185 episodes

A conversational podcast for the less hardcore rationalist, who wants to level-up their rational skills while having fun.

The Bayesian Conspiracy The Bayesian Conspiracy

    • Society & Culture
    • 4.7 • 41 Ratings

A conversational podcast for the less hardcore rationalist, who wants to level-up their rational skills while having fun.

    171 – All About AGP

    171 – All About AGP

    Tailcalled gives us the down low on a variation of the popularly discussed (if not that widely liked) transgender typology – autogynephilia (or AGP). Unfortunately, due to technical difficulties, Jace was only on for part of the episode and our software didn’t appreciate the confusion and dropped his audio entirely.



    Tailcalled’s blog:  https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/

    Some specific links from Tailcalled:

    Some of my better or more important or more relevant posts that you might want to link: Autogynephilia is not a natural abstraction

    (My attempt to explain the thing I said at the end about why we will never get a better understanding of AGP)

    A dataset of common AGP/AAP fantasies

    (To get an idea of what AGP can be like, with the caveat that most people in the AGP debates focus on different and rarer forms of AGP)

    Using instrumental variables to test the direction of causality between autogynephilia and gender dissatisfaction

    (Some of the advanced causal inference stuff I’ve experimented with to study AGP; to an extent I now think my idea was flawed – I have other blog posts talking about the flaws – but it might be nice to include as an illustration)

    The mathematical consequences of a toy model of gender transition

    (I sort of explained that model in the interview but it might not have been very clear, so making it formal helps)

    Meta-attraction cannot account for all autogynephiles’ interest in men

    (The post that really marked the start of my dissatisfaction with Blanchardians)



    0:00:00 Intro/Main Topic

    1:26:00 LW posts

    1:43:41 Thank the Patron!



    Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?





    Also merch!



    Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast



    LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:





    Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych

    A Failed Just-So Story

    Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

    But There’s Still A Chance, Right?

    The Fallacy of Gray

    • 1 hr 45 min
    170 – By George, The Rent Is Too Damn High!

    170 – By George, The Rent Is Too Damn High!

    Eneasz drops a primer on Georgist Land Value Taxes. All increases in productivity will be capture by rising rents for as long as mankind exists, unless we find a way to prevent landlords from capturing all the benefits of rising land value. Henry George found the way to do this.

    Source post: Book Review: Progress & Poverty

    Follow-ups that we barely touched on, but include a lot more:

    Part I – Is Land Really a Big Deal?

    Part II – Can Land Value Tax be Passed on to Tenants?

    Part III – Can Unimproved Land Value be Accurately Assessed Separately from Buildings?

    Also in this episode:

    Eliezer supports Dignity Points, a scoring system for humanity.

    Afghan soldiers were shocked to learn about taxes in the U.S.

    0:00:40 Feedback

    0:06:15 Main Topic

    1:33:48 LW posts

    1:57:34 Thank the Patron



    Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?





    Also merch!



    Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast



    LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:





    The American System and Misleading Labels

    Stop Voting For Nincompoops

    Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

    Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych

    A Failed Just-So Story

    • 1 hr 58 min
    169 – S&E BS re AGI

    169 – S&E BS re AGI

    Steven and Eneasz discuss the latest timeline shifts regarding the advent of superhuman general intelligence. Then in the LW posts we got greatly sidetracked by politics (stupid mind-killer!).

    Links:

    Two-year update on my personal AI timelines on LessWrong

    Robert Wiblin on kissing your kids

    Lex Fridman podcast

    Jack Clark (AI policy guy) on AI policy

    Scott Alexander on slowing AI progress

    Guide to working in AI policy and strategy

    0:00:42 Feedback

    0:08:20 Main Topic

    1:13:29 LW posts

    2:11:40 Thank the Patron



    Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?





    Also merch!



    Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast



    LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:





    My Strange Beliefs

    Posting on Politics

    The Two-Party Swindle

    Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

    The American System and Misleading Labels

    Stop Voting For Nincompoops

    • 2 hr 12 min
    168 – Unions Are Governments

    168 – Unions Are Governments

    We speak with Levi/Ferb, learning about labor law in the USA. Turns out it’s not what we thought.

    Links:

    What would a general strike look like today?

    Biden intervenes in railroad contract to block strike

    Truckers strike at Port of Oakland

    Taft–Hartley Act

    A People’s History of the United States

    Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog

    United Mine Workers of America to pay more than $13 million in compensation to an Alabama coal company

    African American Workers Historic Struggle Against Segregation

    Labor News:

    Who Gets the Bird?

    PayDay Report

    Working People Podcast

    “You are GPT-3,” a long-form prompt directly instructing GPT-3 on desired usage of a scratchpad to suppress hallucinatory answers

    Craiyon

    0:00:01 Main Topic

    2:08:40 Feedback

    2:14:46 LW posts

    2:40:03 Thank the Patron



    Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?





    Also merch!



    Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast



    LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:





    To Lead, You Must Stand Up

    Cultish Countercultishness

    Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

    My Strange Beliefs

    Posting on Politics

    The Two-Party Swindle

    • 2 hr 41 min
    167 – Jugaad Ethics

    167 – Jugaad Ethics

    A Jugaad is like a hack that combines a new thing that doesn’t work anymore with an old thing that sorta worked, as a temporary solution. Now do it for Ethics.

    (note: due to technical issue, the last 3 minutes of the main topic audio quality is crappy. sorry.)

    The Primary Article – Jugaad Ethics



    Also mentioned:

    Random article about jugaad Eneasz found

    Who Should Pay On A Date?

    Pregnancy is Body Horror

    Red Plenty

    TradFam as Startup

    YouTube vids to get started on doing sex better

    Liberal Elite minority rule

    Feedback – Friendship is Optimal text, and FiO Audio on YouTube

    Utopia, LOL?

    What Lies Dreaming free online

    0:02:33 Feedback

    0:06:05 Main Topic – Jugaad Ethics

    1:25:22 LW posts

    1:40:56 Thank the Patron



    Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?





    Also merch!



    Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast



    LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:





    On Expressing Your Concerns

    Lonely Dissent

    Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

    To Lead, You Must Stand Up

    Cultish Countercultishness

    • 1 hr 42 min
    166 – Getting Lucky

    166 – Getting Lucky

    Luck is the most power force in the universe, and leaving power untapped is not very rational.

    Searching for Outliers

    How to Get Lucky

    Also mentioned:

    Feedback – It’s Probably Not Lithium

    The audio version of It’s Probably Not Lithium from the LessWrong Curated Podcast

    The entirety of the LessWrong Curated Podcast

    Friendship is Optimal

    Things you’re allowed to do

    Micro-Marriages

    Bad At Marketing? Eneasz’s novel What Lies Dreaming,

    and Substack DeathIsBad

    0:00:36 Feedback

    0:26:30 Main Topic – Outliers and Luck

    1:36:39 LW posts

    1:49:52 Thank the Patron



    Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?





    Also merch!



    Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast



    LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:





    The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy

    Asch’s Conformity Experiment

    Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

    On Expressing Your Concerns

    Lonely Dissent

    • 1 hr 51 min

Customer Reviews

4.7 out of 5
41 Ratings

41 Ratings

ChinaTim ,

Good podcast

I greatly enjoy this podcast. I liken it to being invited to listen in on a conversation between friends concerning the application of rational thinking to a variety of interesting topics. It can meander at times, but so do conversations. BTW, welcome to the podcast Jess. I appreciate your contributions.

WingsOnTheBus ,

Unadulterated ingroup fun

If, like jagskajouska and myself, you live in the middle of nowhere but need rationalist discourse in your life, this podcast will create utility for you. Eneasz and Steven and their guests are also upbeat and interesting and generally fun to listen to as they ease you into topics you’d heard about but were too afraid to go digging around in. Also may introduce you to slatestarcodex and giving what we can and make you a generally better person. (these are all things that happened to me, at least)

happycamper666_ ,

Interesting and fun to listen to!

Just found this podcast a few weeks ago and I really like the various topics they touch on. I would like to consider myself a rationalist, but far from expert, and enjoy listening to their ideas and opinions! Their conversations are funny and approachable and I appreciate the links and info they provide on their website and subreddit.

You Might Also Like

Wesley Fenza
Sean Carroll | Wondery
LessWrong
Christopher Kavanagh and Matthew Browne
Tamler Sommers & David Pizarro
Michael Shermer