Money, Markets & New Age Investing Greg Weldon

The S+P 500 has risen by +50.8% since the October 2022 low.  The XLK S+P Information-Technology ETF has risen by +88.0% since the October 2022 low.   And since just last October the NASDAQ-100 Index has risen by +31.2% .
The last six-months of this massive bull move in US stocks has been driven by three themes: 


·       Expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024 
·       AI and chip stocks 
·       The perception that the Consumer is "strong" 

Two of these themes have IMPLODED, and the other has run its near-term course, leaving the US stock market VERY VULNERABLE to profit-taking and an economic-reality-check sell-off. Get the inside scoop and prepare to take some "protective" and "defensive" moves. 


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Twenty-two global Central Banks held meetings this past week to decide what, if any, changes they would make to their monetary policy stance. More than one-third of those Central Banks (8) voted to CUT their official short-term Policy Rate, TWICE as many as voted to raise rates (4), while 10 of 22 left policy unchanged.

Of those Central Banks that left rates unchanged, the majority of them communicated belief that they would be cutting rates this summer or fall, as global monetary officialdom is starting to ease policy before inflation actually declines to their target rate, thereby "acquiescing" to higher general rates of inflation, via higher lows to be set in year over year inflation rates. 

Greg discusses all of this and then some, particularly as it relates to the US FOMC and how their move this week to prepare markets for EASING of "Quantitative Tightening" is the first step towards a full-blown policy reversal, which in turn is supporting asset prices, specifically stock indexes and commodity markets, like Energy. Listen to find out which specific markets to which Greg is allocating his client's money. 
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You have heard me warning about a coming crisis in US Commercial Real-Estate and how it would link to Small Banks, not only here in the US, but around the world. Moreover, I warned in December about Small Bank Balance Sheets, and cited that as the likely REASON WHY the Fed abandoned their hawkish rhetoric at the year-end meeting. 
 
You have heard me warning about a coming Consumer credit problem, particularly as it relates to out of control borrowing via Credit Cards, and how this would link to the global economy in a way that would force the "dovish" hands of Central Banks, particularly the US Fed. 

Please welcome to the stage that infamous pirate..."Captain Crunch", here to lead us into the next big macro-economic phase, a Credit Crunch and Consumer Cocoon, here in the US, in the UK and across much of Europe.

In today's episode Greg will detail the data, explain the dynamic, explore the possible macro-scenarios, and talk end-game as it relates to where specifically to invest your money (including Info-Tech, Healthcare, Uranium, Food Commodities and Bitcoin or Ethereum) in order to stay out of harm's way, and out of the reach of...Captain Crunch!


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In Episode #3 of Season Two Greg offers an in depth look at three countries which reflect the three primary and dominant macro-economic "backdrops" - Stagflation, Inflation and Deflation.

Each of these locations offer crystal clear evidence within the data and the market positioning and thus gives us clues as to how these scenarios may emerge in other countries, including the Anglo-nations (AKA USA, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia).

Subsequently we can use these three examples to provide a roadmap to aid in deploying risk capital, depending on which of the three primary macro-economic themes becomes dominant.

Greg also digs into the latest US macro-data, and more importantly offers his thoughts on investment "themes" for 2024, focusing on global equity markets, US industry-sectors, and commodities, including Gold, Uranium, and Ethereum-Bitcoin.

Moreover, if you wish to receive a FREE copy of Greg's "Gold Guru 2024 Year-Ahead Outlook Special" (as he offers at the end of today's episode) shoot us an email at "sales@weldononline.com" 


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What Does the FOMC Know, That the Markets Don't? 

Alternative Title: "Jerome Powell goes Mandelbaum on the Market!"
 
Indeed, Jerome Powell and the FOMC stunned markets last week as the US Central Bank did NOT verbally "protest" the uber-dovish Fed Funds Rates "priced into" the futures market for end-2024 (roughly 4.50%, down from 5.00% in October), but rather went DEEPER and MORE DOVISH, with projections that put the FF Policy Rate BELOW 4% by the end of next year. 
The Fed went "Mandelbaum" on the markets..."taking it up a notch", like the famed supporting character in the US sitcom "Seinfeld", an 80-year-old workout guru and Jerry's personal trainer Izzy Mandelbaum.


But WHY?
 
With inflation at 3% to 4%, the 5.5% FF Policy Rate is "sufficiently restrictive", and thus right where they want it to be. Moreover, inflation remains sticky in many staples and embedded in housing and services. So WHY the DRAMATIC and abrupt 180-degree about-face in monetary policy?
 
Does the Fed know something the markets don't?


Perhaps, The Fed is moving to protect something other than the economy...maybe there is an issue with credit conditions and the BANKS?


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What began as the smallest of dovish comments among a broad range of hawkish “Fedspeak” from Chairman Powell in his post-FOMC press conference earlier this month, became a rallying cry for many market participants wanting to celebrate their belief that Fed is positioning itself to REFILL the proverbial monetary "punch bowl“… 
 
 ...and...that the risk-on PARTY has started again, after eighteen months of inflation-induced sobriety. 
 
Already the forward short-term interest rate contracts in the EU, UK, and US, are "pricing-in" CUTS in Policy Rates next year. In the US there is now a chance, small as it may be, that the Fed will cut rates in March. Naturally, this is ludicrous. In fact, the Fed might view the market's thirst for the punch bowl to be refilled as RISK to their fight to tame inflation. The market itself could be the risk point that keeps the Fed tighter, longer, at least until the economy cracks wide open, the odds of which are rising dramatically given the recent macro-data deluge (CPI, Retail Sales, NY Fed). 
 
Plowing back into US equities may not be the optimum play here. The Fed IS likely done hiking, but the focus around the world is NOT on the Fed, as MANY global Central Banks are already cutting rates and easing monetary policy, many of them in Emerging Markets. In terms of investment there are several favorable markets, all are commodity and natural resource producer/exporters who have a trade relationship with China and a currency that has stabilized, and/or broken out to the upside versus the USD. 
 
So rather than be passive and indexed to the US stock market. I would rather focus on non-USD currencies, specific global Bond markets, Emerging market stock indexes, Commodities...and...the Real Estate sector! 

Indeed, I ask, could Real Estate be THE hottest "sector" in 2024? The answer could very well be a resounding YES! 
 
Listen to Episode One of Season Two to learn why I say all this, with the knowledge that ALL of the above alternatives to the US stock market are outperforming the US S+P 500 Index right now, and all of them stand to benefit if the Fed does in fact lighten the pressure on the monetary brakes, “Fedspeak” wise.


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