Forward Guidance Blockworks

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties.
Although the title “head of macro” plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlight’s macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024.
James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0
Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback:
https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(06:08) Job Offer And Title
(12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro?
(20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest)
(23:48) Van Eck Ad
(24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing"
(31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro"
(50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie"
(56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial"
(58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023
(01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment"
(01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn
(01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem"
(01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative
(01:19:17) Higher For Longer
(01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election
(01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve)
(01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft
(01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency
(01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:37) Mel’s Background
(04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years)
(06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market
(11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook
(14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard”
(17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”)
(24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s
(27:56) VanEck Ad
(28:38) Why Now?
(37:01) Great Depression
(43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues
(48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)?
(59:14) Timing: 2027
(01:04:52) Social Security Funding
(01:17:01) Gold and Inflation
(01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise
(05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure
(06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons
(21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions
(25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish
(26:13) VanEck Ad
(27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?
(28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia
(33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?
(39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)
(54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market
(01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks
(01:07:49) The Labor Market
(01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(01:07) An Overview Of Currencies
(09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge
(20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe
(25:41) Economic Outlook
(29:27) VanEck Ad
(30:28)
(34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies
(36:23) Emerging Market Currencies
(42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit
(45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007
(49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY)
(01:00:27) View On Stock Market
(01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket
(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far
(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect
(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises
(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can
(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?
(21:43) VanEck ad
(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things
(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?
(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy
(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market
(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)
(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies
(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)
(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) The Script
(02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes
(04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession
(07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)
(13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market?
(17:13) VaEck Ad
(18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500)
(22:35) Stock Bond Correlation
(30:17) May Fed Meeting
(31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts)
(33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year
(34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy
(39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks?
(41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise
(44:53) The Japanese Yen
(46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States
(47:37) Chinese Equity Market
(49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT)

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.