well. Use code “BLACKROCK” at checkout.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

(00:00) Introduction
(00:25) It's Been A Busy Year
(02:29) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of U.S. Economy
(13:06) Will There Be A Recession In 2024?
(15:44) Jens' Bull Case For Rates
(22:27) Fed Will Be "Much More Relaxed" If Services Inflation Continues To Moderate
(28:41) Potential For "Big Cuts"
(31:07) An Extraordinary Summer In FX
(34:34) Jens' Bear Case For Dollar Against Gold and Risk-Off Currencies Such As Swiss Franc

Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update his views on fixed-income and the economy. He argues that shorting the yen // buy non-yen-denominated assets trade, the “greatest carry trade in the world,” may be unwound as the Bank of Japan steers away from yield curve control and potentially will raise interest rates. This would have massive implications on global markets, which Glinsman expounds on in depth. Filmed on November 20, 2023.
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MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(09:19) The Deficit Will Probably Increase, Not Decrease
(11:05) U.S. Election
(15:21) Crypto & European Sovereign Debt Crisis
(26:13) Germany's Fiscal Situation
(31:51) Geopolitics in Middle East
(35:26) The "Biggest Carry Trade In The World"
(56:03) Stock Market
(01:07:27) U.S. China Relations Are Improving
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of Crowded Market Report, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his philosophy for trading markets. Shapiro explains that while the only position he currently has on is being long the Swiss Franc, he still thinks stocks will likely outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Filmed on November 16, 2023.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(10:51) Stock/Bond Correlation
(14:39) Hindsight Is 20/20, Show Me The P&L
(16:30) Gold & Oil
(21:55) Narratives Are Cheap
(26:36) Investing Vs. Trading
(32:37) Banks & Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
(40:46) Correlations & Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs)
(49:12) Jason's Long Position in The Swiss Franc
(55:26) The Role Of Stop Losses
(01:03:42) When To Get Out
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

George Robertson joins Forward Guidance to argue that the exceptionally large fiscal stimulus will mean that the economic boom has no end in sight. Once the market realizes there will be no recession, Robertson continues, stocks will soar and the 10-year will rise. Robertson makes the case that the “true” risk-free yield curve is actually not inverted, a claim at odds with common conceptions and one of many claims that Jack pushes back on, some others being that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has effectively no impact on the economy and that the 10-year Treasury yield is an accurate gauge of future nominal GDP. FIlmed on October 30, 2023.
MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes
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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction
(04:00) The Huge Economic Boom Is Just Getting Started
(07:16) George Says Federal Reserve Has "Violent" Control of the Press
(11:49) George Says Risk-Free Rates Are Commonly Misunderstood
(20:32) Federal Reserve is "One Of Greatest Creations Of U.S. Democracy," Says George Robertson
(23:08) Debate About Interest Rate Impact on Mortgage Prepayment Speeds
(30:00) Debate About Whether Mortgage Curve Is "True" Yield Curve
(51:19) SOFR is Complete Useless Garbage
(01:02:14) Minsky Comes In: Hedge Phase to Speculative Phase to Ponzi Phase
(01:26:00) 10-Year Headed To 6% As "Cheap As Hell" Stocks Will Enter "Ponzi Phase"
(01:30:40) It's "Foolish" To Make A Call On Labor as Jobs Market At 50-Year High, Says George Robertson
(01:34:00) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) & Inflation
(01:45:29) George's Experience With Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.