Palisades Gold Radio Collin Kettell

Tom welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management to discuss the business aspects of the mining industry.







Adrian stresses the importance of understanding a company's financial situation beyond initial disappointments, using Barrick Gold as an example of a company with a history of optimistic production estimates leading to missed targets but effectively managing these issues. He emphasizes the significance of cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.







The conversation touches upon the challenges faced by mining operations, such as equipment failure, geopolitical risks, maturing mines, and hurdles common to every operation. Fortuna is used as an example of a company whose significant zinc production should be considered in evaluating its revenue distribution among different metals.







Adrian discusses the disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, attributing it to gold's strong performance amidst central banks and Chinese investors seeking safe havens and the broad stock market's strength. Despite potential risks, such as a pause or reduction in buying by central banks and a negative macroeconomic environment, Adrian highlights the opportunity presented by undervalued gold stocks.







The speaker also touches upon exploration expenditures and their importance in discovering new deposits despite the increasing difficulty of finding them. In his investment strategy, Adrian emphasizes investing in senior miners and major royalty companies during the current market cycle due to their undervalued status and likelihood to move first when the gold sector takes off.







The conversation concludes with a discussion on economic stress in financial systems caused by excessive debt accumulated during periods of ultra-low interest rates, with maturing low-interest loans causing strain for households and corporations between 2024 and 2026. Adrian emphasizes the undervaluation of gold mining companies considering gold prices and their margins.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:16 - Miners & Missed Targets6:43 - All-In-Costs Metrics9:47 - Production Misses14:39 - Risks & Juridiction18:50 - Valuing Poly Deposits20:55 - Gold Price & Miners26:17 - Closing The Gap?30:19 - Mergers & Timing Cycles33:16 - Companies & Exploration36:12 - Portfolio Strategies39:37 - Royalty & Streaming42:16 - Low Premiums on Metals46:20 - Silver & Sentiment47:47 - OTC Purchases & Reports50:28 - Consumers & Metrics53:00 - Biggest Stress Points57:30 - Long-Err-Term Bonds?1:02:48 - Wrap Up







Talking Points From This Episode









* The financial situation of mining companies, even those with initial disappointments, should be thoroughly understood for long-term investment opportunities.







* Barrick Gold serves as an example of managing production misses effectively.







* Cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs are crucial for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.







* Various factors that have led to a disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, presenting opportunity for undervalued gold stocks.









Guest Links:Website: https://adrianday.com/







Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opp...

Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Robert Sinn to share his background in precious metals, junior mining, and biotech investing. Robert discusses his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis through his father's experiences at coin shows and investments. The conversation later focuses on the Federal Reserve's recent announcement of tapering quantitative tightening and its potential impact on market positioning, emphasizing fiscal dominance and potential softer data suggesting a possible negative non-farm payroll print.







Sinn further explores the Fed's shift in inflation targeting, proposing that it might adopt a new, unannounced inflation target above 2%, around 3%. He explains that markets have accepted the Fed's decision not to cut rates as frequently as anticipated, but anticipate at least one more rate cut this year. Parallels are drawn between the late 1970s and the current situation regarding government spending policies and inflation trends.







The discussion then shifts towards energy investments, with Sinn emphasizing uranium and natural gas as crucial areas due to their baseload power generation capabilities and affordability. He acknowledges the transition towards cleaner energy but argues that it will take considerable time for this shift to fully materialize. Sinn holds stocks in both oil companies and renewable energy sectors, adopting a long-term perspective.







Theys explore differences in debt structures between China and the U.S., their implications on markets, and strategies for investing in gold. The conversation shifts to Japan's debt ownership versus the world owning U.S. debt. This leads to a discussion about China's debt structure, which sees the government act as the backstop for all debt within their economy.







Robert then delves into the Fed's influence on markets and its ability to impact financial conditions without changing interest rates. This interview concludes with an emphasis on gold investing, stressing the significance of global data, especially from China, when analyzing gold market trends. Various strategies are suggested for investors looking to stay in the gold market during volatile periods. Robert discusses the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and focusing on the structural bull market trends.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Background & Metals3:25 - Juniors & Biotech5:29 - Fed Reactions10:02 - Fed Inflation Targets11:36 - Market Reactions13:25 - 1970s Parallels16:55 - Energy Investments20:00 - Seasonality in Biotech21:22 - War Headlines & Gold23:12 - Gold A New Era?26:49 - A Tectonic Shift28:34 - China Vs. U.S. Debt30:43 - Fed Rate Clown Show34:18 - Trader Positioning37:39 - Bull & Staying Invested40:43 - Portfolio Structuring46:00 - Rules For Juniors49:50 - New Discoveries53:30 - Lessons & Danger Signs59:40 - Go Long Yoga Pants1:00:41 - Wrap Up







Talking Points From This Episode









* Roberts background in precious metals and his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis.







* The Fed's potential shift in inflation targeting: new unannounced target above 2%, around 3%.







* Energy investments: uranium, natural gas, baseload power, affordability, and long-term perspective.







* Strategies for holding on during volatile bull markets.









Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CEOTechnicianSubstack: https://robertsinn.substack.comCEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfingerYouTube: https://www.youtube.

Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Don Durrett, an experienced author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss gold prices and the economic implications. Durrett believes an imminent hard economic landing will boost his bullish stance on gold. In March 2023, gold reached new highs above $2050, while silver showed significant gains. However, miners have not followed suit.







Durrett considers the present economic climate different from previous periods due to the Federal Reserve's reduced ability to revive the economy. He highlights that while the US economy grew and used debt in the 1990s, it eventually balanced its budget. However, since then, the US economy has reportedly been declining for approximately 25 years, leading to significant global shifts like countries abandoning US bonds and equities and increasing interest in gold as a reserve currency.







Japan's bond and currency struggles could potentially trigger a crisis due to their substantial US treasury holdings. Durrett discusses the potential impact of Asian countries purchasing gold and the importance of oil purchases in gold-importing countries like Japan and China.







Don expresses bearish views on the stock market and bullish predictions for silver prices due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts like those seen with the Hunt Brothers in the past.







Don shares his perspective on gold miners using the HUI index to identify buying and selling opportunities. He considers anything below $250 on the HUI cheap, with levels between $200 and $225 being the buy zone. Opportunities for cheaper stocks extend from $225 to $250. However, as the HUI approaches $300, fewer cheap stocks become available. He anticipates the gold miners' bull market hasn't started yet but expects it to resume in the next couple of months and predicts a potential dip in gold and silver prices before the significant uptrend begins. The summer may not be as uneventful this year due to potential rapid market movements once risk-on sentiment shifts to risk-off.







Don has been successful with mid-tier producers some of which have seen substantial growth through acquisitions. He also discusses his investment strategy, holding stocks amidst potential economic downturns, diversification through various investments such as silver, crypto, and physical preparation by selling to the top. He also mentions the unsustainability of constant wars due to increasing budget deficits, implying that peace may prevail as America retreats from its aggressive role on the global stage.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Article & Gold ATH4:25 - Rates, Risks & Spending18:37 - Japanese Bond Markets23:40 - C.B. Gold Buying27:27 - Gold Price Predictions31:34 - Silver Expectations37:50 - Hunt Brothers 2.0?43:23 - ETF Metal Flows48:07 - Miners Bull Market?51:22 - Summer Doldrums?54:30 - Wall Street Interest?1:01:22 - Miners Risk Vs. Return1:10:00 - Stocks & Great Taking?1:15:10 - Rapid Changes Coming1:21:22 - Optimism & Wrap Up







Talking Points From This Episode









* Don Durrett believes an economic downturn will boost gold prices; gold & silver reached new highs in March 2023, but miners lagged behind.







* Bearish on stocks, bullish on silver due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts.







* America's aggressive role on the global stage unsustainable due to budget deficits, peace may prevail.









Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: a href="https://www.

In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, economist and wealth advisor Jonathan Davis once again joins host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the theme of inflation and its implications for the current economic era. Davis argues that we have transitioned from a disinflationary era lasting over 40 years into one characterized by financial repression, which he defines as higher inflation. Tracing this shift back to the post-World War II era when debt levels were unsustainable, Davis contends that recent financial crises were not caused by COVID but rather by 'shenanigans' in financial markets. With interest rates reaching historic lows by 2020, Davis predicts that inflation for the next generation will be between 5% and 10%, and interest rates will significantly increase from past decade levels. This transition to financial repression is a response to politicians, central bankers, and bankers' desire to maintain inflation rather than risk deflation.







The conversation also touches upon China's economic shift from manufacturing to consumer industries and property development, expressing concern over the large number of unsold homes in China despite continued commodity demand. Mr. Davis discusses the historical perspective of asset classes, emphasizing substantial returns from stocks, bonds, and property over recent decades but anticipates declining value as interest rates rise. He advocates investing in commodities as a long-term strategy.







Jonathan then discusses the current state of the housing market, despite higher interest rates and the end of fixed-rate mortgages, there hasn't been a significant impact on the housing market yet due to continued employment and low mortgage rates. He also touches upon commercial real estate, suggesting businesses have been able to mitigate costs by subletting unused space and private equity firms delaying effects of the market downturn.







Jonathan shares insights on oil prices' correlation with inflation, anticipating a rebound and potentially reaching $200 within the next few years due to insufficient production relative to economic growth, causing significant drops in energy stocks. He encourages staying informed, adapting investment strategies, remaining cautious, and avoiding excessive greed.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - The End of an Era13:05 - Real Rates & Growth20:10 - De-China-Fication23:15 - Lending & Global Growth27:32 - Real Vs. Nominal Returns29:00 - Dow Long-Term Chart30:49 - 10-Year Treasury Chart36:24 - Housing Markets & Rates41:34 - Commercial Real Estate45:10 - Uranium Thoughts51:20 - Miners & Juniors55:34 - Crude Oil & Energy1:00:53 - Commodities & HODL Gold1:05:57 - Eastern Metal Buying1:08:30 - Maintaining Objectivity1:10:44 - Uranium & Wrap Up







Talking Points from This Episode









* Davis argues for a new era of financial repression, characterized by higher inflation, due to unsustainable debt levels since the post-World War II era.







* Significant price increases for uranium, gold, and silver miners, and global energy in the next one to three years due to low supply and increasing demand.







* Politicians and central bankers will maintain inflation rather than risk deflation, which would benefit consumers but negatively impact the wealthy.









Guest Links:Website: https://jonathandaviswm.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavisTwitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts







Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Plan...

Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show.







Lyn discusses abundant and scarce things in investing, focusing on the era of fiscal dominance that has led to bonds becoming abundant. This is due to large budget deficits and private debt being transferred to the public sector. The implications include higher average fiscal-driven inflation and potential impact on asset prices and tax receipts.







The Federal Reserve's ability to perfectly tune the economy to avoid recession for the next decade is questioned. In emerging markets, stocks may rise in local currency but decrease in hard money terms during recessions. The U.S., however, is experiencing fiscal dominance where public debt exceeds GDP, making it harder to fight inflation and slow down borrowing. While interest rates can help make a country's currency attractive or reduce borrowing demand, raising interest rates results in ballooning expenses, offsetting disinflationary forces. The commercial real estate sector is heavily impacted, but travel companies, seniors, and wealthy individuals may benefit from higher interest rates.







Lyn discusses the SVB bank crisis in 2023, suggesting that the Fed might prioritize saving banks or the Treasury market over controlling inflation, limiting monetary policy flexibility. The potential outcomes of interest rate cuts include growth and demand for commodities but less effectiveness due to fiscal dominance. She emphasizes energy exposure as a hedge against inflationary pressures.







Investment strategies include owning assets related to dense forms of energy in the energy sector, focusing on demographics, aging workforces, and understanding China's labor supply and demand. Alternative investment portfolios like the permanent portfolio and IV portfolio deviate from the traditional 60-40 stock-bond split by including gold and commodities for diversification.







The development of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as inevitable due to its size and liquidity, but risks include hacks and confiscations. Developed countries generally accept Bitcoin as a store of value while regulating its use as a medium of exchange. The importance of building tools to make Bitcoin more efficient for users is emphasized.







Lyn's book, "Broken Money," discusses global financial system issues, with countries relying on the US dollar facing negative consequences if it devalues or if the US manipulates currencies. Running large structural trade deficits is necessary but comes with negative effects such as decreased export competitiveness and de-industrialization. The shift towards more neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin in response to unreliable US dollars is emphasized, along with considering multiple variables and being data-dependent.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Bonds, Rates, & Inflation8:42 - Fed and Recessions13:30 - Fiscal Dominance & Stability19:28 - Contrasting the 1940s23:06 - Feds Blinks at Bank Crisis25:54 - Deficits & Debt Rollover29:54 - Rate Cuts & Outcomes31:52 - Easing and Hard Assets33:14 - Energy Exposure?37:40 - Demographics & Demand41:26 - China & Manufacturing44:42 - Labor & Underinvestment47:20 - Skills & Semiconductors50:00 - Portfolio & Reallocating53:20 - Bitcoin ETFs & Impacts?56:06 - Capital Controls & Walls59:23 - Dollar & Broken Money1:03:57 - Wrap Up







Talking Points From This Episode









* Fiscal dominance, inflation, and importance of shifting to neutral assets.







* Understanding multiple forces in macroeconomics and being data-dependent.







* A Shift to Neutral Assets in a World of Fiscal Dominance and Unreliable Currencies

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob is founder of 321gold and 321energy.com, and a former Marine Corps fighter pilot during Vietnam. Moriarty believes the year 2024 could be catastrophic due to geopolitical issues and a greater financial crisis but sees opportunities in gold and silver, which have broken out and are expected to continue for the next decade. He emphasizes sentiment and China's control of the gold market as key drivers of their prices. Moriarty discusses potential peace in the Middle East after Israel's conflict with Iran, questioning the sustainability of the US sending large aid packages due to bankruptcy.







Moriarty advocates for ignoring external factors like interest rates, currencies, and politics when investing in gold and silver, using sentiment as a useful tool. He highlights China's significant impact on the gold market and the potential negative vote against US treasuries and the dollar. Moriarty expresses concerns about rising interest rates and their impact on real estate markets, especially commercial property. He also discusses the recent surge in base metals as undervalued commodities and a shift towards commodities from overvalued assets like stocks.







Bob emphasizes the importance of understanding current developments in economy and society, including immigration policies, corruption, and diplomacy. He criticizes the increasing divide between ordinary people and the establishment and advocates for conversation and understanding between opposing sides. He criticizes US foreign policy in Ukraine and advocates for diplomacy to resolve conflicts. He also discusses the impact of misinformation on society and expresses skepticism towards media narratives.







Talking Points From This Episode









* He sees 2024 as a potential crisis year but believes in gold opportunities; emphasizes sentiment and China's influence.







* Relative calm in the Middle East is possible after the recent Israel-Iran conflict, but US aid sustainability questioned.







* Misinformation if not outright falsehoods in the mainstream media and the importance of diploamcy globally.









Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - A Catastrophic Year?2:00 - Whose Driving Metals?4:52 - Warning Signals5:43 - Oil Prices & Iran9:10 - Balance of Power13:30 - Aid to Ukraine19:37 - Measuring Sentiment21:46 - Lessons in FOMO23:24 - Eastern Gold Shift25:10 - Mortgages & Real Estate27:19 - Base Metal Indications28:37 - Government & Corruption30:57 - Reasons for Optimism32:12 - Diplomacy & Conversation37:53 - Alt Media & Opinions43:53 - Wrap Up







Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3







Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.