Forward Guidance

Blockworks
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Forward Guidance Podcast

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

  1. 18 HR. AGO

    Gold Stocks Are Undervalued | Imaru Casanova (VanEck Fireside Chat #4)

    Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, joins to share her views on how to value gold stocks such as gold miners and gold royalty companies. Casanova argues that with the recent run up in gold, gold stocks could be undervalued and are poised to deliver strong results and returns. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Imaru Casanova on VanEck website: https://www.vaneck.com.au/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/imaru-casanova/ Casanova’s latest piece on Gold Miners: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/ima-casanova-miners-margins-grow-as-gold-soars-to-fresh-highs/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The New Bull Market In Gold (06:32) Investing In Gold Companies (09:14) How To Value A Gold Company (16:38) Cash Flow vs. Earnings? (19:25) Gold Miners Are ~20% Discounted Relative To Gold Prices (22:51) Specific Gold Mining Stocks (25:36) Managing Jurisdictional Risk (36:54) Thinking About Depreciation (40:04) Common Mistakes When Analyzing Gold Companies (44:38) Gold Royalty Companies (52:06) Greenfield vs. Brownfield Projects (58:32) Closing Thoughts on Gold Miners __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    1h 7m

  2. 1 DAY AGO

    There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews

    This interview with Jonny Mathews explores why he believes we aren’t headed for a recession, how real consumption will likely drive Q3 GDP higher, and why he thinks unemployment will moderate. We also discuss the market opportunities he’s seeing, hitting home run trades, and much more. __ Follow Jonny Mathews on Twitter https://x.com/super_macro Subscribe to Super Macro at https://super-macro.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Are We Headed For A Recession? (03:09) Income Growth Is Driving Consumption (05:45) Household Savings (07:44) Unemployment Will Moderate (15:40) Credit Markets (19:48) Permissionless Ad (20:48) Job Market Revisions (23:47) Opportunities In Fixed Income (27:32) Trading Interest Rates (30:53) Will Inflation Continue To Fall? (35:42) Labor Market Data (39:31) Opportunities In The UK (50:30) Home Run Trades (52:55) The Gold Market (55:33) China Outlook (01:01:24) S&P 500 Earnings (01:05:29) AI & Productivity (01:09:29) Super Macro Note (01:12:05) Jonny's Trading Experience (01:18:13) Stocks Over Bonds (01:20:27) Cumulative Personal Savings __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

    1h 23m

  3. 2 DAYS AGO

    The Labor Market Is Cooling | Talmon Smith & Jack Farley (Driving Back from Camp Kotok)

    This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more. __ Follow Talmon Smith on Twitter https://x.com/talmonsmith Latest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View (08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not (17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency (18:53) Permissionless Ad (19:51) Interview Continues (26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong (37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself (42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields? (49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money? (01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    2h 4m

  4. AUG 29

    India Is The Most Promising Emerging Market | Angus Shillington

    This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024. __ Follow Angus Shillington on Twitter: https://x.com/angusshillingto Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing (01:19) GDP Vs Equity Performance (06:16) Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities (10:14) Chinese Real Estate Market (11:54) Most Promising Emerging Market (18:28) How India's Market Improved (22:57) How India Companies Fund Themselves (24:29) India's Favorable Demographics (30:01) Best Performing Industries In India (33:09) India Inflation (35:31) India's Imports & Exports (36:50) Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations (45:58) Indian Investment Goals (49:00) Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector (53:54) TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market (01:10:01) Does ASML Have A Monopoly (01:12:26) Most & Least Favorable EMs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

    1h 17m

  5. AUG 27

    Markets Will Get A Deficit President No Matter What | Jim Bianco & Jeremy Schwartz

    This interview with Jim Bianco and Jeremy Schwartz discusses the Federal Reserve’s policy path, whether inflation will actually come down, and if the economy is headed for a no landing. We also delve into the neutral rate, the key election issues for markets, and whether stocks will outperform bonds. __ Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://x.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Jim & Jack's Assessment Of The Economy (02:58) The Fed & Interest Rates (03:55) Unemployment & The Sahm Rule (06:57) Is Inflation Coming Down? (08:33) Real Interest Rates (11:05) What Is The Neutral Rate? (14:21) The Pace Of The Cutting Cycle (18:41) Election Insights (20:55) Deficits Are The Key Issue (23:11) Will Stocks Outperform Bonds? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

    30 min

  6. AUG 26

    Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession

    This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more. – Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) The Risks Of Financialization (02:07) Financial Market Signals (05:37) China & The Global Economy (09:44) China's Problems Are The World's Problem (15:15) US Economic Resilience (21:07) How Good Is The US Economy? (27:11) Fed Vs Wall St. Priorities (30:28) Comparing Major Economies (37:18) China's Economic Advantages (40:44) Where China Spends Its Money (49:44) China's Growing Influence (53:01) The US Economy & Inflation (01:10:31) European Economy (01:11:58) Asian Economies (01:14:48) Camp Kotok __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

    1h 17m

  7. AUG 22

    How the Dollar Will Be Gradually Eroded by Emerging Market Currencies | Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina (VanEck Fireside Chat)

    This interview with Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina delves into the potential of emerging markets, how they are affected by developed market weakness, and contrasting central bank strategies. We also discuss investing in China, emerging market reserve strategies, and de-dollarization. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 7, 2024. __ Follow Eric Fine on LinkedIn https://blckwrks.co/3SUlCPt Follow Natalia urushina on Twitter https://x.com/NGurushina Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) How Eric Got Interested In Emerging Markets (03:38) Natalia's Introduction To Economics (05:55) How Big Is The EM Bond Market? (11:07) Why EM Bonds Have Outperformed (14:40) Weakness From Developed Markets (17:35) The Yen's Impact On EMs (26:24) BOJ Vs Brazilian Central Bank (29:16) Mexico's Fiscal Orthodoxy (30:58) Benefits Of Floating Currencies (34:32) Making Money In EM FX (36:53) Signal For EMs To Cut Rates (38:38) Role Of Hedge Funds In EM FX (41:25) Diversification In EMs (46:24) Sub-Saharan Africa (51:48) Importance Of India (59:40) Investing In China (01:04:49) China's Growth Model (01:17:10) Emerging Market Reserves (01:25:01) De-Dollarization __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

    1h 46m

  8. AUG 19

    The Strategies & Risks In Quant Trading | Mike Harris

    This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI. -- Follow Mike Harris on Twitter https://x.com/mikeharris410?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Mike Harris Background As a Quant (03:07) Quest Hedge Fund (04:30) CTA Trend Following Strategy (11:50) Trend Following Examples (16:47) Permissionless Ad (17:44) Interview Continues (19:33) Quant Equity Trading Getting Crowded (22:52) Statistical Arbitrage (27:17) Risks to Statistical Arbitrage (32:11) Multi-Strat Hedge Funds (33:32) Lack of New Fund Launches (39:04) Sharpe Ratio In Strategies (41:34) Private Market Investing (48:29) Volatility Strategies (54:17) Macro And Stock Market Outlook (01:02:26) Risks To Quest (01:06:02) Risks To Training Models With AI __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

    1h 11m
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4.7
out of 5
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About

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Information

  • Creator
    Blockworks
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2024
  • Episodes
    414
  • Copyright
    © 384141 Blockworks 2021
  • Show Website
    Forward Guidance

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