UBS On-Air: Market Moves Client Strategy Office

Markets exhibited a naïve belief in the accuracy of economic data yesterday. US first quarter GDP will probably be revised stronger, and hinted at future consumer strength. The data does put more focus on today’s personal spending figures—and in particular the personal consumer expenditure deflators.

Jason and Paul rejoin the podcast in-studio to discuss the second edition of the new CEO Briefing Book quarterly series. We dive into how the macroeconomic environment, the landscape for corporate transactions, and geopolitics have all evolved thus far in 2024, and in turn what that means for corporate operating environments and decision making. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US releases its first guess at first quarter GDP (a generally accurate number should be available sometime around 2029 or 2030). The rapid pace of structural change means that increasing amounts of economic activity are likely being missed in this sort of data. Overall, there should be some signs of a slowdown, but middle-income consumers will still provide resilience.

As US taxes are expected to rise (especially for wealthy families), spanning income tax, capital gains tax, and estate tax, Justin and Ainsley join to discuss strategies that investors can leverage in order to prepare. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Matt rejoins Jason in the studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Matt McLennan, Co-Head of the Global Value Team, First Eagle Investment Management, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Senate has passed legislation defunding parts of Gen Z, with a ban on TikTok being allowed in US app stores unless the Chinese owner sells within 270 days. This potentially removes the economic activity generated by US content creators (influencers reportedly have an average income of over USD120,000—albeit with a very uneven income distribution). This economic activity may be underreported in official data, but it still takes place.