The Living Market Podcast IG Wealth Management

The markets are often affected by seasonal factors that are understandable and predictable, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Retail activity is always strong in December, and there’s typically far more travel over the summer months. A similarly predictable but less understood market phenomenon, however, is the way that U.S. equity markets perform in the summer leading up to a U.S. presidential election. Philip explains why you might not want to sell during these months.

Both Wall Street and the White House are keen to see interest rate cuts this year, at the very least before the November election, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Recent weak consumer spending might force the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) hand, leading to rate cuts sooner rather than later. However, as Philip explains, while earlier rate cuts could be good news for the markets, they could bring about higher inflation. And is the Fed willing to risk that?

Contrarian indicators can often play a crucial role in forecasting market trends, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Last year, during peak economic pessimism, markets anticipated up to six interest rate cuts for this year, and those forecasts bolstered the markets. Now that we’re in a period of greater economic optimism, will that have a negative impact on the markets?

This summer, the price of crude oil could reach its highest level in almost two years, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. While this could be good for Canadian equities (which typically benefit from rising oil prices), it could have a negative effect on the markets in general. Philip explains how expensive oil drives up inflation, which could delay central bank interest rate cuts, which in turn could cause a drop in bond and equity markets.

In the first quarter of 2024 alone, the S&P 500 Index (containing the biggest U.S. companies) had 24 all-time highs. While some economic commentators believe that this rally is due a correction, simply because of the pace of its growth, IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson says don’t believe the hype. While volatility may pop up again, history and current economic data suggest that this rally still has legs.

In the first quarter of the year the economic landscape in Canada wasn't particularly stirring, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. He says, however, that equity markets pretty much everywhere are booming. This week Philip takes a closer look and highlights market action over the past three months.