The Julia La Roche Show Julia La Roche

"Reformed" hedge fund manager James Lavish, the author of The Informationist newsletter and founder/managing partner of The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, joins Julia La Roche on episode 174 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, the pockets of recession especially in the private sector, and a deep dive into the debt problem in the U.S. 



Links: 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish

The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/

The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/ 



Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro and welcome James Lavish

1:00 Macro view 

2:30 Pockets of recession, fiscal dominance, inflation

5:08 Highly manipulated numbers, CPI  

10:30 Deficit spending and the economy 

12:40 Debt spiral and why the U.S. is a ‘zombie’ 

17:20 They’re going to print so much money it’s going to shock people 

19:50 U.S. Treasuries 

28:15 Stagflation 

30:00 Dallas Fed survey: recession red flag? 

35:00 The government will continue to recklessly spend 

37:03 FOMC and jobs 

40:50 Parting thoughts, asset allocation

Dave Collum, Professor of organic chemistry at Cornell University and Zero Hedge Contributor, joins The Julia La Roche to share his views on the economy and markets. In this episode, Professor Collum makes a case that the market today looks “more insane than the dot-com bubble” and why we could be headed for a 40-year bear market.



Links: 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/DavidBCollum

Year-end review: https://peakprosperity.com/dave-collums-2023-year-in-review-down-some-dark-rabbit-holes/



Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro and welcome Dave Collum 

1:18 Lessons in chemistry 

7:00 Investing — bonds, equities, gold 

9:10 Gold 

14:47 Elizabeth Warren 

17:15 Financial crisis 

20:13 Case for a 40-year bear market 

21:30 Macro view — about to start a serious downturn and we’ve had no pain 

29:30 Demographics 

30:58 Tailwinds 

33:20 BRICs

36:40 Election 

42:02 How do you prepare for this macro environment + bear market thesis + end of American experiment 

45:00 Prepper

47:19 Bitcoin 

49:08 Performance this year — ‘an old man’s portfolio’ 

51:23 Not your typical Ivy League professor + campus culture today as someone who is “Trump tolerant” + cancel culture 

1:04:37 Optimism  

1:11:58 Closing 

John Cochrane, the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and former professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and, before that, the Department of Economics, joins Julia on episode 172. Professor Cochrane is the author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level book, and he writes the Grumpy Economist blog. and In this episode, Professor Cochrane discusses the current state of the US economy, the fiscal theory of the price level, the causes and challenges of inflation, and the concerning levels of government debt. He emphasizes the need for supply-side efficiency and fiscal discipline to sustain economic growth and control inflation. Cochrane also highlights the limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the importance of responsible fiscal policy in addressing the fiscal picture. He suggests reforming the tax code, social programs and reducing middle-class subsidies are necessary to ensure long-term sustainability. 

Cochrane concludes by emphasizing the need to pay attention to incentives and the interconnectedness of various policies. He also mentions the potential of AI and biotech to drive future growth and warns against stifling innovation.

Takeaways: 




The US economy is currently experiencing low unemployment and a bout of inflation caused by government stimulus.
The fiscal theory of the price level explains that money, government debt, and inflation are interconnected, and the quantity of money and government bonds both impact inflation.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has limitations in controlling inflation, and fiscal policy plays a crucial role in addressing inflation and government debt.
To fix the fiscal picture, it is necessary to reform the tax code, social programs, and reduce middle-class subsidies to ensure long-term sustainability.
Responsible fiscal policy, economic growth, and steady primary surpluses are essential to control inflation and maintain a stable economy. The US economy may be more fragile than it appears, with concerns about the ability to pay back debts and the difficulty of selling longer-term debt.
Forecasting inflation is challenging, and the Federal Reserve and other forecasters have often missed the mark. The mechanics of inflation are similar to the stock market, and there are risks of higher inflation in certain scenarios.
Fiscal dominance refers to the constraint on monetary policy caused by fiscal policy. The ability to control inflation through fiscal policy may be more challenging now.
The Federal Reserve was slow to act on inflation and needs to consider a wider range of scenarios and incentives in its decision-making process.
The biggest economic story in our lifetimes is long-term growth and the importance of embracing new technologies and innovation. Incentives play a crucial role in solving economic problems and driving growth.
Social programs and the tax code need to be examined together to understand the full impact on incentives and redistribution.
The interconnectedness of policies and the need to consider the whole system when addressing economic challenges.



Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/JohnHCochrane

Website: https://www.johnhcochrane.com/

Substack: https://substack.com/@grumpyeconomist

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Fiscal-Theory-Price-Level/dp/0691242240







Timestamps: 



00:00 Intro and welcome John Cochrane 

01:30 Macro picture and understanding inflation

04:00 We’re a supply-limited economy, more money and stimulus thrown down ratholes won’t make the economy grow 

05:30 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

11:35 Limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy

17:00 History lesson on 1970s, 1980s inflation 

19:00 Fiscal picture today and possible solutions 

25:00 The fragility of the US economy

31:00 More persistent inflation

37:55 Fiscal Dominance

41:00 Assessing th

Investor and entrepreneur Dave Friedberg, the CEO of The Production Board and CEO of Ohalo and co-host/"Bestie" on The All-In Podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 171 to discuss his company's breakthrough technology that could solve world hunger.



Ohalo, a startup that's been in stealth mode, recently filed a patent for its groundbreaking technology, Boosted Breeding. This novel, non-transgenic plant breeding system has the potential to revolutionize agriculture by sustainably increasing crop productivity and yields by 50 to 100%. After years of research by Ohalo's scientists, the technology has been proven effective across various crops. The technology can be applied to a wide range of food crops, including those that currently lack commercial seed systems, such as potatoes. With its significant potential to enhance food availability and sustainability, Ohalo's Boosted Breeding is poised to make a substantial impact on the global agricultural landscape. 



Links: 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/friedberg

Ohalo: https://ohalo.com/

The Production Board: https://www.tpb.co/

The All-In Pod: https://www.allinpodcast.co/

Episode 18 featuring Dave Friedberg: https://youtu.be/0ARf45HiS1M?si=yWFwnCPdJ1fv_Nxj



Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro and welcome back Dave Friedberg

1:42 Big picture + challenges facing humans today 

3:18 A new enlightenment or a new dark ages? 

6:33 Independent thought and understanding through reason 

9:15 Ohalo and Boosted Breeding breakthrough 

13:20 Going all in as CEO of Ohalo 

18:00 Results from Boosted Breeding 

22:44 Benefits to farmers 

27: 52 Potential impacts of the technology 

34:30 State of the economy, No. 1 issue is debt 

41:00 Optimism is technology and productivity gains 

45:17 Parting thoughts 

Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 170.

In this episode, Elliott discusses the macro picture and highlights that the economy is in an income-driven expansion, where people are spending out of their income, leading to sustainable growth. However, this income dominance is creating challenges for the Federal Reserve, as inflation remains elevated and nominal growth is strong. Elliott believes that the Fed will continue to collect more information before making any significant policy changes. 

He points out that assets are in an “air pocket” right now, and that the biggest risk for equity investors is the economy remains too strong, creating pressure on the bond market. He suggests that investors should consider holding more cash, allocate a portion to gold and commodities, and be cautious about stocks and bonds.



Links:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BobEUnlimited

Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/



Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Bob Elliott 

01:15 Macro picture today + income-driven economic expansion 

03:34 Different angles of looking at inflation 

06:11 Fed's policy outlook

09:15 Implications of higher for longer 

11:50 Long-end of the bond market is the critical driver of asset prices

14:47 The biggest risk for equity investors is the economy remains too strong that creates pressure on the bond market

16:00 Allocating in this setup 

18:30 We’re in an 'air pocket’ right now 

23:19 The Fed

25:50 Gold allocation and commodities 

30:10 Parting thoughts 

32:46 Confusion of the income-driven expansion

36:00 Recession

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 169 to discuss the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve, the impact of deficit spending, and the challenges faced by small businesses. 



Links:  

You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/ 

Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth



Timestamps: 



0:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth

1:15 Macro picture, assessment of the economy 

2:30 Massive inflation in assets 

3:20 Economy has been “window dressed” 

5:40 Deficit-driven economy 

8:30 Fiscal dominance 

10:45 Stagflation 

15:00 The Fed

17:00 Debt 

20:00 Gold 

24:00 State of small business today