Is America In Decline?

Prof. Dr. Alfredo Toro Hardy, a retired Venezuelan diplomat, scholar, and author of multiple books, participates in Risk Roundup to talk about his new book, “America’s Two Cold Wars: From Hegemony to Decline?”

Is America in Decline?

As we witness the world at war, it is vital to understand that warfare itself is going through a fundamental transformation. From conventional warfare, the world is already moving towards hybrid warfare. As a result, while some wars like the Ukraine-Russian crisis are visible, much of the conflict is not visible to most of us.

So, when we evaluate the ongoing warfare in Syria, Russia, Afghanistan, North Korea, and Africa to China, we realize that much has changed in the warfare terrain, tools, and ecosystem. The most significant change is that we are no longer dealing with conventional warfare, but we are witnessing the rise of asymmetric hybrid warfare and the return of the cold war.

Now, over the years, the world has witnessed countless conflicts. For example, the world has seen Islam v the West; regional conflicts versus global disputes; civil war versus religious warfare; ethnic versus sectarian conflicts; progressive versus conservatives, and so on. So, with each battle, the players are different, the motives are other, and so are the warfare tools. The growing geopolitical theories raise a reality check on the rise of the West’s battles with the rest of the world. Undoubtedly, America is a symbol of the West, and it represents the West, so to speak. Since geopolitical stability is foundational for global progress and development, the return of the Cold War creates panic as these wars appear to have no end.

Book Review: America’s Two Cold Wars: From Hegemony to Decline?

America’s Two Cold Wars is a thoughtful, logical, and highly-readable thought leadership. Dr. Hardy has masterfully brought to light an excellent overview of the USSR’s collapse and China’s emergence on the global stage. In addition, Prof. Hardy emphasizes how China is different as a strategic competitor compared to what we have faced with the Soviet Union over the years. Finally, he brings to light how different the United States is today than when it confronted the Soviet Union.  

The book reminds us that the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States had ideology as its core underpinning element. So, as we evaluate the coming cold war 2.0, it is crucial to understand what has shifted and how has the ideology evolved—and what is the focus?

The book states that “Efficiency” is the defining element of the new Cold War. And that contrary to the comparative advantage enjoyed by the United States in its ideological contest with the Soviets, Prof. Hardy believes that the U.S. is poorly prepared for a competition framed in terms of “Efficiency.” One of the main reasons is that many of America’s domestic problems have been left unchecked for a long time.

The book also reminds us that in the final phase of World War II, a network of multilateral organizations, initiatives, and alliances began to take shape under America’s auspices. Through this network, the U.S. positioned itself at the head of a powerful hegemonic system where its legitimacy was sustained by consensual acquiescence. The spectrum of U.S. allies was as diverse as its capability to articulate the system on behalf of its Cold War aims. The question is whether the U.S. alliances and institutions will evolve in the coming years. It is crucial to evaluate this as the two decades that succeeded the end of WWII represented the golden age of America’s foreign policy. So the question is, what will be the U.S. influence in the coming years? It is especially fundamental to understand that America’s foreign policy consistency is inexistent today.

The book brings to light the harsh reality that China accounts for twenty-five percent