141 episodes

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Forward Guidance Jack Farley | Blockworks

    • Business
    • 4.7 • 75 Ratings

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    Liquidity In Crypto Is Declining | Scott Freeman

    Liquidity In Crypto Is Declining | Scott Freeman

    Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s (“SBF”) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022. 
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
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    ___
    Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com
    ___
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw
    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/feusos
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Intro
    (00:35) Scott Freeman's Background
    (04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015
    (09:06) Crypto in 2020
    (12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022
    (15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto
    (19:23) Where Does Yield Come From?
    (20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising?
    (22:07) Algorand Ad
    (23:52) Alameda & FTX
    (29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried
    (34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges
    (39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es)
    (40:13) General Market Outlook
    (42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)
    (49:07) Is There A Silver Lining?
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 51 min
    Learning From Market Tremors | Hari Krishnan

    Learning From Market Tremors | Hari Krishnan

    Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline. 

    Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
    Hari Krishnan’s book, “Market Tremors”: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj
    --
    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
    --
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw

    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/feusos

    Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
    --
    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction
    (01:24) “Dominant Agents" In Finance
    (04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful?
    (13:26) The Shadow Banking System
    (17:28) The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks
    (19:12) Curve Ad
    (25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative?
    (27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX
    (38:56) Leverage Within Crypto
    (42:45) Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners
    (44:36) Volatility In 2022
    (58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market
    (01:04:27) The Role Of Macro
    --
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 hr 13 min
    Joseph Wang & William White: Mammoth Interest Rate Hikes Are Causing Trouble In Sovereign Debt

    Joseph Wang & William White: Mammoth Interest Rate Hikes Are Causing Trouble In Sovereign Debt

    Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve.

    They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability.
    William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/
    Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/
    --
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
    __
    Academic papers referenced:
    "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah
    "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8
    "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq
    William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling:
    https://rb.gy/robwk2
    --
    Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com
    --
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw
    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/feusos
    Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
    --
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Introduction
    (01:09) Looking Back At 2022
    (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions
    (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error"
    (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models?
    (25:25) Algorand Ad
    (27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do?
    (40:43) The Debt Trap
    (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake?
    (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap
    (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money
    (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here
    (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX
    --
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 hr 15 min
    Forced Retirement Selling May Disrupt Santa Rally | Zed Francis

    Forced Retirement Selling May Disrupt Santa Rally | Zed Francis

    Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022.

    --
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
    About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/
    Convexitas’ piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/
    Convexitas’ piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/
    __
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw
    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/feusos
    Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Intro
    (00:33) The Financialization Of Everything
    (10:27) Private Markets
    (17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained
    (19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense
    (26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail
    (38:41) Stocks and Volatility
    (41:53) "Ignore The VIX"
    (45:19) Tail Risk
    (50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks?
    (01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market
    (01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen
    (01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts
    (01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays
    (01:26:00) Basis Risk
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 hr 34 min
    Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone

    Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone

    Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists. 

    McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so.

    NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTX’s distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX. 

    Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
    ___
    Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com
    ___
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw

    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/feusos
    Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Intro
    (01:15) We're Going Down"
    (05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto
    (07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil
    (11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked?
    (22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand?
    (26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic?
    (29:42) Forward Curve In Oil
    (38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession
    (47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil?
    (50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation
    (55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto?
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 hr 2 min
    There’s Just Not Enough Energy | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins

    There’s Just Not Enough Energy | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins

    Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.
    This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g
    --
    Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy
    Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap
    Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/
    --
    Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com or jack@blockworks.co
    --
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

    • 10 min

Customer Reviews

4.7 out of 5
75 Ratings

75 Ratings

TradeSlpRepeat ,

Incredibly Underrated

Love this podcast and the unique perspectives it offers on everything macro. One of the few podcasts that I take detailed notes on. Definitely inspired some of the topics Ive discussed on my show. Keep up the great content! -Spencer Campbell (Host of Man vs Market podcast)

The Real Schwarzenegger ,

Temper tantrum

Apparently jack doesn’t re-listen to his own podcasts for improvement. He sounds like a high school kid arguing with his teachers. Couldn’t listen for long.

DEFELI1 ,

Jack keeps promoting

Not good to sold yourself to Kuppy.
Quality getting worse

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