Brought to you by KW Alternative Feeds, this fortnightly podcast covers all you need to know about the raw material markets and topical product information. Ensuring you have up to date knowledge helping you make better informed buying decisions for all your herds needs.
KW Feedcast Episode 18 - 19 October 2021
This episode of Feedcast is brought to you by Chris Davidson and James Barker, and they don’t want to go over the same material again but the headline is you need to secure your winter ration now or risk running out on farm.
First they foray in to fibre, where it is not a pretty picture at the moment. British Sugarbeet 1st price has been withdrawn, with no sign of a second price at the moment, and with gas prices where they are will they continue to dry it? Imported Sugarbeet prices look high and demand is set to keep them there.
Soya hulls likewise are struggling due to logistics issues and lack of imports, resulting in on farm prices of £220 - £230. It is hard to see any improvement in sight here, while the US soya harvest has almost finished the majority of UK soya hulls comes from Argentina. They are just planting now for a harvest in April and while forward summer prices may be lower, it is not a guarantee.
Proteins are a similar story with soya still the best cost per unit of protein produced and summer prices are looking favourable at £320-£330 on farm. However we are starting to see increased purchase of NovaPro as a result of pressure to remove soya from the diets coming down from the processors.
Sustainability and carbon footprinting is something we are beginning to hear more and more, with James & Chris spending some time discussing the implications of different Soya certification and ways of tackling the issue.
The main message today is availability is tight on most products and logistics problems are causing issues on getting feed to farms, so order with as much time as possible. While prices are high, it is worth covering now to reduce your risk of running out on farm or prices going even higher.
KW Feedcast Episode 17 - 05 October 2021
The latest episode of Feedcast continues to highlight the logistics and availability woes that we have seen of late. Chris Davidson and James Barker are on hand to discuss how you get what you need when you need it and the challenge of doing so!
The key topic this episode is Rapemeal and the lack of it. At the end of last week prices were withdrawn from all major crushers in the UK until the end of January at the earliest. As a result prices have sky rocketed and heading towards the highs seen earlier this year. This is a result of seed logistics and gas prices, affecting the whole of Northern Europe.
Mid-protein prices as a result of the lack of Rapemeal have all risen aggressively with imported wheat distillers reflecting the Rape price. This has meant Ensus Distillers are also now under pressure.
All these market pressures have resulted in a push to add soya to diets. The latest USDA report has given soya a boost with an unexpected increase in yield and quality leading to a drop in market price. While the price is now rising again, soya is trading at where it was 12 months ago in US $ terms and is looking very advantageous right now.
In cereals we have seen wheat futures rise nearly every trading session in the last two weeks with only brief pauses. The latest USDA report has shown a lower yield and stocks are at the bottom end of what was expected. This means European and UK wheat are very competitively priced.
In summary there is little good news, look at soya and Ensus distillers right now and forward book as soon as you can to ensure you are covered for what looks to be a very tough winter from an availability and logistical point of view.
KW Feedcast Episode 16 - 22 September 2021
Today’s episode of Feedcast highlights the concerns around lack of supply and the risks this is causing in the market. With roughly only 40% of the market covered at the moment for winter, now is the time to begin to think about getting the materials you need.
While the US soya harvest is in early days at the moment, the first reports are of yields not looking as good as hoped. The markets are relying on a good crop coming out of North America for the winter ration, without this we can expect prices to rise. South America has begun very early plantings, and it is too early to say what this will look like but at the moment the ground is too dry to facilitate the large crop that is needed to keep summer 2022 prices down. It could be worth your while looking at starting your summer cover now.
On the mid-proteins, nearby shortage of rape meal continues to hold prices up, with lack of seed selling, coupled with logistical challenges unlikely to improve in the coming weeks/months. Ensus Distillers represent very good value for the winter, but again, volumes look to be limited and general availability of mid-proteins remains the primary concern at present.
While prices are higher than last winter, Sugarbeet looks very good value against Soya Hulls which continue to struggle for availability, even in to the winter. Its also worth remembering that at these levels, Sugarbeet is still a lot cheaper than it’s peak price in early summer. Generally, it seems unlikely we will see a drop in these markets which are reflecting the shortage of material around the globe and consequently high demand.
Moving forward we would recommend really focusing on your winter requirements. The supply situation is not going to loosen over the next couple of months and we may well see issues of getting what you want when you want it for the foreseeable future.
KW Feedcast Episode 15 - 7 September 2021
In the latest episode of Feedcast hear James Barker and James Butt-Evans discuss the forthcoming USDA report, where the UK wheat market is and the effects of the weather and logistics on the global raw materials market.
This Friday sees the latest full acreage report come from the USDA. This will be an important marker for the short/medium term direction for trade. Potentially this will show an increase in corn acreage and no change for soya, but what will this mean for yield?
Continuing in the US, hurricane Ida has caused immense damage to supply and logistics. This has a positive effect on cost at source, however this has been negated by the impact of increased logistics costs. We have witnessed a leap in price for maize distillers which are up around £10-15 this week, however the futures market has remained stable, suggesting this price rise is due to the transport issues.
Staying with logistics, Argentina continues to suffer from low water, this is resulting in boats only being able to be filled to 50-60% capacity. This may of course open up an opportunity for soya should the water levels increase.
In positive news soya is good value at the moment with prices falling to the same level as last year. This could be the protein to focus on for winter cover. In the UK rape meal and Ensus wheat distillers continue to be available, with a watch out around location as distribution continues to be an issue here with rising transport costs due to lack of drivers.
UK wheat is now 85% harvested with a mixed quality and yield. The negative effect of a small Russian crop and quality issues in France has held the price, but we are seeing London wheat futures taking a dip which suggests there are opportunities to be had.
Now is the time to start looking for these small advantages and begin to plan ahead for Winter. As always if you require any further information or help don’t hesitate to contact your KW sales representative.
KW Feedcast Episode 14 - 17 August 2021
This episode sees James Butt-Evans and James Barker discussing the current outlook of the raw materials markets with an update on the latest USDA report.
This had some bullish surprises for corn and wheat markets.
Although the US are still expected to have their second largest corn crop ever, the US carry out for 2021/22 was lower than trade estimates due to the difficult hot weather across some areas of the US.
The wheat market has followed in a similar trend as we saw Russian and Canadian wheat production down heavily as hot weather impacted those crops.
In positive news soya was relatively neutral in the USDA report, and prices while higher than last year are still good value in a ration.
Grains are currently in a difficult place, however as James says, KW are on hand to discuss further and any alternative options to book forward.
KW Feedcast Episode 13 - 3 August 2021
In today’s episode of KW Feedcast, Raw Materials Buyer, James Butt-Evans looks in to the increasing wheat prices and what deals are existing in the markets at the moment.
While the barley harvest is now 50% cut and prices are alleviating, wheat is a whole different story. The tightening in the wheat market is due to a variety of factors. Firstly the European harvest, which has been severely delayed by the rain. 50% is now cut, however over 400,000T of boats are waiting to be loaded. The rain has also meant the quality of this wheat is now questionable – although this may have a positive effect for animal feed. Secondly the heat in the US continues to be an issue. A recent wheat quality check in Dakota has seen the announcement of 29.1 Bushels per Acre, well below the 5yr average of 43.6. We are all relying on a good UK crop, but with harvest at under 5% cut at the moment we will have to wait to see if an opportunity does arise.
Positively soya prices have dropped for winter and the first part of next summer and wheat distillers are also looking like a good opportunity at the moment.
As we have said previously, look for opportunities as they arise and think about what you can do to cheapen your winter ration. It looks as though we are likely to have a season of higher prices than we have seen for the last few years.