DHUnplugged Podcast Horowitz and Dvorak

Sinkholes forming

Memes again - Huge Moves

Economy starting to stall

Face Ripper moves into the close

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Warm Up
- Sinkholes forming
- Memes again - Huge Moves
- Economy starting to stall
- Announcing a NEW CTP

Market Update
- Face Ripping - Last Friday
- Software Stocks hammered
- May finished in the green nicely
- Oil Drooping
- Roaring Kitty is back

Face Rip
- Stocks ramped on the last day of the month
- 300 points in 10 minutes to finish the day on Friday
- markets had a good month -
-- Large Cap Growth up 6% for the month
- US real estate up 5%
- Only area LataAm down for May

Sinkhole Forming Again
- MEGA Caps pulling market up - Primarily NVDA
- Monday S&P 500 Flat - S&P Equal Weight  -0.53%

Best Buy Earnings
- "Sluggish Demand"
-  Earnings per share: $1.20 vs. $1.08 expected   Revenue: $8.85 billion vs. $8.96 billion expected
- Best Buy has noticed a pullback in purchases of discretionary items as consumers manage higher costs because of inflation.
- Shares soar

Software stocks Soft
- Salesforce plunges 20% after it posted weaker than expected revenue
- The WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund, an exchange-traded fund that tracks cloud stocks, slid 5% this week, the sharpest decline since January. Paycom, GitLab, Confluent, Snowflake and ServiceNow all lost at least 10% of their value in the downdraft.
- Dell PLUNGED - 20% too this week

Economics
- April Construction Spending -0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior -0.2%
- May ISM Manufacturing Index 48.7 vs 49.6 Briefing.com consensus; prior 49.2
- May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 51.3 vs 50.9 prelim; prior 50.0

Focus on Manufacturing (Briefing.com)
- The May ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 48.7% (consensus 49.6%), down from 49.2% in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the May reading suggests there was a faster pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector last month.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a faster pace of contraction in manufacturing activity that will stir worries about the economy missing its mark with a soft landing.
- The New Orders Index slumped to 45.4% from 49.1%, hitting its lowest level since May 2023.
- The Prices Index dropped to 57.0% from 60.9%.
- The Employment Index increased to 51.1% from 48.6%.
- The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 42.4% from 45.4%.
- The Supplier Deliveries Index held steady at 48.9%.
- The Production Index decreased to 50.2% from 51.3%.
- The New Export Orders Index rose to 50.6% from 48.7%.

Fed Cuts - Not Happening
- According to the latest issues of Barrons
- "The Federal Reserve isn’t likely to lower interest rates in 2024.  Elevated inflation, a resilient economy, and a still-strong, if softening labor market argue against the need for easing monetary policy, especially as these conditions are expected to persist through year end."

WAIT A MINUTE
- Rate cut bets for September are back a 66% probability after a slightly weaker than expected JOLTS report
- 10YR Yields @ 4.35% (Down from 4.6% last week)

GDPNow
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q2 real GDP growth is 1.8%, down from 2.7% on May 31
- Latest downward revision follows today's release of the ISM Manufacturing Index for May and Construction Spending Report for April.

As Usual - Backwards
- OPEC+ prolongs cuts for one year
- OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.

Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM

The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes

Cruise anyone?

Global Warming - New Info In

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




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Warm Up
- Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM
- The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes
- Cruise anyone?
- Global Warming - New Info In

Market Update
- 40,000 ! Then we fail
- Fed Officials Hawkish behind closed doors
- BBQFlation
- Split Excitement!
- Hindenburg Omen

Fed - Two Faced
- Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions.
- Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease.
- The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024.

BBQFlation
- Your Memorial Day barbecue will cost upward of 10 percent more than it did this time last year according to Datasembly
- Datasembly follows the cost of groceries across the country every week. Its recently released data points to this year's Memorial Day festivities costing the average American family about $30.18 or 10.19% more than 2023.
- Burgers jumped from $7.04 in 2023 to $8.07 in 2024, or a change of 14.63% in cost. Hamburger buns cost two cents more, from $3.04 on average to $3.06.

Hindenburg Omen
- Indicator was triggered last week.
- only right about 25% of the time
- Was thought to be able to predict market crashes - let's see what happens.

FED HEAD
- The Federal Reserve should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday.
- Asked what conditions were needed for the Fed to cut rates once or twice this year, Kashkari said: “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back.”
- He said the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails to come down further. “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point,” Kashkari added.

Could we finally get relief from these thieves?
- The U.S. Department of Justice is suing to break up Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, over alleged antitrust violations.
- The lawsuit, joined by 30 states and filed Thursday, follows a DOJ investigation into whether Live Nation maintains a monopoly in the ticketing industry, a probe launched in 2022 and bolstered by fan complaints following a botched roll out for tickets to Taylor Swift's Eras tour.
- In a statement, Live Nation said the DOJ's allegations of a monopoly are "absurd."
- "The DOJ's complaint attempts to portray Live Nation and Ticketmaster as the cause of fan frustration with the live entertainment industry. It blames concert promoters and ticketing companies—neither of which control ticket prices—for high ticket prices. It ignores everything that is actually responsible for higher ticket prices, from increasing production costs to artist popularity, to 24/7 online ticket scalping that reveals the public's willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost," said Dan Wall, Live Nation executive vice president for corporate and regulatory affairs.

DONATIONS- New Shirt Design?

Miracle Flights
- The 1986 Air Carrier Access Act requires airlines to provide a wheelchair to passengers with disabilities at the airport. The problem: Many travelers are faking it,

Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday

Oil Unusually stable

Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident?

Meme stocks come back to earth

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




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Warm Up
- Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday
- Oil Unusually stable
- Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident?
- Meme stocks come back to earth
- We have an Osbourne Effect

Market Update
- 40,000 ! Get the party hats!
- ATH, ATH, ATH
- Commods - Copper and Gold (AND silver)
- VIX - lowest since 2019
- Someone better against Tesla (Big name)

Banks
- The Federal Reserve and two other U.S. regulators are moving toward a new plan that would significantly reduce a nearly 20% mandated increase in capital for the country's biggest banks following lobbying efforts by industry CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend.
- Required increases in capital for banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs meant to ensure they have sufficient buffers to absorb potential losses — would on average be about as much as originally floated, the Journal added.
- Top officials from all three agencies involved in the pending capital rules — the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — are still discussing substantive and technical revisions and there is no guarantee that an agreement will be reached, the WSJ reported.

Goodbye?
- In a response to a question Monday about the bank's succession planning, Dimon indicated that his expected tenure is less than five more years
- That's a key change from Dimon's previous responses to succession questions, in which his standard answer had been that retirement was perpetually five years away.
- Stock dropped 4% on that conversation

No Direction - Grasping ....
- Snap Inc. Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel said he’s investing more aggressively in bringing artificial intelligence and machine learning to Snapchat to make it more interesting for its users, the next major shift after years spent overhauling its advertising business.
- “There was a recognition that we’d fallen behind the curve on the machine learning side, which, to some degree, was reflected in the business performance,” Spiegel said in an interview. “We needed to improve there and bring together some of our most senior machine learning folks to just talk about what it would look like for us to get to state of the art and really invest.”

Meanwhile
- VIX is sagging
- The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, closed Friday at the lowest level since November 2019 as the benchmark stock index traded in a tight range just below the all-time high.
- Aside from an April pop, the VIX has been muted for much of 2024 as shares climbed.
VIX Chart
Interesting
- Online home goods retailer Wayfair is opening its first namesake store, near Chicago, following a string of other digitally native companies that have turned to brick-and-mortar for growth.
- So they think the low cost failed execution is going to do better in the higher cost brick and mortar arena?
- The company says people need to still sit in and try furniture.... (WHAT?)

AI - Here we go
- OpenAI has disbanded its team focused on the long-term risks of artificial intelligence just one year after the company announced the group, a source familiar with the situation confirmed to CNBC on Friday.
- News of Sutskever's and Leike's departures, and the dissolution of the superalignment team, come days after OpenAI launched a new AI model and desktop version of ChatGPT, along with an updated user interface,

Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation

PPI HOT - Market does not care

A Meme stock face ripper!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




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Warm Up
- Inflation reports PPI today and CPI tomorrow
- Sentiment is dropping - wondering why
- Meme stock face ripper
- EV days - losses not acceptable
- PPI and CPI this week

Market Update
- Another good week - seems like coming out of downturn
- Rates down- 10Y Treas falling over past week
- S&P 500 near record
- Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation
- PPI HOT - Market does not care

Fed talk
- Fed's Goolsbee and Kashkari
- There has been cross currents in the data.
- There has been some bumps in the road on inflation in 2024.
- The Fed is in a wait and see mode
- Cautious about how restrictive policy is.
- More data is needed before they can predict a rate cut.
- There is a high bar for another rate hike, but not ruling it out.
- Leases trending up is a concerning signal.
----- What does any of that tell us?
------ We need to start a movement to SHUT THE FED UP (STFU)

Latest Inflation Readings
- The Producer Price index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. The index for final demand, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March.
- On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 2.2%, marking the largest increase since April 2023, while the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 2.4%, unchanged from March.
- The key takeaway from the report is that nearly three quarters of the increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.6% increase in the index for final demand services, something that will detract from the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to its 2% target.

Powell speaking AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he doesn't think next rate move will be a hike, more likely a hold; time will tell if policy is sufficiently restrictive; PPI reading was quite mixed

Getting AI Overload
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says "not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me" 

Sentiment
- Consumer sentiment fell sharply in May to the lowest level in six months as Americans cited concerns about stubbornly high inflation and interest rates and fears that unemployment could rise
- May Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 67.4 vs 76.5 Briefing.com consensus; April Final was 77.2

Fed Put
- Markets melting up since last Powell comments
- There is  a new spin on the old "Fed put." The latter rested on an unspoken assurance that the Fed would step in with easier policy to forestall a market meltdown.
- The new version doesn't guarantee a rate cut soon, but it has created an unspoken assurance that market participants can trade around the idea that the next monetary policy move is likely to be a rate cut.

Meme Stocks
- Gamestock was up 80% and  many of the other names moving hard
--- Seems like the original Gamestock dude - Roaring Kitty put out a tweet on Monday and the stock went bananas...

More Squeeze
- Shares of the vaccine maker soared 99% Friday, after the company signed a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot.
- The move boosts a stock that had plunged about 99% — prior to the deal — from its 2021 peak amid waning demand for its Covid vaccine.

Earnings season - better and stats

- BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER

- We are gauging investor sentiment

--- Remember - Confidence  and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps)

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




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Warm Up
- Earnings season - better and stats
- BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER
- We are gauging investor sentiment --
--- Remember - Confidence  and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps)
- Announcing the WINNER  CTP for Apple
- Fake Work?

Market Update
- If down - buy.... Names that were hammered due to earnings catching bids again
- Follow up - Utilities
- Fed Speaks - Can't stop the Dove
- Employment - Excitement about the Unemployment Rate

Earnings Season Update:
- Overall, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2024 to date.
- Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 74%.
- In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.5% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.7%
- Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors.
- Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials.
- Revenue - up again - estimated to be 4.1% when all said and done.
-  -    If 4.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.

Fake Work
- An investor at famed Silicon Valley firm Andreessen Horowitz is the latest VC to get involved in the debate around "fake work" in the tech industry.
- Ulevitch went on to point the finger at Google specifically, calling it "an amazing example."
- "I don't think it's crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work," he said. "The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts."
- Marc Andreessen has criticized a managerial "laptop class" and tweeted in 2022, "The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more."

Buy 'em
- Companies that took a hit after earnings (NFLX, AMD) getting bid again
- NFLX gapped lower from ~$608 to $551 and now $592
- AMD dropped from $160 to $140 and now $156
- SPY , IWM and QQQ- Now above the 50day Moving average again

Follow Up - Utilities
- Just wanted to provide this idea again - Data Warehouses and other AI Power hungry places
--- Symbol list of some utilities to look at further - SO, NEE, EXC, CMS
- Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone.
- After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation's vehicle fleet.
- AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030
Utilities ETF



Apple - Earnings
- Nothing great in the earnings.
--- A few pockets of sunshine....
--- Raises dividend and $110 BILLION buyback - largest buyback EVER ...

Earnings season winners and losers.

Episode 700 - been a great run - plenty more to come.

New airline regulations and what that means to all of us.

Inflation - its not over just yet.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
DONATE - Show 700 Campaign

Warm Up
- Show #700
- Guess the date of EPISODE #1 (Show # 1 was Sep 16, 2008)
- - No Agenda episode  #1  - October 26, 2007
--- The Disciplined Investor Podcast show #1 -  Mar 02, 2007
- ALL economic series showing signs of inflation
- The great money in God - Top Wealthiest Pastors
- Fiducuary rules fo Retirment Plans

Market Update
- Shaking off some and smacking others - earnings season underway
- April not a great month for US equities - April now in the books
- Earnings seasons - winners and losers
- Yields on I Bonds Updated
- European stocks end April down 1.49%, posting first negative month since October

Derivative AI Investing
- Secondary play - Utilities
- We spoke of the huge demand for electricity/power from any source to power datacenters
- Investors looking for a unique way into the stock market’s artificial intelligence boom are finding an intriguing bank shot in what’s traditionally the most boring corner of the equities universe: utilities.
- Southern Company, NextEra, Excelon, CMS Energy also Eaton, Hubbell
-- Bad couple years as this is an interest sensitive sector - but massive consumption increase coming

Bird Flu in Milk
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed milking cows in Colorado tested positive for Bird Flu, following earlier infections in Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Idaho, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Dakota.
- Additional tests of milk showed that pasteurization killed the bird flu virus, federal health officials said on Friday, as Colorado became the ninth U.S. state to report an infected dairy herd.
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late on Friday said preliminary results from gold-standard PCR testing showed pasteurization killed the virus in milk and baby formula. It did not say how many milk products it had tested but added that it plans to do more testing on 297 products from 38 states.

Good Money in God
- Most Wealth Pastors
- Benny Hinn, 71 Estimated net worth: US$60 million
Joel Osteen, 61 Estimated net worth: US$100 million
- Kenneth Copeland, 87 Estimated net worth: US$300 million

Apple Headset and More
- Earnings coming May 2
- Big slowdown in sales in China has been widely telegraphed
- Not much excitement about the product line or any innovation at this point
- AI is going to be conversation they will start to help push shares
- Apple slashes Vision Pro production, cancels 2025 model in response to plummeting demand
-- Analysts are cutting their sales for the Vision Pro in HALF!
- - Apple may decide not to release a new model in 2025 - was expecting a cheaper version possibly

Back to Inflation
- Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated.
- The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.
- Consumers showed they are still spending despite the elevated price level. Personal spending rose 0.8% on the month, a touch higher even than the 0.7% estimate. Personal income increased 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the 0.3% increase in February.
- GDP Report showed more pricing pressures
- Overall, 100% of recent reports showed that the inflation monste...