Telltales Mike

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES
Welcome to another episode of Telltales. Join our hosts, Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti, as they discuss cashflow and its pivotal role in investing. Here’s a breakdown of what we covered in this episode:
[00:00:34] Meet Mike & Jason in Omaha at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting
Discussion on the upcoming Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha.
Networking opportunities at the event.
[00:01:40] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND
Analysis of the global oil supply with a focus on surplus capacity held off by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Impact of reduced Russian oil production due to ongoing conflicts.
Implications on oil prices if withheld supplies were released.
[00:02:24] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY
Examination of U.S. natural gas supply and demand.
Discussion on production curtailment by major producers in the Marcellus Shale.
Insights into the natural gas market dynamics and pricing.
[00:03:49] Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES
Overview of U.S. government revenues and expenses.
Discussion on the recent foreign aid package and its impact on the federal budget.
Concerns about the lack of financial offsets in government spending.
[00:04:34] Exhibit A: Taxes
Debate on the feasibility and constitutionality of a proposed wealth tax.
Potential implications of tax changes on investment and economic growth.
[00:05:51] Exhibit A: Federal Funds Rate Held Steady
Commentary on the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate.
Discussion on real interest rates and their impact on the economy and investments.
[00:11:07] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA
Earnings updates and significant news from major tech companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.
Strategic movements within these companies and their market implications.
[00:11:20] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ - Tesla's China Strategy
Discussion on Tesla's data management strategy in China.
Comparison with TikTok's data handling and implications for user privacy and corporate strategy.
[00:13:31] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ , AAPL 0.00%↑ - Consumer Preferences in China
Analysis of consumer behavior in China, particularly regarding domestic vs. foreign brands.
Impact on companies like Tesla and Apple.
[00:14:49] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ Reduces Supercharger Station Growth and Cuts Staff
Tesla's strategic decision to reduce growth in supercharger stations.
Discussion on the economic and strategic factors leading to this decision.
[00:20:23] Page 1: Is Google falling behind OpenAI?
Exploration of Google's position in AI development compared to OpenAI.
Discussion on strategic decisions in technology and AI by major corporations.
[00:21:54] Page 1: GOOG 0.00%↑ - Will Android Steal Marketshare from Apple?
Predictions and analysis on the potential market shifts between Android and Apple devices.
Impact of AI features on consumer preferences and market dynamics.
[00:24:09] Page 1: AAPL 0.00%↑ - When is WWDC?
Announcement of the upcoming Apple Worldwide Developers Conference and expectations.
[00:24:26] Page 1: AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ Cloud Growth on backs of NVDA 0.00%↑
Discussion on the growth of cloud services at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, facilitated by NVIDIA technology.
Insights into the financial and strategic impacts of these developments.
[00:27:22] Page 3: NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML
Detailed analysis of NVIDIA's financial performance and market position.
Comparison with other major tech firms like AMD, Intel, TSMC, and ASML.
[00:31:19] Page 15: PFE 0.00%↑ turning things around?
Examination of Pfizer's recent financial performance and strategic directions.
Discussion on the broader pharmaceutical industry and market trends.
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This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a re

SHOWNOTES
00:01:05 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND: Discussion on recent geopolitical events affecting oil prices and their impact on global oil supply and demand.
00:04:03 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY: Analysis of the U.S. natural gas market, including production rates and future demand projections.
00:07:16 Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES: Discussion on U.S. government spending, revenue trends, and fiscal policies.
00:08:33 Page 1: TSLA - Earnings Review & FSD 12: Overview of Tesla's earnings, Full Self-Driving technology, and market implications.
00:15:49 Page 1: TSLA - Tesla Full Self Driving Revenue Model: Discussion on Tesla's Full Self-Driving revenue model and pricing strategies.
00:17:12 Page 1: TSLA - Tesla Datacenter: Insights into Tesla's data center strategy and its potential impacts on business efficiency.
00:18:43 Page 1: Will Tesla license FSD to other auto manufacturers?: Discussion on the potential for Tesla to license its Full Self-Driving technology to other manufacturers.
00:20:45 Page 1: Tesla FSD Gross Margin: Analysis of the financial implications of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology on its business model.
00:22:50 Page 15: Vertex's Promising Pipeline ($VRTX): Discussion on Vertex Pharmaceutical's pipeline and strategic initiatives.
00:26:52 TSLA 0.00%↑ vs VRTX 0.00%↑ - who could double first?: Comparative analysis of Tesla and Vertex Pharmaceutical's market potential and growth prospects.


This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes
This episode of Telltales covers several key topics related to investing, energy markets, and the pharmaceutical industry. Here's a summary of the main discussions with timestamps for the chapters:
[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND
The hosts discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and how the withdrawal of Israeli troops could impact oil prices. Hunt mentions that with Russian oil production down by at least 1 million barrels per day due to the Ukraine conflict, and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE holding back supply, the oil market remains vulnerable to supply shocks, keeping prices elevated in the mid-$80s range.
[00:03:45] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY
The conversation shifts to the natural gas market, where prices have been holding up well. Hunt highlights the potential for increased power demand from data centers, especially those with GPUs, which could drive natural gas consumption higher, supporting prices. He also notes the supply discipline from major producers like EQT, which has curtailed production to balance the market.
[00:05:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES
The hosts analyze the macroeconomic environment, discussing the impact of higher inflation, continued government deficit spending, and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Hunt raises concerns about the potential effect of higher interest rates on stock market valuations, as was observed in 2022 when valuations of high-growth companies declined significantly. [1]
[00:08:15] Page 1: Higher For Longer impact on Tesla
The discussion turns to Tesla, with the hosts debating the company's valuation in the context of higher interest rates.
[00:16:27] Page 13: JPM/MS/GS
Hunt analyzes the financial performance and valuations of major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. He highlights their ability to generate consistent free cash flow, buy back shares, and pay dividends, which has resulted in attractive returns for long term holders of the stocks.
[00:22:44] Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX
The hosts discuss the challenges faced by large pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer in replacing revenue from expiring patents and developing new blockbuster drugs. They also compare the prospects of Moderna and BioNTech, the companies behind the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and their efforts to develop personalized cancer vaccines and other therapies. Jason and Mike share their perspectives on which company might be better positioned for success in this area.



This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:39 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND 00:03:08 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY 00:05:25 Exhibit A: US GOVT REVENUES AND EXPENSES 00:06:43 China Risk Discussion 00:07:33 Page 20: UBER / DASH / ABNB / FIVE / ETSY 00:08:24 Page 19: UNH / CVS / REGN / BIIB / LLY 00:09:12 Page 18: FCX / ALB / CF / NEE 00:10:26 Page 17: FDX / UPS / NKE / COST 00:11:23 Page 16: MCD / SBUX / CMG / CELH / HLT 00:12:36 Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX 00:13:30 Page 14: CAT / DE / GNRC / TDG / FAST 00:15:07 Page 13: JPM / MS / GS 00:15:41 Page 12: AR / EQT / CHK / AM 00:16:13 Page 11: EOG / MGY / PR / FANG 00:16:38 Page 10: KMI / EPD / ET / WES 00:16:44 Page 9: XOM / CVX / COP / OXY / LNG 00:17:37 Page 8: WMT / TGT / LOW / HD / KMX 00:18:28 Page 7: MA / V / PYPL 00:18:51 Page 6: T / VZ / TMUS 00:19:16 Page 5: CHTR / CMCSA 00:19:23 Page 4: NFLX / DIS / META 00:20:49 Page 3: NVDA / AMD / INTC / TSMC / ASML 00:24:40 Page 2: MSFT / CRM / SNOW / ORCL 00:24:59 Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA 00:29:33 Page 1: Discussion on whether Tesla could trade down to $100/share valuation. $UBER $DASH $ABNB $FIVE $ETSY $UNH $CVS $REGN $BIIB $LLY $FCX $ALB $CF $NEE $FDX $UPS $NKE $COST $MCD $SBUX $CMG $CELH $HLT $PFE $MRNA $LNTH $BNTX $VRTX $CAT $DE $GNRC $TDG $FAST $JPM $MS $GS $AR $EQT $CHK $AM $EOG $MGY $PR $FANG $KMI $EPD $ET $WES $XOM $CVX $COP $OXY $LNG $WMT $TGT $LOW $HD $KMX $MA $V $PYPL $T $VZ $TMUS $CHTR $CMCSA $NFLX $DIS $META $NVDA $AMD $INTC $TSMC $ASML $MSFT $CRM $SNOW $ORCL $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $TSLA



This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com