Undertone Dan Schulz

Sebastian Mallaby is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Mallaby contributes to a variety of publications, including Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, the Washington Post, and the Financial Times, where he spent two years as a contributing editor. He’s the author of many of my favorite business books of all time including The Power Law on the history of Venture Capital, More Money Than God on the history of Hedge Funds, and The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan, which is one of my favorite biographies ever in any category.

Episode transcript

Timestamps

(0:00:00) Intro

(0:00:57) Business journalism

(0:04:11) Journalists as investors

(0:06:24) Most misunderstood part of the economy

(0:07:34) EMH

(0:11:49) Private v public markets

(0:17:27) Liquidity premium

(0:20:13) New asset management models

(0:26:12) Investor specialization

(0:37:42) Firm culture vs outlier talent

(0:41:00) Sequoia and FTX

(0:44:40) Meme stocks

(0:45:56) VC vs hedge funds

(0:50:38) Decision making at the Fed

(0:57:22) Evolution of the Fed

(1:01:34) Powell

(1:05:39) The Fed’s political independence

(1:07:13) History, Marx, Carlyle

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Links

- Follow Sebastian on X

- Sebastian's profile for the Council on Foreign Relations

- ⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Dan on X⁠⁠⁠⁠

- Subscribe to Undertone on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, or ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with ⁠⁠⁠Tyler Cowen⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Vitalik Buterin⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Scott Sumner⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Samo Burja⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Steve Hsu⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠more⁠⁠⁠

- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co

- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A

Nabeel is a Visiting Scholar at the Mercatus Center focused on developing an optimistic vision for AI, but as you’ll see in this conversation his breadth of interests goes about as wide as you can imagine. We talk about foreign film, interpreting the Iliad, Shakespeare, Wittgenstein, Derek Parfit, SF vs. NYC, AI, startups, and a lot more.

Episode transcript

Timestamps

(0:00:00) Intro

(0:00:49) Nabeel's favorite directors

(0:02:59) Underrated regions for film

(0:04:33) Nabeel's favorite Hollywood movies

(0:06:20) What makes a movie visually inspiring?

(0:09:34) Shakespeare on film

(0:10:31) Miyazaki

(0:12:03) Paris, Texas

(0:14:34) Jia Zhangke

(0:16:12) When is the movie better than the book?

(0:18:06) CGI

(0:18:44) Robert Bresson

(0:20:30) Love in film

(0:21:50) Director's Nabeel hasn't been able to "get"?

(0:22:34) Film theory

(0:24:15) Do the arts matter for founders?

(0:26:08) Going deep on great books

(0:29:31) The Iliad

(0:32:24) Tolstoy and Shakespeare

(0:34:21) Henry IV

(0:37:51) Shakespeare’s Sonnets

(0:38:56) Secondary literature

(0:41:18) Rene Girard

(0:42:57) Norman Rush's "Mating"

(0:44:27) Watership Down

(0:46:13) Harold Bloom

(0:48:04) Sci-fi

(0:49:32) Authors Nabeel hasn't been able to get

(0:50:35) Tech pessimists

(0:54:40) LLMs and the big questions

(0:57:59) Peter Hacker

(0:59:58) Wittgenstein

(1:01:47) Derek Parfit

(1:03:55) Moral intuition

(1:05:13) Do EAs make good CEOs or founders?

(1:07:20) Selfishness

(1:09:43) Favorite albums

(1:10:26) Beethoven

(1:11:27) Modernized opera

(1:12:38) NYC

(1:13:38) Chess

(1:14:31) California

(1:17:57) Fashion

(1:18:57) Eating in NYC

(1:19:52) Travel

(1:21:40) High school

(1:22:30) Twitter

(1:31:05) SF and AI

(1:32:38) AI doomers

(1:34:28) AGI timelines

(1:36:07) Nabeel's LLM usage

(1:43:42) Science brain vs founder brain

(1:47:48) Iteration vs conviction

(1:51:02) Is art education or entertainment?

(1:54:53) Sabbaticals

(1:58:53) What makes Nabeel imbalanced as a personality?

(2:00:05) Cold emails

(2:01:43) Meditating

(2:04:09) Regret

(2:05:16) Reminding yourself you will die

(2:08:04) GoCardless and startup culture

(2:13:37) Ideas vs execution

(2:16:10) Peter Thiel and Alex Karp?

(2:18:38) Philosophers in tech

(2:21:19) Learnings from Palantir

(2:23:18) Conclusion

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Links

- Follow Nabeel on X

- Nabeel's personal site

- ⁠⁠⁠Follow Dan on X⁠⁠⁠

- Subscribe to Undertone on ⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠, or ⁠⁠⁠⁠Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠

- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with ⁠⁠Tyler Cowen⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Vitalik Buterin⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Scott Sumner⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Samo Burja⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Steve Hsu⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠more⁠⁠

- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co

- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: ⁠⁠⁠https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A

Sarah and I talk about ultrasound neuromodluation, AI, and cancer research.

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Timestamps

(0:00:00) Intro

(0:00:22) Ultrasound neuromodulation

(0:02:33) Where is it in the tech lifecycle?

(0:03:48) Why should it be possible?

(0:07:44) How impactful will neuromodulation be?

(0:12:08) Startups working on neuromodulation

(0:16:33) Could we read minds?

(0:18:54) Public acceptance of neuromodulation

(0:27:36) Neuromodulation vs AI

(0:31:55) AI and drug discovery

(0:35:53) AI x-risk

(0:43:34) What would make Sarah worried about AI?

(0:47:00) Is human intelligence simple?

(0:51:01) Probability of solving aging

(0:56:28) Is cancer research doing something avoidably wrong?

(1:05:48) Are aesthetic judgements a kind of moral judgement?

(1:09:44) What should a 14 year old do to understand Sarah’s view of the world?

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Links

- Sarah’s blog

- Follow Sarah on X

- Sarah's post on ultrasound neuromodulation

- Sarah's post "Why I am not an AI Doomer"

- Sarah's post "Aesthetic judgements are moral judgements"

- ⁠⁠Follow Dan on X⁠⁠

- Subscribe to Undertone on ⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Apple⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠, or ⁠⁠⁠Substack⁠⁠⁠

- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with ⁠Tyler Cowen⁠, ⁠Vitalik Buterin⁠, ⁠Scott Sumner⁠, ⁠Samo Burja⁠, ⁠Steve Hsu⁠, and ⁠more⁠

- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co

- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: ⁠⁠https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A

Alexey and I talk about science, productivity, and utilitarianism.

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(00:23) How accessible should a good research paper be?

(03:47) Good taste

(07:07) What does Russia get right?

(12:05) Favorite Dostoyevsky novel

(14:16) Utilitarianism

(16:42) High IQ v genius

(17:59) Tyler Cowen's advice

(20:13) Bad science

(31:25) Productivity

(32:55) Updating beliefs

(35:18) Meditation

(37:53) Religion

(40:02) Starting a blog

(41:20) Video games

(42:48) Go outside

(45:19) David Goggins

(49:23) Advice

(51:04) True Detective

(56:05) Alpha in low status

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Links

- ⁠Alexey's blog⁠

- Follow ⁠Alexey on X⁠

- ⁠⁠Follow Dan on X⁠⁠

- Subscribe to Undertone on ⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Apple⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠, or ⁠⁠⁠Substack⁠⁠⁠

- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with ⁠Tyler Cowen⁠, ⁠Vitalik Buterin⁠, ⁠Scott Sumner⁠, ⁠Samo Burja⁠, ⁠Steve Hsu⁠, and ⁠more⁠.

- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co

- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: ⁠⁠https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A

Noah and I talk about Keynes' 15 hour work week, Piketty's r>g, economic development in Africa, Javier Milei, Anime, and more.

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Timestamps

(0:00:00) Intro

(0:00:30) Noah’s intellectual influences

(0:10:20) Javier Milei

(0:11:43) Which macroeconomist would Noah give the highest grade?

(0:13:47) Defining mainstream macro in 2024

(0:18:22) Innovation in macroeconomics

(0:21:48) NGDP targeting

(0:24:35) Keynes and the 15 hour work week

(0:30:25) Is inequality a problem?

(0:34:16) Thomas Piketty and r>g

(0:39:37) Africa’s economic development

(0:44:47) What has Noah changed his mind about recently?

(0:47:59) Noah’s prolific output

(0:52:25) Noah’s goals for the blog

(0:53:41) Anime

(0:55:46) Japanese policy in the US

(0:57:56) Inheritance tax

(1:04:38) Japanese zoning policy

(1:06:12) When is technology dangerous?

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Links

- ⁠Follow Noah on X

- ⁠Noah’s Substack

- ⁠Noah’s podcast “Econ 102”

- ⁠⁠Noah’s podcast with Brad DeLong

- ⁠Noah’s post, “How are Milton Friedman's ideas holding up?”

- Noah’s post, “All futurism is Afrofuturism”

- Noah’s post, “Heterodox vs. mainstream macroeconomics”

- Noah’s post, “Techno-optimism for 2024”

- ⁠Follow Dan on X⁠

- Subscribe to Undertone on ⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Apple⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠, or ⁠⁠Substack⁠⁠

- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with Tyler Cowen, Vitalik Buterin, Scott Sumner, Samo Burja, Steve Hsu, and more.

- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co

- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: ⁠https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A

Tyler and I talk about nearly everything.

Transcript

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Timestamps

(0:00:00) Intro

(0:00:28) Identifying talent on Tyler’s podcast

(0:03:48) Why are follow up questions overrated?

(0:04:21) Tyler’s preferred guest career stage

(0:05:16) Optimal frequency for recording podcasts

(0:05:50) Tyler’s podcast prep

(0:07:39) Importance of in-person episodes

(0:09:56) What would Tyler ask Paul McCartney

(0:10:16) When to read literature in translation

(0:13:31) Tyler on Dostoyevsky and Nietzsche

(0:15:39) Elena Ferrante and the importance of pseudonyms

(0:17:17) Misreading literature

(0:17:56) Will literature get better in the next 10 years?

(0:19:21) Watching complex film

(0:22:14) Enjoying art

(0:23:08) Jonathan Swift and Peter Thiel

(0:24:45) Crude comedy

(0:25:28) Can we trust elites in the internet age?

(0:26:44) Generational theories of politics

(0:27:57) Religious thinkers and Tyler’s implicit theology

(0:29:33) What did Tyler get from Plato at a young age?

(0:30:51) Why are Shakespeare, Proust, and Melville in a league of their own?

(0:31:32) Fernando Pessoa

(0:31:59) Implications of demand sloping down

(0:33:22) Innovation in governance structures

(0:36:14) Should business leaders study the greats?

(0:38:36) GDP growth from today’s AI models

(0:40:35) LessWrong and worries about AI

(0:41:46) Feminized societies in times of chaos

(0:43:17) Fernand Braudel

(0:43:52) Best argument against NGDP targeting

(0:47:06) AI business models

(0:48:19) What is a bubble?

(0:49:33) Where are there too few Emergent Ventures applications?

(0:50:09) Unsolved problems in economics

(0:51:27) Immigration policy

(0:52:56) If Tyler wasn’t an economist

(0:53:50) Would Tyler go to Burning Man?

(0:54:33) The MR Universe

(0:55:32) Tyler’s equanimity

(0:57:15) Tyrone

(0:59:27) Joyce Carol Oates and Susan Sontag

(1:04:45) Wasting time

(1:04:54) Bach’s productivity

(1:05:29) Competitors to MR

(1:07:51) New Jersey and The Sopranos

(1:11:56) Rapid fire - what Tyler learned from different people

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Links

- Follow Tyler on X

- Tyler's blog

- Tyler's podcast

- ⁠Unmasking Elena Ferrante⁠

- New Yorker on Joyce Carol Oates

- Follow Dan on X

- Subscribe to Undertone on ⁠YouTube⁠, ⁠Apple⁠, ⁠Spotify⁠, or ⁠Substack⁠

- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A