Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

US GDP data was solidly - recessionary. There's no soft landing here; on the contrary it is following the established pattern. The economy isn't rebounding, it is highly unstable in the same way as what happened just prior to previous recessions. Looking into the report's details confirms the interpretation.

Government officials and politicians, even stock market "analysts", these are the last people you want to depend on for useful macro analysis. What is dependable has been unmistakable if you haven't been distracted. The damage has already been done, and it's just a matter of time. Even Jay Powell's former self says so.

The Treasury's extraordinary measures to avoid breaching the debt ceiling includes winding down its TGA balance with the Fed. The unintended consequence is to raise the level of bank reserves at the same time the Fed is attempting to reduce them (QT). Will this end up restarting "inflation?" Unpacking TGA, QT, and QE with actual evidence, including the Fed's.

We have big and growing economy problem on our hands, one that is confirmed more every passing day by ominous, persistently negative developments. Yet, when you examine a specific class of data, you see none of this. That's because we have an information problem as much as a macro one.

What if the world's most powerful institution is actually nearly powerless? If that was true, it wouldn't sound any different from what came out of the mouth of its most famous leader. The truth has been blocked out even though the proof has been right there out in the open this entire time.

Again the petroyuan. There isn't a day goes by when someone isn't shouting about the dollar's imminent demise and most often they say it has to do with China and oil. The world's current reserve currency system may be reaching the end of its useful life, but I assure you it has absolutely nothing to do with either of those. In fact, the only reason the thing has stuck around is because of what a real reserve currency is and what is has to do.