Palisades Gold Radio is the largest online discussion platform for junior mining globally. Each week, host Collin Kettell interviews top experts in the energy and mining space to discuss macro trends and identify strong investment ideas. With over 1,000,000 views in just three years and videos viewed from over 150 countries around the world, Palisades Gold Radio is the best place for top quality mining content. Guests have included Robert Kiyosaki, Don Coxe, Rick Rule, Eric Sprott, Doug Casey, Frank Holmes, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and much more. Visit us at www.palisadesradio.ca
Larry Williams: Inflation Cycles have Topped for Now
Larry discusses how bad news sells and everyone has a cognitive bearish bias. If you focus on the bad too much, then reality gets in your way. We saw capitulation in this market back in June. This is typically an excellent point to enter markets.
The stock markets are the biggest money making system ever invented if you can hold on.
It's hard to find a good indicator that calls market tops. Good indicators reflect what is happening in markets. Emotions drive markets.
He discusses how each indicator should have a separate purpose. He uses COT reports to understand where the smart money is moving in the market. Seasonality plays are also important to consider.
There are natural cycles to the way things happen. When a combination of indicators coincide, that boost the probability of a winning trade. Markets move for fundamental reasons, including demand and economic condition reasons. You need both to understand what is going on in markets.
Usually, rising interest rates are bearish for stocks. Recessions usually start when central banks begin dropping rates after a period of increase. This may indicate those in control feel things are starting to turn bad. Stocks always bottom before a recession ends.
Larry believes the inflation period is ending, and it's part of a six-year cycle. The math is going to start showing improvements in the CPI.
We're in a fiat currency system, which has different rules than a gold backed system. Debt matters today, but only to a point. Currencies can get out of control, but if you have good financial leadership, the economy can be regulated.
He shows some charts that demonstrate that equity markets often lead inflation.
Larry believes that Bitcoin will be the tulip of our time. Commodities are the leading driver for gold. The only difference is the irrational emotional exuberance around its value.
He discusses his views on inflation and why paying attention to the commercial buying of gold futures is important.
There are commodities with strong seasonality like crops which tend to move in October.
Money management and controlling your emotions in trades is key. Learning and analyzing your losing trades is vital.
Talking Points From This Episode
* Trading advice and indicators from decades of being in the markets.* Thoughts on the gold markets and the underlying causes of inflation.* Seasonality and patterns in equities and the CPI.
TimeStamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Change & Perspective3:35 - Favorite Indicators4:35 - Trading Vs. Investing5:48 - Fed & Positioning8:07 - Indicators & Purpose11:38 - Rising Rates & Stocks14:07 - Recessions & Labor14:56 - Inflation Cycles16:40 - CPI Chart Pattern20:43 - Causes of Inflation24:40 - Dollar Dominance26:12 - Equities & Inflation30:34 - Fallen Angels31:45 - Dollar & Crude Oil32:53 - Gold Drivers36:43 - COT Charts & Trends42:26 - Perspectives & Truth43:48 - Seasonality & AG46:00 - IBM Seasonality49:31 - General Trading Advice52:41 - Wrap Up
Website: https://www.ireallytrade.com/Books: https://www.amazon.com/Larry-R.-Williams/e/B001IOBJCA/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_pop_1
Larry Williams has been trading futures, commodities, and stocks for almost 60 years.
Through good years and bad, Larry has survived recording and teaching his market wisdom.
Peter Goodburn: The Dollar is in Its Terminal Phase
Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn to the show. Peter is the founding partner of WaveTrack International.
Peter discusses how his commodity supercycle theory is likely to play out. This is a very long-term cycle over the past ninety plus years.
Many companies were wiped out during the pandemic, and there have been many mergers. This has resulted in shortages along with events like the Ukraine war. Much of this had to do with the transportation ports being unable to keep up with demand. He shows some Elliot Wave charts which detail how inflation in emerging markets and U.S. stocks. Elliott wave is quite useful for seeing patterns and determining where markets are likely to head. After this year's correction plays out, he sees a big commodity cycle move next year across many asset classes. Both interest rates and inflation will move considerably higher.
Elliott models are based on repeating patterns that aren't random. There is a process of pattern development that can help predict future events. It's not a crystal ball, as it may be hard to determine why things will play out. Central banks around the world are playing catch up with inflation. They seem to have failed to recognize the signs that inflation would appear.
Markets fundamentals aren't as useful as you might expect. The Fed's upcoming announcement will be interesting to see how things play out.
Investment banks are reporting that the dollar is a crowded trade. This could mean we're reaching a terminal phase for that trend.
He gives some predictions for copper, crude, and gold. Central banks appear to be behind the curve and reacting instead of being proactive. They need to be more forward-thinking.
Peter shows some long-term trends for the dollar and why we will see a decline out to 2030. The dollar may not have much left to the upside. The causes of this will likely be continued dedollarization and inevitable loss of confidence. Whatever the trigger, we're going to see a change in the way it's treated globally.
Gold has been declining since March due to dollar strength. He believes we're close to a bottom and should begin a new leg up. Silver appears to have bottomed, which is a good sign for gold. Silver normally only outperforms gold in an uptrend.
Peter sees massive potential for platinum and miners in general over the next couple of years.
Lastly, he examines the various indexes and their possible lows. We may be in for a final countertrend rally before we reach the lows.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Commodity Supercycle6:50 - Elliott Waves & Inflation14:12 - Fundamental Drivers20:25 - Fed Announcements23:13 - Patterns & News26:00 - Copper Prices & Crude34:59 - Dollar Strength & Gold47:16 - Silver Performance50:48 - Platinum52:24 - Trading Approaches54:10 - Mining Equities58:30 - Market Indices & Yields1:07:56 - Interest Rates1:10:05 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* How the commodity supercycle will play out.* Outlook for copper, crude, gold, silver and yields.* Why silver and platinum will outperform.* Downside targets for equity indexes.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.wavetrack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTI
Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s, working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper optio...
Mark Magarian: This is an Inflation the Fed can’t Solve
Mark Magarian returns to the show to discuss the markets and the fundamental outlook for gold. Timing is key in these markets.
Mark discusses the importance of managing risk and considering the fundamentals of assets. Volatility isn't necessarily the concern, but more importantly is their cash flow. Resource companies with diversification across metals and jurisdictions are important considerations.
There have been a number of surprises over the past couple of years. Including the policies of governments and how some of them have persisted. We're dealing with the aftermath of the money printing, and we see the problems in logistics and supply. The Fed's fight on inflation is also very interesting, but inevitably the markets can't deal with high rates for very long.
Many who invested in crypto markets may not have been interested in hard metals. Most larger players in the space aren't interested in metals either. They see crypto as a spin-off of tech related sectors. Crypto really is new tech.
Silver can be a better speculative indicator than gold. Gold is increasingly looking quite attractive. A good indicator for gold is when the yield curve moves out of inversion. This indicates the Fed is choking, and gold usually has large moves to the upside. We're currently deeply inverted. Gold is quite hated and therefore, as a contrarian, there are some interesting opportunities.
We will see $2000 gold again probably over the next 12 months and likely upwards of $2300 inside 18 months. He discusses ways of keeping gains during the next bull market. This sector is wild and discipline is key, avoid leverage. Watch for gaps up in the gold price and excessive media attention to the sector. Those are indications that it's time to take profits.
The biggest risks in mining are mismanagement and share dilution. Find companies with good balance sheets and growth profiles.
He has high conviction that uranium will move to $100 in the next five years. However, how it gets there is an open question in this market.
Lastly, Mark discusses why oil isn't going away anytime soon and the journey to all electrics will take some time. The United States is being more cautious on energy and natural gas. However, we are still draining the strategic reserves for political purposes. Europe wants all the natural gas we can send, and the Saudis are cutting production slightly. A rise in energy prices this winter seems very likely, but may be somewhat short-lived.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Lessons & Timing4:27 - Managing Risk6:35 - Surprises & Opportunity9:36 - Crypto & Silver16:48 - Gold Fundamentals19:08 - Kinross Announcement20:53 - Forecasts for Gold21:57 - Exiting and Profits25:53 - Nuclear & Uranium31:06 - Oil & Electric Future38:17 - Europe Civil Unrest?39:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points from this Episode
* Mitigating risk in these markets and considerations with miners.* Why silver and gold plays are looking increasingly attractive.* Predictions for gold prices over the next two years.* Outlook for energy and risks of civil unrest this winter in Europe.
Guest Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-magarian-96a6b624/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Maggers78
Mark Magarian is Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments LLC. Previously, he was a Vice President and Portfolio Manager for Wells Fargo Advisors. He has been in the business for over twenty years. The first half of his career was spent working with hedge funds,
Michael Pento: The Worst Part of the Bear Market is Dead Ahead
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the program.
Michael discusses how the bear market is here to stay, and the next phase is coming. We've only experienced the opening salvo. Wall Street will soon realize that earnings are in decline. We're in a global recession with hawkish global central bankers. The market bottom might be around 3300 on the S&P but that is optimistic. Total equity valuations remain considerably overvalued, and they need to correct to fair value.
The yield curve is more inverted than any time in the last forty years. This normally signals recession, and this time is no different. The Fed is buying all the assets, causing interest rate repression. There is no mystery as to the causes of inflation, it's money printing. The Fed has to raise rates to four percent by March 2023. Michael says, "The fact the Fed thinks they can get to four percent and do 95 billion a month in QT is asinine." The Fed is having a very difficult time controlling inflation, and now they don't care what happens to the economy. They cannot pivot, they have to regain credibility. This will be one of the deepest recessions we have ever seen.
The Fed really has no clue about anything, especially the causes of inflation. There has been almost no job creation this year. We're seeing inventories build, which is boosting Q3 GDP, but that won't last. Inflation is a massive embarrassment to the Fed, but they will destroy the economy and markets to accomplish it.
Government is fighting inflation by giving away more money and cancelling student debt. More money isn't going to make college more affordable. They are just creating more demand for services, which will just cause prices to rise further. Subsidies do not fight inflation. We need to increase the supply of goods and services by improving productivity. We've done everything we could to kill productivity through the pandemic.
Tax receipts always fall in recession, and debt service payments are increasing quickly for the government. The national debt is skyrocketing, and a fair interest rate would probably be in double-digits. There are no easy answers in the current system. The negative effects of the rate hikes have barely begun to be felt.
Inflation always peaks during recession, don't listen to the pundits who claim we've peaked.
The four horseman of the economic apocalypse are cash, U.S. sovereign debt, the dollar, and shorts. If you own those four things, you will probably not lose money in this bear market. You might even make money. It's clear we're heading to a liquidity crisis. You want flexibility in this environment.
When rates and the dollar begin to fall sometime in 2023 you will see gold rally.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Bear Market Starting4:39 - Bonds, Spreads, & Banks11:40 - Targeting Inflation15:42 - Indicators & Fed Reliance19:20 - Government Insults22:00 - IRS Growth & Taxes28:33 - The Peak of Inflation30:52 - Economic Apocalypse33:45 - Gold & Positioning38:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
* Outlook for the markets and why the bear isn't going away.* Why the Fed's is cornered and it's policies asinine.* Inflation and why it always peaks during recession.* The four safe havens of the economic apocalypse.
Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: firstname.lastname@example.orgTwitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies,
Craig Hemke: The Fed’s Goal is to Inflict Losses
Tom welcomes back Craig Hemke, founder of TF Metals Report, to the show.
Craig discusses how he is becoming an old-timer in this industry and how his website has given him access to people all over the world. If you're going to follow the precious metals, you've got to follow everything from the economy to politics. That exploration unveils all the fraud and corruption in the system.
Events are speeding up, and we see this with Russia's move toward an alternative gold standard for international trade. The inevitable result will be less demand for dollars. As more viable alternatives get built and the dollar continues to be printed, we will see a decline in its value. Numerous countries are heading in this direction.
In today's economy, the paper derivatives of gold and silver control the physical price of metals. We can't double the amount of physical gold, but did multiply the amount of paper equivalents. This creates the perception there is more gold than actually exists. Most people don't realize the dollar is backed by nothing.
The way interest rates have spiked, inflation expectations, and the dollar soaring means we are likely heading for a big crash. We could see another thirty percent drop from here in equities.
Craig discusses how arrogant the Fed and Jay Powell are at believing they can manage the economy. We could easily see a big reset downwards in everything. Consumer prices will not be dropping, but they just might be able to slow their continue rate of increase. Much of the country is living paycheck to paycheck. Many of whom will likely lose their jobs as everything is against the middle class. The mathematical problems inherent in the system are becoming obvious. We are now in the endgame, and you don't want to be caught sleeping.
Craig argues the powers that be, are manipulating the bitcoin markets the same way they manipulate gold and silver. It's no longer a closed loop system now there is more supply through derivative products.
There is a lot of copper flow off the markets, and we're seeing big spreads in silver retail markets. Most of the time the market makers win, and with gold and silver that's the futures banks.
This is a time to be paying attention, and you should be building relationships with your community. Pay close attention in the months ahead because we are in treacherous waters.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:20 - Age and Wisdom5:13 - Moscow Gold Standard12:32 - Paper Drives Physical17:07 - Article - Dead Period23:20 - Jackson Hole Speech27:40 - Destroying Demand33:30 - Redefining & Hubris35:53 - Complacency & Authority39:52 - Changing Your Thinking43:00 - Crypto Mortgages48:37 - Article - Silver Factor53:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* The complexity of markets today and importance of following everything.* Russia and other countries continued move away from the dollar and the inevitable results.* The Federal Reserves hubris in thinking they can 'manage' the global economy.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetalsWebsite: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe
Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services," he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "market...
Cliff – The Liberty Offensive: While the Fed Nukes the Economy, Metals Primed to Move
Tom welcomes Cliff from the Liberty Offensive channel. Cliff discusses why the ideas of Liberty only work when most people agree. Many people don't even agree on the meaning of terms like Liberty. The way to keep your liberties is to use them to their full extent. A free man needs to defend their beliefs because these are key to their worldview. You should be living it and demonstrating its importance to others, not unlike a religious belief. If you want to spread liberty, you have to tell others. Others need to become inspired by ideas like open carry. Liberty minded folks should impress upon others the importance of freedom and provide inspiration. Show off your freedom and your freedom mindset. Too many people have become complacent, and we must change our approach.
Ultimately, fundamentals will win out since they are tied to the truth, but modern narratives drive everything. However, right now, "We live in a fantasy world, reality has been destroyed." If you can't discern the false narratives from reality, then you will eventually get burnt.
The pattern of rates declining for forty years has now fundamentally shifted. The world has now thoroughly changed, and a new Fed pivot will mean something different. This time a Fed pivot will likely be a bad sign because they are essentially cornered. The bigger threat is now the power of government and the risk of depression. We're seeing this behavior in Europe, where they are printing money to "fix" the energy problem. Politicians are going to make problems worse around the world.
He theorizes that something will break outside the United States. There will be some sort of external reason to stop the tightening.
We're seeing a culmination of various crisis that are happening around the world simultaneously. We're looking at more than just a bad year. He discusses all the problems with agriculture and how it's spilling over to livestock and cattle. Price inflation on food is just beginning.
Cliff notes the miners are all oversold and now is likely a good time to accumulate. Silver may have more upside than uranium. Uranium is showing signs of weakness and a pullback is possible.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction0:49 - Defending Your Liberties8:33 - Freedom for Granted10:51 - Fundamentals & Narratives16:00 - Falling Rates & Charts23:10 - The 'Pivot'al Moment26:22 - Culmination of Crises32:47 - Ratio Synchronicity43:45 - Big Producers46:02 - Uranium or Metals54:02 - Equities & Commodities57:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* The importance of defending liberty by going on the offensive.* Why the very structure of rates and debt has undergone a paradigm shift.* The Fed will pivot when something breaks outside of the United States.* Outlook for commodities including gold, uranium, silver, and energy.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/LibertyOffenseYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvgm9qCaW1HR4BLa0mXTh1A
Cliff is the host of the Liberty Offensive YouTube Channel. He is a macro and technical analyst on gold, silver, energy, and commodities.
He provides quick-hitting analysis of macroeconomic events, daily news cycles, markets, technical analysis, politics, trends, and a dynamic sundry of interesting topics. Topics they regularly discuss include commodities, stocks, charts, money, investing, gold, silver, uranium, crypto, bitcoin, and Ethereum.
You scored getting him to open up. He speaks with courage and conviction, as do you. Thanks
Mostly good but
A good interviewer can give advice completely contradictory to what they are saying. A podcast with a ‘gem’ about every two weeks. Be wary. This podcast is obviously set up to increase liquidity in the market... so you can fiat currency. STAY ALIGNED WITH YOUR MESSAGE.
Great Listen; Great Shownotes
Yeah, I know, complementing a podcast for great show notes probably seems weird. However, it is such a blessing with the show that I wish other podcasts would adopt. Somebody puts a lot of effort into detailed show notes which helps so much when specific websites are mentioned or companies are named or books are referenced. I don’t have to try and guess what the website address was because they go to the trouble of putting it in the show notes.
Wonderful, thoughtful guests and a great interviewer who lets guests give complete answers without interruption.
Great work. Keep it up.