300 episodes

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press) and The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press).

The Dividend Cafe The Bahnsen Group

    • Investing
    • 4.8, 185 Ratings

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press) and The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press).

    Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 11

    Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 11

    Market futures were screaming higher yet again when I woke up at 3:30am PT this morning, and if the headlines were to be believed (they often aren’t in financial media), it was because the market was reacting to Russia’s claim to have a working vaccine for COVID-19. The market opened 300 points or so, stayed up most of the day, but then sold off late in the day (dropping from +300 to -100).

    The Nasdaq and Big Tech were actually down all day today, even when the Dow was up 300, and the Nasdaq ended off 1.7% today. Energy, Financials, and REIT’s were still positive on the day. The market was not rallying on Russia vaccine news, in case you were wondering, and today was an extremely mixed bag of conflicting signals and confusions.
    COVID Health Information

    • So speaking of that Russian vaccine registration, here are the facts. First, we are talking about Putin and Russia. Let’s just leave that out there as the fact on which all other facts sit. Second, the registration is conditional; trials are actually still ongoing. Third, production has not yet begun. Fourth, no trial details or doctor/scientist reports have been released, let alone peer-reviewed. Fifth, would you take this vaccine?

    • The total number of Americans hospitalized WITH COVID-19 (which is categorically different from being hospitalized BECAUSE OF COVID-19) has dropped to below 50,000 people nationwide.

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 12 min
    Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook August 10, 2020

    Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook August 10, 2020

    This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from August 10, 2020.

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 47 min
    Price Discovery and the Human Spirit

    Price Discovery and the Human Spirit

    In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will:

    Summarize this week’s action in the market, with a summary of the better-than-expected July jobs report
    Look at the intense pursuit for a COVID vaccine and what that means for markets
    Add a little detail and caveat to the current market rally, and big tech’s role within it!
    Discuss what it will taken to energize midstream energy
    Correct the record on Q2 GDP growth
    Think through the growing tensions with China
    Simulate the stimulus
    Look under the hood of the current state of the economy (pretty extensively), covering manufacturing, auto sales, hotel traffic, restaurant traffic, and all the things …
    Politics & Money – the polls are tightening, and we look at a long-held theory about predicting the Presidential winner …
    Chart of the Week – our cup runneth over with optimism for dividend growth, thanks to present conditions, and past lessons

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 23 min
    Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 6

    Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 6

    The market was pointing down over 100 points in the morning futures this morning, but reversed into positive territory when the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 1.18 million vs. the 1.42 million expected (the lowest weekly claims number since the March lockdowns began). After a grind throughout the day, and this time led by technology, the market closed up 185 points.

    COVID Health Information
    • New cases were down 25% week over week and, once again, all the talk is around what data may be missing with various weather and tech challenges around the country. Testing itself is down 20% and I am now in both camps as to why that is – that the decreased testing is both a reflection of improved conditions (less symptoms means less test demand), and some glitches and delays around weather and capacity, etc.

    • One analyst I adore postulated that less people are getting tested because they have seen media reports how long lines and delays to get tested (and get results). I am not sure what to make of that, but I can’t rule it out.

    • With a h/t to the reader who turned me on to this, I am shocked that the Clark County, Nevada data (i.e. Las Vegas) is not getting any kind of national attention (okay, I am not actually shocked).

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 14 min
    Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday August 5

    Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday August 5

    The market rallied 375 points today, again closing at its highest point of the day as late trading added momentum to the market. Clearly expectations are high for a stimulus deal, there was a bit of curve widening helping banks today, and earnings season was substantially better than had been anticipated. I would love to credit the vastly improving COVID picture with some of the Dow move higher, but the COVID challenges this summer didn’t do much to harm the market, so I don’t think one can have it both ways.

    (Note the time ledger on the Dow chart; I started today on the eastern time zone but closed the day on pacific)

    The ADP jobs report did show 167,000 new jobs month over month, but one would think the number would be higher given the losses of the lockdown. The strong comeback number in June versus this more tepid comeback number in July seems to indicate a slowdown in re-hiring, not surprising given the policy measures taken in July.

    As is often the case, I can’t explain why but today’s missive has been one of my favorite to prepare.

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 17 min
    Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 4

    Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 4

    The market was up 164 points today, though the % move up in the S&P and the Nasdaq was less. There was a little move up to start the day, then a flat range for most of the day, followed by a dip, and then a rally into the close. My own feeling is that investors are a little hesitant to be unexposed into a close out of fear that a stimulus deal may get announced while markets are closed … (it isn’t impossible, but I doubt that it is imminent).

    The “hurricane” set to come through NYC turned out to be a rain shower, and something tells me this won’t be the last time a doom & gloom prediction for New York City turns out to be wrong this year.

    Speaking of NYC, they have LESS THAN a 1% positivity rate right now with high levels of testing, and that positivity rate has been less than 2% for almost two months! Their new cases are almost not registering at all (57 yesterday, same as some small towns in the midwest). Hospitalizations were just 15 yesterday – again, 15 is a fraction of what towns 1/100th the size are experiencing. And mortalities have been zero many days recently, and not more than ten in a day for several weeks.

    So I am pleased to see all of this in NYC, and hopeful that it leads to steps towards economic revitalization, not the opposite. Now, with NYC’s health status out of the way, let’s jump everywhere else we normally go.

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 20 min

Customer Reviews

4.8 out of 5
185 Ratings

185 Ratings

Tolan_Chef ,

Fantastic.

I love David’s analysis. Non-hysterical, rational, and researched. I love him on Radio Free California also.

Brandon Dutcher ,

Thorough and practical

Really worth your time. Extremely thorough research and practical wisdom. Bahnsen is a steady hand at the wheel.

brprg ,

I look forward to these podcasts

David and his team don’t promise to help you get rich by timing the markets (quite the contrary) nor do they tickle your ear with the supposed next rising star.

I can only imagine the quantity of data David and his team devour in order to distill it down to the nuggets contained herein.

Thank you for your insightful, thoughtful analysis, which extends well beyond the market and even the economy- but into human nature.

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